Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 1 3/4 cents to $4.19 3/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market continues to show resilience on any price setback, which is keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart for December corn. Slumping winter wheat futures prices that set contract lows today did limit the upside in corn futures.
Ukraine’s corn harvest is likely to reach 31.3 MMT, up from 26.9 MMT in 2024-25, according to Argus Media. However, if realized, it would still lag the five-year average by 9%. Exports are expected to surge nearly 6 MMT from the previous year to 26 MMT. Meantime, Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest is winding down and good harvest weather is expected to continue this week.
World Weather Inc. said frost and a few freezes in the northern U.S. Plains and upper Midwest will likely induce some negative impact on crops Friday through Monday, but it is unclear how significant the frost may be. “Early indications suggest a low impact,” said the forecaster.
Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report (delayed one day due to the holiday Monday) is expected to show U.S. corn sales of 700,000 to 2.2 million MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
Technical analysis: December corn prices are still trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.03 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.24 1/4 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.14 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 1 1/2 cents to $10.33, near the daily high and hit a three-week low early on. December soybean meal rose $1.20 to $283.70, near the daily high after hitting a four-week low early on. December soybean oil rose 9 points to 51.93 cents, near the daily high and hit a nearly three-month low early on today.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex bulls were fading late this week but made a late-session push today to post high-range closes. Lower winter wheat futures prices that hit contract lows today did limit the upside in the soy complex futures.
World Weather Inc. said cool temperatures and mostly favorable subsoil moisture in the U.S. Midwest “will support crops over the next couple of weeks, despite dryness in some areas and erratic rainfall.” Dryness in the Delta and Tennessee River basin will prevail in many areas, “although crop deterioration will be slowed by mild to cool temperatures. Frost and a few freezes in the northern Plains and upper U.S. Midwest will likely induce some negative impact on crops Friday through Monday, but it is unclear how significant the frost may be. Early indications suggest a low impact,” said the forecaster.
Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report (delayed one day due to the holiday Monday) is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 300,000 to 1.6 million MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey..
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.62 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at $10.40 and then at $10.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.21 1/2 and then at $10.10.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at $287.00 and then at $290.00. First support is seen at $280.00 and then at $277.00.
Bean oil bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 55.98 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 52.85 cents and then at 53.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 51.12 cents and then at 50.50 cents.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 2 1/2 cents to $5.19 1/2, nearer the session high and hit a contract low early on. December HRW wheat fell 4 cents to $5.06 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a contract low. Spring wheat futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $5.70 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets continue to suffer from technical selling pressure amid firmly bearish near-term charts that see price downtrends in place.
World Weather Inc. said that in the northern Plains, rainfall in the next seven days will be limited. However, greater rainfall is expected in the second week of the outlook. Areas of frost and some pockets of a light freeze are also still expected in the mornings Saturday and Sunday “with potential for some limited crop damage.” Warmer weather will build into the region next week, said the forecaster.
Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report (delayed one day due to the holiday Monday) is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 300,000 to 700,000 MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey..
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.25 and then at last week’s high of $5.35 1/2. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.14 1/2 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at $5.00 and then at $4.85.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 1 point to 66.20 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market paused today as traders are awaiting fresh fundamental news, including Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, delayed by one day due to the Labor Day holiday Monday. Cotton traders are also anticipating Friday morning’s jobs report, heading into the fall apparel season. The Labor Department jobs report is arguably one of the most important U.S. data points of the month. Analysts expect Friday’s report to extend the weakest stretch of U.S. jobs growth since the pandemic, likely locking in a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. The key nonfarm payrolls number is seen up 75,000 in August, which would mark a fourth straight month of jobs growth below 100,000. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 4.3%, which would be the highest level since 2021.
World Weather Inc. said today’s forecast is much drier for many Texas production areas for the coming week to 10 days “and that will prove to be good for ongoing harvesting in the south and for aggressive crop development in west Texas after recent rain fell.” Temperatures will turn notably cooler after today with some warming likely again at the end of next week. Northern U.S. Delta crops have dried out, resulting in some crop stress. Rain is needed to help the crop finish well. This week’s cooler temperatures will slow crop development rates. The southeastern states will continue to experience a good mix of rain and sunshine as will the southwestern desert region.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 68.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 64.24 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 66.86 cents and then at 67.50 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 65.80 cents and then at 65.50 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.