Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 5 cents to $4.18, nearer the daily low after hitting a six-week high overnight.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures traders today, following recent good gains. Bulls are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart.
USDA Tuesday afternoon reported the U.S. corn crop condition as 69% good or excellent, down 2% from last week, but still up 4% from the same time a year ago. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop declined 4.4 points from last week and is 11 points above last year.
Allendale in a press release has projected the U.S. corn crop production at 16.631 billion bushels (average 187.52 bu.) and a U.S. soybean crop of 4.268 billion bu. (average yield 53.28 bu.). The survey was conducted from August 18-29.
Corn for ethanol use in July was reported at 455.817 million bushels. This is up from June 2025’s usage of 446.897 million bushels, but down from July of 2024’s use of 483.87 million bushels. Corn use for ethanol has dipped slightly from usual over the last couple months.
World Weather Inc. reports temperatures in the Midwest will be colder to much colder than normal through Tuesday before next Wednesday into late next week is warmer. Frost may occur in a few locations from eastern North Dakota to central and northern Wisconsin Thursday and Sunday and in a few far northwestern locations Saturday. “A few crops may be harmed by the cold with temperatures not likely cold enough in a large enough area to have a significant impact on total U.S. crop production,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: December corn futures prices are still trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.03 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.20 and then at today’s high of $4.24 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.14 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 9 1/2 cents to $10.31 1/2, nearer the session low and hit a two-week low. December soybean meal fell $1.30 to $282.50, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil fell 82 points to 51.84 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market continues to be pulled down by the sickly soybean meal futures market.
Bulls got no traction today after USDA this morning said private exporters reported sales of 185,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2025-26 marketing year.
USDA this week rated the soybean crop was 65% “good” to “excellent,” down 4% from the previous week, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating increased 2% to 10%. On our CCI, the soybean crop declined 7 points to 366.7 from last week and is less than .1 of a point above a year-ago
Soybean crush in July was reported to be 204.758 million bushels. That is up 7.8 million bushels from June 2025, and up 11.484 million bushels from July 2024. Despite stronger than year-ago performance so far, crush will need to continue to average 9.8% above last-year’s pace to meet USDA’s crush use estimate.
World Weather Inc. reports today’s forecast for the Midwest is drier overall than what was advertised Tuesday, with the reduction in rain not likely to have much of an impact on crop yields, while crop maturation and fieldwork should occur in a mostly favorable environment through the next two weeks. Much of the region will have either received rain Tuesday into this morning or will receive at least some rain by Friday “that will induce minor improvements in soybean yields with potential rain after that likely too late to have much of an impact on crop yields in most areas,” said the forecaster. Temperatures will be colder to much colder than normal through Tuesday before next Wednesday into late next week is warmer. Frost may occur in a few locations from eastern North Dakota to central and northern Wisconsin Thursday and Sunday and in a few far northwestern locations Saturday. “A few crops may be harmed by the cold with temperatures not likely cold enough in a large enough area to have a significant impact on total U.S. crop production,” said World Weather.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.62 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.47 3/4 and then at $10.55. First support is seen at $10.25 and then at $10.15.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at $285.00 and then at this week’s high of $289.10. First support is seen at this week’s low of $282.20 and then at $280.00.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 55.98 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 51.35 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 52.85 cents and then at 53.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 51.68 cents and then at 51.35 cents.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 6 1/4 cents to $5.22, near the daily low. December HRW wheat fell 1 cent to $5.10 1/4, nearer the daily low and closed at another contract low close. Spring wheat December futures fell 1 1/4 cents to $5.73.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more chart-based selling pressure today as prices hover near their recent contract lows. Bulls got no help from today’s weaker U.S. dollar index.
USDA Tuesday afternoon reported the U.S. spring wheat harvest as 72% complete as of Sunday, 1% ahead of the five-year average. Dryer conditions in the Dakotas and northwest interior allowed for harvest to catch up after it had been lagging slightly earlier this year.
The Ukraine Agri Council estimated the country’s wheat production at 21.8 million tons, down slightly from 22.7 in 2024. The group also expects harvest of the crop is nearly 98% complete at this time.
World Weather Inc. said rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas recently has soil moisture poised well for early season planting and emergence. “Some greater sunshine would be great for getting farmers into the fields after recent moisture gains.” Additional bouts of frost in Canada’s Prairies and the northern U.S. Plains this weekend should not harm most of the cereal crops, “which should be sufficiently mature,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.35 1/2 and then at the August high of $5.42 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.17 1/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.06 3/4 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 16 points to 66.21 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market paused today after recent selling pressure that has put the bears back in near-term technical control. A wobbly U.S. stock market this week is keeping bulls in the cotton market timid.
USDA Tuesday afternoon reported the U.S. cotton crop was in 51% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, 36% fair and 13% poor to very poor condition.
World Weather Inc. said beneficial rain has fallen in the past week across the Texas Panhandle, central parts of west Texas and in the Blacklands. More rain is needed in the southwestern dryland production areas of west Texas and the region may have to wait until next week for additional rain. Dry weather in south Texas and the Coastal Bend recently was good for cotton harvesting. U.S. Delta crops have dried out greatly, resulting in some crop stress. “Rain is needed to help the crop finish well.” This week’s cooler temperatures will slow crop development rates. The southeastern states will continue to experience a good mix of rain and sunshine as will the southwestern desert region. California crops will remain dependent upon irrigation and seasonable temperatures for the best development, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 68.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 64.24 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 66.86 cents and then at 67.50 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 65.80 cents and then at 65.50 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.