Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 5 cents to $4.02, near the daily low and hit a contract low.
Fundamental analysis: The prospect of a record-setting U.S. corn crop to be harvested this fall continues to press the corn futures market lower. Technical selling was featured today as key chart support levels have been breached on the downside.
USDA today reported a daily U.S. corn sale of 128,000 MT to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 73% “good” to “excellent” and 7% “poor” to “very poor” unchanged from last week. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop declined less than a point to 384.8.
World Weather Inc. today said the Corn Belt will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained more power this week. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.25. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.06 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $4.12 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.02 1/4 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 3 3/4 cents to $9.90 3/4 and near the daily low. September soybean meal closed steady at $277.00, nearer the daily low after hitting a four-week high early on. September soybean oil fell 63 points to 53.77 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: A good-looking U.S. soybean crop and lower corn and wheat futures prices today keep the soybean complex bulls mostly on the sidelines. Meal’s price action today was still somewhat impressive, given the sell offs in the other grain markets.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 69% “good” to “excellent” condition, down one percentage point from last week, and 7% “poor” to “very poor,” which was up a point on the week. The Pro Farmer CCI rating this week came in at 369.95. down a point but remains one point above year-ago.
World Weather Inc. today said the U.S. Midwest will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development “and very high production potentials.” However, some areas will dry down significantly during the next two weeks “but a combination of favorable subsoil moisture in place and a lack of widespread heat for at least another week and at least some rain will ensure crops have adequate soil moisture into the latter part of the month.”
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.43 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $9.71 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.02 1/4 and then at $10.12 1/4. First support is seen at this week and last week’s low of $9.86 and then at $9.75.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $262.50. First resistance comes in at $280.00 and then at today’s high of $282.00. First support is seen at $272.50 and then at $270.00.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.91 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 54.94 cents and then at 56.00 cents. First support is seen at 53.50 cents and then at 52.92 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 8 1/2 cents to $5.28 1/2, near the daily low and hit a contract low. December HRW wheat fell 12 1/4 cents to $5.25 1/4, near the daily low and hit a contract low. December spring wheat futures fell 3 1/2 cents to $5.92 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling featured today as the charts remain firmly bearish, with no early clues that market bottoms are close at hand. Lower corn futures prices today also keep wheat bulls on the sidelines.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 48% “good” to “excellent” and 17% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the spring wheat crop rating fell 1.6 points to 344.2.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. wheat production has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains should be winding down soon. Dryness in the Pacific Northwest hurt dryland production this year while irrigated crops likely performed normally. Wheat conditions in Canada’s Prairies are a concern with parts of the eastern Prairies losing yield potential because of dryness. Some rain will fall this week and next week to offer a little relief; though, much of the rain comes a little too late in the season for a serious production change.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.37 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $5.43. First support is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.15.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.37 and then at this week’s high of $5.43 1/2. First support is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.15.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 47 points to 67.11 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting by the speculators. Lower crude oil prices today did limit the upside for cotton, as did a wobbly U.S. stock market at present.
USDA Monday afternoon reported the U.S. cotton crop in 55% good to excellent condition, with 15% poor to very poor condition. Five-percent of bolls are opening, with 87% of the crop squaring.
World Weather Inc. today said unirrigated West Texas cotton areas still need greater rain and some additional warm weather to support the best dryland production. Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. Timely rain will become increasingly more important as the next two weeks move along to ensure the best crop development and yield potential. South Texas crops are maturing and beginning to be harvested. U.S. Delta crops are drying down and timely rain may eventually be needed. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation are also expected to receive periodic rain with some of that moderate to heavy this week. Meantime, Argentina cotton weather will be dry biased for much of the coming week to ten days favoring late season harvest progress. The same is true for Mato Grosso, Bahia and some immediate neighboring areas in Brazil.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.50 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at 67.00 cents and then at 66.27 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.