Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.45 3/4, nearer the daily low after hitting a six-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw modest selling pressure from risk aversion in the general marketplace amid the U.S.-Iran war. A strong rally in the U.S. dollar index today was also a negative for the corn market, as were solid losses in the winter wheat futures markets.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.86 MMT during the week ended Feb. 26, down 161,615 MT from the previous week , but continued to run 45.3% ahead of year ago. Net inspections topped analysts’ pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.6 MMT.
Some fertilizer prices rose following the impact of the escalating Middle East conflict on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, according to metals consultancy, CRU Group.
Safras & Mercado estimates Brazil’s 2025-26 corn output at 14.71 MMT, compared to its previous estimate of 142.88 MMT. The second sarinha corn corp is estimated at 100.59 MMT, down from 101.79 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said rain into Thursday will favor northern Brazil, where soil moisture will be left favorable for crop development and for long-term Safrinha corn prospects. Central and especially southern Brazil and Paraguay will see much less rain than northern Brazil through Thursday and fieldwork should advance well before a timely round of rain occurs Friday into Tuesday of next week. Drier weather will return to southern Brazil and Paraguay Mar. 11-16 and the soil is likely to quickly dry out again leaving Safrinha corn vulnerable to quick increases in crop stress if rain does not increase soon. In Argentina, rain will increase today and much of Argentina outside of some southern areas will benefit from multiple rounds of rain and will see notable improvements in crop and soil conditions by this weekend while fieldwork is slowed. Much of Argentina will see little rain and improving to favorable conditions for fieldwork Mar. 9-13, before another timely round of rain likely occurs Mar. 14-16, restoring some of the soil moisture lost to evaporation.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.56 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.34. First resistance is seen at $4.50 and then at today’s high of $4.52 1/2. First support is seen at $4.40 and then at $4.37.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 6 3/4 cents to $11.64, nearer the daily low and hit a 10-month high overnight. May soybean meal fell $7.60 to $312.90, nearer the daily low. May soybean oil rose 89 points to 62.74, near the daily low and hit another contract high and a two-year high today.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures market today saw selling pressure from keener risk aversion in the general marketplace, as well as a strong rally in the U.S. dollar index to a six-week high. Soybean rallied on notions of better biodiesel blending volumes coming to market this year. Spreaders were again featured buying bean oil and selling meal today, although today’s low-range close in bean oil suggests the bulls are now exhausted following the recent runup.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1.14 MMT during the week ended Feb. 26, up 456,037 MT from the previous weekend within the pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
U.S. soybean processors likely crushed 6.789 million short tons, or 226.3 million bushels, of soybeans in January, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of this afternoon’s USDA monthly crush report.
AgRural lowered its Brazilian soybean production forecast to 178 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 181 MMT amid drought=related yield losses in Rio Grande do Sul.
World Weather Inc. today said good field and weather conditions are expected for soybean maturation and harvesting over the next week. Rainy weather will continue for a little while longer from northern Minas Gerais to Maranhao and Piaui, where some delay to farming activity is expected. Recent drying and that expected early to mid-week this week from southern Mato Grosso and areas south to Rio Grande do Sul should be closely monitored. Timely rain is expected late this week into early next week before additional drying occurs which makes the rain event very important in preserving favorable soil moisture for long-term crop development. Argentina needs greater rain in the east and some of that need will be fulfilled by rain late this week into early next week.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, today’s price action begins to suggest the bulls are near-term exhausted. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.70 and then at today’s high of $11.85. First support is seen at $11.50 and then at last week’s low of $11.43.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $320.60 and then at last week’s high of $325.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $311.90 and then at $306.70.
Bean oil bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is short-term overbought and due for a corrective pullback, and the bulls appear tired now. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 65.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 58.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 63.00 cents and then at 64.00 cents. First support is seen at 62.00 cents and then at 61.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW fell 14 1/4 cents to $5.77 1/4, near the daily low after hitting an eight-month high overnight. May HRW lost 5 3/4 cents to $5.74 3/4, nearer the daily low after also hitting an eight-month high overnight. May spring wheat futures closed 2 3/4 cents lower at $6.10.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace today, as well as a big rally in the U.S. dollar index, were also negatives for the wheat markets today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 344,272 MT during the week ended Feb. 26, down 219,148 MT from the previous week but are still 18.8% ahead of year ago. Net inspections were within the pre-report range of 250,000 to 450,000 MT
Ukraine’s winter crops are in “relatively satisfactory” condition but up to 20% of the crops might be lost due to severe frosts in February, according to scientists of the Ukrainian National Academy of Agrarian Sciences.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, rainfall in the next seven days will be mainly limited to central and especially eastern production areas. The western Texas Panhandle to eastern Colorado and western Kansas will likely experience net drying. Strong to severe thunderstorms are a possibility in eastern areas, mainly Thursday and Friday. The greatest precipitation is still likely in eastern areas during the second week of the outlook; however, there will be some better opportunity for moisture in the west as well when the main upper-level storm system moves east. In the Northern Plains, any precipitation in the next seven days will occur mainly Thursday into Friday and involve rain and snow. Greater snowfall is likely in the second week of the outlook. Temperatures will be unusually warm this week. However, a shift to below-average temperatures will likely occur next week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. However, today’s price action suggests the winter wheat bulls have at least temporarily run out of gas. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at today’s high of $6.03 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.35. First resistance is seen at $5.85 and then at $5.95. First support is seen at $5.70 and then at last week’s low of $5.63 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.80 and then at $5.90. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.56 3/4 and then at $5.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton lost 102 points to 64.59 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures traders, after recent gains. Risk aversion in the general marketplace and a strong rally in the U.S. dollar index were also negatives for cotton futures today.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in March and April. Some showers may evolve later this week into next week, but a general soaking seems a little unlikely. West Texas also needs rain and only light amounts are expected for a while. California will fall back to a drier bias after some rain fell recently. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potential later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into a part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical. This region will get some timely rain in the next couple of weeks, although drought status will remain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the price uptrend alive. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the January high of 67.11 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 65.76 cents and then at 66.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.53 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.