Advice Alert: Soybean producers: Finish old-crop sales... Prices surged in recent days and are challenging $12.00 resistance. Prices are near-term overbought and risk remains, especially for old-crop. Sell the remaining 10% of 2025 production to get to 100% sold. Reports of China demand and weather concerns have driven new-crop futures higher as well. Advance new-crop sales an additional 15% to take advantage of the increase in price. While the rally can continue, the market remains fast and fluid. With higher acres and export demand unknown, price protection is prudent. You should now be 100% sold on 2025 production. Cash only marketers should now be 45% forward sold on anticipated 2026 production while hedgers should be 25% forward sold with hedges on an additional 40% of expected production.
Corn
Price action: December corn fell 8 cents to $4.56 1/4, near the daily low and hit a five-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw what is so far routine profit taking pressure and a corrective pullback from recent good gains.
Traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report and Friday’s late-morning USDA monthly supply and demand report.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see several more days of highly favorable conditions for corn pollination and other crop development as there will be a lack of significant heat in much of the region along with moist soils and at least some rain. Heat will return to areas in and near eastern South Dakota Saturday where some areas will see highs in the middle and upper 90s. Warmer weather will occur Sunday into at least late next week while a drier weather pattern occurs Saturday into July 22, with western areas warmest where some crops may be stressed by the heat with eastern South Dakota and nearby areas should be hottest initially. The lingering dry areas from eastern South Dakota to eastern Nebraska into northwestern and north-central Iowa may soon see increasing crop stress as moisture from recent rain is lost to evaporation. The coming heat and dryness will be poorly timed for pollinating corn in the warmer and drier areas and some reductions in yield potential may result.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.70. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.25 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.65 3/4 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at $4.55 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 5 1/2 cents to $11.92 1/4, near the daily low and hit a six-week high early on. September soybean meal fell $4.80 to $309.70, nearer the daily low. September soybean oil rose 222 points to 70.38 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market paused today following recent good gains. Meal was pressured and bean oil supported by spreaders buying bean oil and selling meal as crude oil prices surged today.
Soybean bulls got no lasting traction from USDA this morning reporting daily sales of 472,000 MT of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total, 136,000 MT is for 2025-26 and 336,000 MT is for 2026-27. “China has purchased more U.S. soybeans, extending a wave of buying as agricultural trade between the world’s two largest economies gathers pace. State-owned trading firm Cofco Corp. booked at least another five cargoes overnight for loading mainly between September and October, according to people familiar with the matter, who declined to be named as they weren’t authorized to speak to the media. The purchases follow at least six cargoes booked earlier in the week,” said a Bloomberg report.
Traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report and Friday’s late-morning USDA monthly supply and demand report.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. crops vary from dry parts of the far northwestern Corn Belt to excessively wet in some central Midwest locations. The coming week of weather will provide some rain and sunshine while maintaining seasonably warm temperatures. The end result should be mostly good for the soybean crop, although there is potential for some heavy rainfall in the lower eastern Midwest. Crop moisture stress may worsen over the weekend and into early next week in the northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.14. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.04 and then at $12.14. First support is seen at $11.86 3/4 and then at $11.75.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $315.00 and then at $320.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $308.00 and then at this week’s low of $303.00.
Bean oil sees prices have seen a downtrend on the daily bar chart negated. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at 71.00 cents and then at 72.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 68.33 cents and then at 67.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW lost 10 3/4 cents to $6.07 3/4, near the daily low and hit a five-week high early on. September HRW lost 7 1/2 cents to $6.45 1/4, near the daily low and hit a three-week high early on. September spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $6.30 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw selling pressure from weaker corn and soybean prices today. Look for the wheat futures markets to continue to follow the lead of corn in the near term.
For a historical perspective on U.S. wheat production and planting trends, clickhere for a very informative story by Debbie Carlson.
Traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report and Friday’s late-morning USDA monthly supply and demand report.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, a mostly good mix of weather is predicted over the next two weeks for wheat maturation and harvesting. There will be some showers and thunderstorms periodically, though resulting rainfall is unlikely to be great enough to seriously threaten unharvested crops. In the Northern Plains, excessive heat will build across the crop region by this weekend, with highs reaching near 110 degrees Fahrenheit in portions of South Dakota. Evaporation will be amplified across the crop region, as well as energy usage, and crop and livestock stress. More rainfall will be needed to maintain or improve soil conditions in the western portions of the crop region.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing fields. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.26 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.74. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.27 and then at $6.40. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.85.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.64 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.64 1/2 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.34 and then at $6.20.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures closed down 62 points to 80.67 cents, near mid-range on a corrective pullback after posting limit-up daily gains on Tuesday.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw selling pressure today from weaker grain prices, weaker U.S. stock indexes and a general risk-off trading day in the general marketplace. Selling interest was limited amid recent news that the U.S. and China relations have warmed up, including recent China U.S. soybean buys. Cotton bulls are hoping China could also pick up the pace on U.S. cotton purchases.
World Weather Inc. today said light showers will occur in the Panhandle today into Thursday before nearly all cotton areas in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma benefit from at least some rain Friday into next Wednesday, when daily showers and thunderstorms affect the region. Rain Friday into next Wednesday should not be great enough to induce lasting increases in soil moisture but combined with recent rain the moisture will allow some dryland cotton to continue to develop deeper into the month. Some computer forecast models are advertising significant and beneficial rain across West Texas July 15-16 and a close watch on the period will be made with these models likely exaggerating rainfall potentials. Little rain is expected July 16-22 and greater rain will be needed soon to prevent the moisture from the coming rain from being lost to evaporation. Showers will be more numerous during the next two weeks in South Texas, the Blacklands, and the Coastal Bend than what has occurred recently, but rain is likely to be too light and infrequent to prevent much of the region from drying down overall. Topsoil moisture has become short while subsoil moisture is still supportive of cotton development in most areas.
Traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report and Friday’s late-morning USDA monthly supply and demand report.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are working on a near-term price uptrend. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 82.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 77.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 81.30 cents and then at 82.00 cents. First support is seen at 79.00 cents and then at 80.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.