Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 11 1/2 cents to $4.30, near the daily low and hit a contract low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw heavy selling pressure as weather forecasters are saying a heat dome presently over much of the Corn Belt will exit later this week, followed by cooler weather with decent rain chances. Weak long liquidation from the recent would-be bargain hunters was featured today, as well as fresh technical selling as the price downtrend on the daily chart has been restarted. Position evening ahead of Tuesday’s USDA’s planted acreage and quarterly grains stocks reports was also featured.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.786 MMT during the week ended June 25, down 318,543 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were near the upper end of the expected pre-report range of 1.5 to 1.8 MMT.
Traders are also awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 68% good to excellent condition as of Sunday—the same as last week and compares to 73% last year.
World Weather Inc. today said drier areas in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt will see regular rounds of rain through this weekend that will result in important increases in soil moisture that will be needed when drier weather returns July 6-13. The southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt will be warm to hot and dry most often into Saturday and the abundant soil moisture in place in most areas will support crop development while keeping humidity levels high enough to prevent excessive heat from evolving before many areas receive at least some rain Sunday. Soil moisture will still be adequate when drier weather occurs July 6-13 and that soil moisture will be important in supporting corn pollination and other crop development with greater rain needed soon to ensure crop have adequate soil moisture. Some showers will occur July 6-13 and these showers will slow drying rates and will be beneficial for corn pollination, but significant increases in soil moisture are not likely to result.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.35 and then at $4.40. First support is seen at $4.25 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 17 1/4 cents to $11.39, nearer the daily low. September soybean meal lost $1.00 to $301.30, nearer the daily high. September soybean oil fell 70 points to 68.04 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex today saw selling pressure come from weather in the Midwest that remains overall non-threatening, despite a heat some presently stationed over much of the Corn Belt. That heat dome is not expected to last and rain chances are good into the extended forecast for the region. Big losses in corn also spilled over into selling in the soy complex. Position evening ahead of Tuesday’s USDA’s planted acreage and quarterly grains stocks reports was also featured.
USDA this morning reported daily export sales of 136,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations during 2026-27. The agency also reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 419,124 MT during the week ended June 25, up 146,983 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the expected pre-report range of 350,000 to 550,000 MT.
Traders are also awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 66% good to excellent condition as of Sunday—the same as last week and last year at the same time.
World Weather Inc. today said some beneficial moisture fell in a part of the drier areas of South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota during the weekend, just before a period of very warm to hot weather impacts the region. Not much rain will fall in the area again for the next week to nine days. In contrast, flooding rain occurred during the weekend in southern Indiana and Kentucky threatening some crop areas. This week’s drier and warm weather will be good for all crops, although it will be quite warm and humid.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $11.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.50 and then at last week’s high of $11.60 1/4. First support is seen at $11.30 and then at the June low of $11.21 3/4.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $307.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $302.00 and then at last week’s high of $304.50. First support is seen at the June low of $298.80 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil sees prices now trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 73.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 69.24 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 66.59 cents and then at the June low of 65.90 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW fell 10 cents to $5.79 3/4, near the daily low and hit a more-than-four-month low. September HRW lost 4 3/4 cents to $6.14 3/4, near the daily low and hit a 3.5-month low. September spring wheat futures fell 4 1/2 cents to $6.00 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling pressure today amid price downtrends in place on the daily bar charts. Big losses in the corn futures market today also spilled over into selling in wheat markets. Position evening ahead of Tuesday’s USDA’s planted acreage and quarterly grains stocks reports was also featured.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 358,253 MT during the week ended June 25, down 37,861 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were short of analysts’ pre-report range of 400,000 to 550,000 MT.
Argus raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2026-27 to 91.2 MMT, the highest since the record 2023-24 harvest after a virtual crop tour showed stronger production prospects, according to Reuters.
Wheat traders are also awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop in 26% good to excellent condition as of Sunday—the same as last week and compares to 48% last year at the same time. For U.S. spring wheat, the crop is seen at 55% good to excellent condition as of Sunday and compares to 54% last week and 53% last year at the same time.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, better winter wheat maturation and harvest conditions are expected across the central and southwestern Plains, where rainfall will become more restricted in the next 10 days. Temperatures will be warm to hot and that should accelerate drying rates between showers and thunderstorms. Summer crop conditions and livestock will be stressed at times. In the Northern Plains, generally favorable conditions in the eastern half of the crop region will persist. Warmer-biased temperatures will increase some evaporations in the region. More rainfall will be needed to maintain soil conditions in the western portions of the crop region.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.42. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.93 1/2 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at $5.75 and then at $5.65.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.78 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.30 and then at $6.40. First support is seen at $6.10 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 7 points to 76.45 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a tepid corrective bounce from Friday’s weakness. Gains in the U.S. stock indexes and in crude oil prices today were somewhat positive outside markets for cotton. Traders now await Tuesday’s midday USDA planted acreage update. Before that comes this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said cotton areas in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see isolated to scattered showers most days during the next two weeks and drying rates will be slowed by the resulting rain, but rain will be mostly too light and poorly organized to induce significant improvements in soil moisture. Rain should fall frequently enough in areas with adequate soil moisture to support some cotton development while the drier areas are not likely to receive enough rain to significantly improve soil or crop conditions. Little rain is expected during the next two weeks in South Texas, the Blacklands, and the Coastal Bend where the topsoil has become short of moisture while subsoil moisture is still great enough to support most cotton development. By the third week of July subsoil moisture will be short enough in many areas that greater rain will be needed soon.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 80.47 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at 78.00 cents and then at 79.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 75.50 cents and then at 75.17 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.