Corn
Price action: September corn rose 6 cents to $4.22 3/4, while December futures rose 6 1/4 cents to $4.42 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures saw extended buying, with a close held above the 10-day moving average, which improves prospects of additional strength.
The bearish 800-pound gorilla in the trading room remains generally very good growing weather over most of the Midwest. However, USDA’s lower-than-expected quarterly stocks data on Tuesday pointed to strong usage. Meanwhile planted acreage came in slightly above analyst estimates, final tallies have fallen below the June report in 14 of the past 20 years (last year being an outlier).
Traders will continue to watch weather, which has turned warmer and more volatile in recent weeks across the U.S. along with key global growing regions. Export demand will also remain a major focus, with a particular focus on China, though strong global feed and ethanol demand continue to lend notable support.
In the U.S., significant and notable improvements in soil moisture are expected to occur into this weekend in the direst areas from eastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota and into north-central Iowa and south-central Minnesota while areas to the north see lighter and beneficial rain, according to World Weather Inc. Meanwhile, eastern Kansas to the eastern Corn Belt will be warm to hot and will see limited rain into Thursday, though soil moisture levels are favorable and should mostly support crop development.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, Tuesday’s technically bullish “key reversal” is one chart clue that the market has put in a near-term bottom. It must be noted, however, that December corn last week also produced a bullish key reversal up—and prices sunk still lower. A price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.45 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4.35 1/2 and then at $4.30.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 5 1/2 cents to $11.49 1/4, near mid-range. September soybean meal gained $1.60 to $303.5, near mid-range. September soybean oil fell 13 points to 66.31 cents, nearer the daily high but hit a nine-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex today saw mixed action as soybeans continue in their modest uptrend, meal bounced off solid support and soyoil saw continued relative weakness. A continuation of yesterday’s strength in soybeans was a positive sign and the ongoing uptrend looks promising that a near-term low is in place.
Traders are looking to this afternoon crush reports from USDA, which are expected to show May crush of 214.9 million bushels, a record for the month, according to a Reuters poll. Soyoil stocks are expected to slide to a five-month low of 2.214 billion lbs.
Price gains were again limited by growing weather in the Midwest that remains overall non-threatening, despite a heat some presently stationed over much of the Corn Belt. That heat dome is not expected to last and rain chances are good into the extended forecast for the region.
World Weather Inc. today said that while the high pressure ridge over the Midwest is responsible for this week’s hot, humid weather, it is expected to shift to the west over the weekend, bringing cooler air to the northwest to southeast, bringing relatively cooler temps along with some potential precipitation.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $11.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at $11.70 and then at $11.80. First support is seen at the overnight low of $11.39 1/4 and then at $11.30.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $307.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at $307.70 and then at $310.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $301.50 and then at $300.00.
Bean oil sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 70.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.00 cents and then at Tuesday’s high of 68.10 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 10 3/4 cents to $6.00, nearer the daily high. September HRW gained 9 3/4 cents to $6.35, nearer the daily high. September spring wheat futures rose 12 cents to $6.18 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw follow-through buying today as traders digested reports that there are fewer wheat acres than expected in both the U.S. and Canada yesterday. The lower wheat acres compounds the problem of already poor yields in the southern U.S. Plains.
World weather today said areas from eastern Nebraska into south-central Minnesota will see significant rains that should boost soil moisture this weekend. Areas further south from eastern Kansas into the eastern Corn Belt are expected to be hot and dry over that time, which should allow for some crop maturation and harvest to resume assuming fields are dry enough. Europe remains gripped in a heat wave, with France at the center of crop stress. Areas in southern England and western Germany are also stressed to a lesser extent. The forecast for the next two weeks sees some rain to bring relief in central and eastern Europe.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still below long-term resistance at the 100-day moving average of $6.17 1/2. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.26 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is to close prices below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at $6.10 and then at $6.20. First support is seen at the overnight low of $5.86 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $5.74.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.64 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.40 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.10 3/4 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 104 points to 77.84 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw continued technical buying today as a fledgling price uptrend is now in place. Gains in U.S. stock indexes early today were also supportive for cotton. Cotton futures ultimately saw a mid-range close just above the 10-day moving average of 77.83 cents.
World Weather Inc. today said cotton growing areas in west Texas and Oklahoma have a chance to see beneficial rain expected today through early next week. Longer-term, the area is likely to see isolated showers over the coming weeks that will have limited impacts to crop and soil conditions. Little rain is expected over the next two weeks in South Texas, the Blacklands, and the Coastal Bend where topsoil is beginning to become short of moisture. The Delta and Southeastern U.S. is experiencing hot and dry weather currently, but rainfall is expected to be regular over the coming weeks and should support soil moisture. The San Joaquin Valley and southern Arizona are expected to be dry through much of the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 80.47 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at 79.00 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 75.50 cents and then at 75.17 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.