Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1 1/2 cents to $5.34 1/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw profit-taking pressure and some weak long liquidation today, ahead of this afternoon’s Fed FOMC meeting’s conclusion. Selling interest was somewhat limited by seemingly relentless rains and some flooding in Iowa. Sharply lower crude oil prices today were also a negative for the corn market.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report, which is expected to show U.S. corn sales of 1 million to 2 million MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Corn Belt regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the next week and although harvesting will be slowed most crops are not ready to be harvested. Where crops are ready to be harvested in the south, rain should be infrequent enough to allow harvesting to advance well overall. At least some additional rain in the southwestern and south-central Midwest will induce beneficial increases in soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment while other winter wheat areas in need of rain will also benefit from rain by early next week. Some heavy rain will fall from Thursday into Saturday from eastern South Dakota to Wisconsin to Michigan and some local flooding may result. Drier weather will resume Sep. 23-30 and that will be important where heavy rain falls early next week with planting of winter wheat and harvesting of summer crops likely to advance well overall during the period of drier weather.
Technical analysis: Corn market still bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out and bulls appear tired. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.44. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.23 1/4 and then at $5.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 1 3/4 cents to $13.20 1/2, near mid-range. December soybean meal rose $0.20 to $365.60, nearer the daily high and hit a 2.5-year high for the contract. December soybean oil fell 68 points to 69.67 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex markets saw overnight gains fade during the day session. A big drop in crude oil and nervousness in the general marketplace ahead of today’s FOMC meeting conclusion likely prompted some position-evening selling pressure.
Soy complex traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 900,000 to 2.4 million MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said wetter weather in the northern Corn Belt and additional moisture in the west-central production areas will help fix long-term moisture deficits, but delaying crop maturation and harvest progress. Meantime, canola in South Africa and Australia is suspected of being well-established and poised to perform well, although there is some concern over El Nino’s influence on spring and summer weather in the east where heat and dryness are expected later this month. Early season rainfall in parts of Brazil may lead to earlier than usual planting of soybeans. Center-west advertised rainfall has been reduced for a while and that may lead to some replanting if producers got into their fields and started planting too early this year.
Technical analysis: November soybeans bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at $13.25 and then at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $12.92 and then at $12.75.
Soybean meal sees a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls seem tired at present. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $375.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $347.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $368.70 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at $360.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $353.30.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 72.23 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at 69.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 68.23 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 2 1/4 cents to $7.30 3/4, nearer the session high. December HRW gained 3 1/3 cents to $7.99 1/2, nearer the session high. December spring wheat futures rose 7 1/2 cents to $7.56, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some mild profit taking and weak long liquidation for much of the session, but buyer interest intensified late to push prices above unchanged by the close. Some of the session was likely position-evening ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting conclusion. Sharply lower crude oil prices today also limited buying interest in wheat futures.
Ukrainian farmers have started the winter wheat sowing for the 2027 harvest, however the winter wheat sowing area could decrease to about 4.5 million hectares, down from 4.7 million in 2026, according to agriculture ministry data.
FranceAgriMer sharply reduced its forecast for French soft wheat exports this season earlier today, now down 10% on the year. A shift in wheat demand towards animal feed to replace corn is also expected, with the corn smallest corn crop since the 1970’s due to heat and drought.
Wheat traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, expected to show 200,000 to 500,000 MT in U.S. wheat sales in all marketing years.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, pockets of improved soil moisture will occur during the next 10 days but there will be portions of wheat country still needing significant rain. Most of those areas that get rain will not likely get enough to fully restore soil moisture to normal and there will be a fair amount of the production region still looking for greater rain on October 1. Summer crop maturation and harvest progress will advance relatively well around what showers and thunderstorms evolve in the next 10 days to two weeks. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside seasonable to warmer than usual temperatures. Rainfall will inhibit fieldwork, though increased moisture will be beneficial in supporting the development of winter crops.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW are in jeopardy of being negated. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $7.95. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.85. First resistance is seen at $7.35 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $7.10 and then at $7.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at $8.10 and then at $8.20. First support is seen at this week’s low of $7.78 1/4 and then at $7.65.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 12 points to 84.36 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a pause today, ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting conclusion. Sharp losses in crude oil futures today did limit buying interest in cotton futures.
Cotton traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said the two-week outlook for western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma is wetter than what was advertised Tuesday and showers will occur most days through the next 10 days and irrigated cotton will benefit from the moisture while the rain will come too late to benefit most dryland cotton. Light showers will occur in some western parts of western Texas today and Friday. Showers will occur Saturday into Monday and much of the region will receive at least some rain with totals up to 0.75” and locally more common. Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday into Friday of next week when much of the region receives 0.35-1.50” and locally more with some bands of heavier rain followed by scattered and mostly light showers Sep. 26-27. Some cotton discoloration is likely to result from the rain and drier weather advertised for the last days of September will be important in drying out cotton bolls and bleaching the fibers white. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see occasional rounds of mostly light showers through the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting should occur in a mostly favorable environment as there should be enough drying time between showers to dry out cotton fibers.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures see prices trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 86.51 cents and then at 87.50 cents. First support is seen at 83.50 cents and then at 83.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.