Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 3 3/4 cents to $4.21 3/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Once again, the corn market bulls stepped in to buy the overnight/early morning dip in prices.
USDA again reported solid U.S. corn export inspections of 1.44 MMT for the week ended Sept. 4, up 33,190 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 1.7 MMT.
Brazilian farmers have started to plant their first corn crop of the 2025-26 season, said AgRural. Progress was estimated to be 12% complete in center-south Brazil, which is slightly below 15% planted for the same period a year ago.
World Weather Inc. said rain in the U.S. Midwest will be infrequent and mostly light during the next two weeks “and crop maturation and fieldwork should advance well, while minor declines in crop yields occur in some southern areas” but most crops are too advanced to see declines in yields. Some showers are likely, however, and a few crops should benefit from the moisture with coverage of significant rain in the drier areas not likely great enough to induce widespread increases in yields. “Much of the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt would benefit from greater rain to improve winter crop prospects,” said the forecaster.
This afternoon’s USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 68% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, according to a Bloomberg poll. This compares to 69% last week and 65% last year at the same time. The corn crop is expected to be 5% harvested.
Technical analysis: December corn futures prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.03 1/2. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $4.24 1/4 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.14 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 6 3/4 cents to $10.33 3/4, near the daily high. December soybean meal rose $1.60 to $285.60, nearer the daily high. December soybean oil rose 24 points to 51.47 cents, near mid-range and hit a nearly three-month low early on today.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean, meal and bean oil futures markets today saw some short covering and perceived bargain hunting after recent selling pressure. The bulls need to put together a winning streak to suggest near-term market bottoms are in place.
USDA this morning reported U.S. soybean export inspections of 452,151 MT, down 39,277 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
China imported a record volume of soybeans for August to build a buffer against possible shortages amid a protracted trade war with the U.S. China, the world’s biggest soybean importer, purchased 12.28 million MT in August, the highest ever recorded for the month, shoring up local availability before U.S. supplies begin to dominate the global market this fall.
Farmers in Brazil have kicked off 2025-26 soybean plantings, according to AgRural. Brazilian soybean production for 2025-26 is expected to total 180.92 MMT, a 5.3% increase over the previous season.
World Weather Inc. said temperatures were chilly during the weekend and frost and a few light freezes occurred from the eastern Dakotas to northern Iowa and western Wisconsin, with frost in some areas from Michigan to northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio. “Some corn and soybeans were likely harmed by the cold with temperatures not likely cold enough in a large enough area to cause significant cuts to total U.S. production,” said the forecaster.
This afternoon’s USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 64% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 65% last week and 65% last year at the same time.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.62 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at $10.40 and then at $10.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.21 1/2 and then at $10.10.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at $287.00 and then at $290.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $281.40 and then at $280.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 54.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 52.85 cents and then at 53.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 50.98 cents and then at 50.50 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 4 1/2 cents to $5.23 3/4, nearer the daily high. December HRW wheat rose 12 cents to $5.17 1/4, near the daily high. December spring wheat futures rose 10 ¾ cents to $5.76 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering following recent selling pressure, with HRW leading the day. The winter wheat bulls need to show some back-to-back daily price gains to give the bulls some confidence market bottoms might be in place.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 424,993 MT, down 378,767 MT from the previous week, but were still within the pre-report range of 300,000 to 800,000 MT.
APK-Inform has increased its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest and exports amid higher-than-expected production. The consultancy reported Ukraine can harvest 58.8 MMT of grain, up from 53.2 MMT a month earlier. Exports are projected at 41.9 MMT, up from 40 MMT.
World Weather Inc. said frost and light freezes in the northern U.S. and Canada during the weekend may have ended the growing season for some areas. “Some minor damage to immature summer crops may have resulted.” Rain later this week and into the weekend may be greatest in Montana and western through northern North Dakota. The moisture boost will stall field work but improve winter cereal planting potential. Less rain and very warm temperatures farther to the east and south will help support summer crop maturation and the harvest of spring and early summer crops.
USDA this afternoon in its weekly crop progress reports is expected to show U.S. spring wheat harvested at 84% as of Sunday, compared to 72% last week and 85% at the same time last year. Winter wheat plantings are expected at 5%.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.35 1/2. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.14 1/2 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.01 3/4 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 18 points to 66.21 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw some tepid short covering following recent losses. A weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices today were supportive outside-market elements for the cotton futures market.
World Weather Inc. said Texas precipitation will be limited over the next 10 days with a warming trend expected this week and “that should lead to better late-season cotton development in the west and expedite maturation in the Blacklands.” Harvesting in the south will advance around some brief showers and thunderstorms. Northern U.S. Delta crops have dried out, resulting in some crop stress. A few showers are expected in the coming 10 days, although the resulting rain will not be enough to change overall crop conditions.
Cotton traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 68.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 64.24 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 66.86 cents and then at 67.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 65.80 cents and then at 65.50 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.