Advice Alerts: Corn producers: Advance 2025 crop sales... May corn futures surged higher alongside soybeans and wheat amid active fund buying over concerns of the return of inflation. Domestic fundamentals remain a hindrance as stocks are seen as climbing north of 2 billion bushels at the end of the marketing year. We advise corn hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell 20% of 2025-crop production to get to 60% priced.
Soybean producers: Advance 2025-crop sales... Soybean prices poked above the psychological $12.00 mark for the first time in nearly two years. We advise soybean hedgers and cash-only marketers to take advantage of the rally, selling another 20% of 2025 production to get to 70% sold.
Corn
Price action: May corn rose 7 cents to $4.60 1/2, nearer the daily high, hit a nearly four-month high and for the week were up 12 cents.
5-day outlook: May corn futures today saw another technically bullish weekly high close, suggesting follow-through price strength early next week from the chart-based speculators. Surging crude oil prices that hit a two-year high today were a bullish outside-market element for the grains today. Surging winter wheat futures prices are also bullish for corn. Corn traders will get the monthly USDA supply and demand report next Tuesday, although no major changes from the agency are expected.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. World Weather Inc. today said today’s forecast is wetter overall for southern Brazil and Paraguay than what was advertised earlier this week and the region will benefit from regular rounds of rain through the next ten days, and if the forecast verifies notable improvements in crop and soil conditions will result while fieldwork is slowed. Most of the rain will not be heavy enough to fully restore the soil moisture and follow-up rain will be needed to ensure Safrinha corn has adequate soil moisture to develop during the coming dry season. The drier areas in central Brazil will also benefit from rain during the next ten days and with moderate to heavy rain likely next week significant increases in soil moisture are expected while fieldwork is slowed. Northern Brazil will see regular rain during the next two weeks and fieldwork will be slow to advance while crop development will occur favorably. In Argentina, regular rounds of rain will occur during the next 10 days in western and northern Argentina, where the drier areas will see notable improvements in crop and soil conditions while east-central and southeastern Argentina misses much of the rain through Thursday where increasing crop stress possibly causes some production cuts in the drier areas. Soil moisture is short in a large part of Buenos Aires and southern Entre Rios and this region will see the greatest crop stress. USDA’s late-March Prospective Plantings Report and its results will be a major market driver.
90-day outlook: U.S. corn export sales and shipments continue to be strong. Ambiguity around 2026 plantings has been elevated as geopolitical tensions have amplified global trade unknowns. Fertilizer prices have spiked as the conflict in the Middle East lingers, As springtime nears, fertilizer availability and fertilizer prices could modestly impact crop-planting decisions.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 21 1/2 cents to $12.00 3/4, nearer the session high and hit a two-year high. For the week, May beans rose 30 cents. May soybean meal rose $7.90 to $317.20, near the session high and for the week down $3.30. May bean oil rose 88 points to 66.58 cents, nearer the session high and hit yet another contract high. For the week May bean oil was up 473 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean complex today saw technical buying and was also supported by surging crude oil prices that today hit a two-year high above $90 a barrel. Today’s technically bullish weekly high closes in all three markets point to follow-through buying interest from the chart-based speculators early next week.
Brazilian farmers are expected to reap 183.1 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult said on Thursday, raising its January estimate by 850,000 tons as it runs a nationwide crop tour, according to Reuters.
Tuesday comes the monthly USDA supply and demand report, with traders expecting no big changes in the data.
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are still closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said good field and weather conditions are expected for soybean maturation over the next week in Brazil. Recent drying has been perfect for promoting soybean maturation and harvesting. Increasing rainfall over the next 10 days should replenish soil moisture for better late season crop development potential. Southern Brazil will be driest. Southeastern Argentina rain potentials are not very good over the next 10 days, which may threaten late season summer crop production in portions of Buenos Aires and Uruguay. The late-March USDA planting intentions report will be one of the most important USDA data points of the year.
90-day outlook: Soyoil’s surge is helping lead soybeans higher as refiners look to lock in supplies following the EPA’s 2026 biomass-biodiesel mandate and amid surging crude oil. Soybean oil’s bull run could come to an abrupt end if crude oil prices start to back off on notions oil flows out of the Middle East will return to close to normal. The planned summit between President’s Trump and Xi in April will be very closely watched by the grain markets. If the effects of a nitrogen shortage come to fruition, soybean plantings could dramatically increase, ultimately stirring negative consequences for the long-term price outlook for soybeans.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat rose 33 cents to $6.16 3/4, nearer the daily high, hit an eight-month high and for the week were up 25 1/4 cents. May HRW wheat rose 31 cents to $6.23 1/2, near the daily high, hit a nine-month high and on the week up 43 cents. May spring wheat futures rose 23 1/2 cents to $6.43, nearer the daily high and for the week were up 30 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets soared today amid surging crude oil prices that hit a two-year high, a lower U.S. dollar index and on technical buying amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. Today’s technically bullish weekly high closes suggest follow-through buying interest from the speculators early next week. However, the winter wheat markets are now short-term overbought and due for corrective price pullbacks very soon. Next Tuesday comes USDA’s monthly supply and demand report but no big changes in numbers are expected.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, any meaningful rainfall in the next seven days is most likely to be limited to southeastern production areas. The western half of the region is expected to be left mostly dry. This is a concern because not much precipitation is likely to occur in the western part of the region in the second week of the outlook too. The need for greater rain will increase. However, central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas could receive enough rain by Thursday to be good on moisture for a while. A period of unusually cold air is expected in the second week. In the Northern Plains, conditions in the next seven days will involve near normal precipitation with unusual warmth. A colder-biased weather pattern is still expected to move into the region later next week, though.
90-day outlook: The push in wheat futures to multi-month highs sees fund managers continuing to pile into longs. Heightened tensions across the globe combined with questionable growing conditions, logistics and lower U.S. planted acreage should continue to prove supportive for prices. For hard red spring wheat, fresh for-the-move highs were forged this week, with bulls notching a close above the fortress, commonly known as the 200-day moving average, for the first time since August. The push above $6.00 may give credence to acreage buying as producers contemplate 2026 plantings. Highs last year were carved in mid-June.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 16 points to 64.20 cents, near mid-range and for the week down 141 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market saw tepid short covering today, with bulls disappointed cotton could not get any more support from surging grain futures prices and spiking crude oil prices. The U.S. dollar index was even weaker today.
The U.S. economy lost 92,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February, marking a sharp slowdown from the strong downwardly revised 126,000 increase recorded in January. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% versus expectations for a rate of 4.3%. This report falls squarely into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see U.S. interest rate cuts coming sooner. However, the data also helped to sink the U.S. stock indexes today, which also kept the cotton market bulls timid. Cotton traders on Tuesday will get the monthly USDA supply and demand report, though no major changes are expected.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting this month and in April. Some showers will come soon, but a general soaking seems a little unlikely. West Texas also needs rain and only light amounts are expected for a while. California has fallen back to a drier bias after some rain fell recently. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical. This region will get some timely rain in the next couple of weeks, although drought status will remain. Meantime, eastern Queensland, Australia may get some rain late this week into early next week. The moisture may come too late in the growing season to be of much help for production. Some early season crops are already in the open boll stage of development and could be impacted by too much rain. Western cotton areas in the state and most of those in New South Wales are unlikely to be impacted by much rain. This summer’s heat and dryness at times may have unirrigated boll counts and sizes down relative to normal. Argentina crop conditions are rated favorably. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures should dominate the next ten days. Cotton planting in Brazil is complete and the crop should benefit from a pattern of periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next 10 days.
90-day outlook: Cotton traders will be keeping a close eye on the Buying American Cotton Act (BACA), which was introduced in Congress earlier this year with bipartisan support. This legislation creates forward-facing structural demand for U.S. farmers rather than addressing economic catastrophes after they occur. BACA would establish tax credits to incentivize the use of U.S.-grown cotton and U.S. cotton-manufactured products like yarns and fabric in cotton-based products sold in the United States. This legislation supports farm families and encourages investment in domestic textile mills. Lawmakers, producers, and industry leaders have been asking for more market-based solutions to confront the issues facing American agriculture, and BACA is a long-term solution.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
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