Corn
Price action: December corn fell 7 cents to $4.65 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw most of Monday’s gains taken right back by the bears today. Weather in the Corn Belt is leaning more price-bearish. It will be very important, technically, for the bulls to defend this week’s low of $4.58 1/4 in December futures, as a breach of that level would likely trigger pre-placed sell stop orders.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 61% good to excellent, down two percentage points from the previous week. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect) the crop declined 3.72 points on the week and is 24.18 points below the same time a year-ago.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier, in this week’s report, left his U.S. corn yield unchanged at 181.0 bu/ac with a neutral-to-lower bias.
World Weather Inc. today said daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next week may not bring enough rain to prevent many areas of the Midwest from drying down overall, but a lack of significant heat through at least the next week and moist soils will ensure crop development occurs favorably beyond the middle of the month in much in the region, with a few exceptions.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $4.92. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at this week’s low of $4.58 1/4. First resistance is seen at $4.70 and then at today’s high of $4.75 1/4. First support is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.58 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 40% forward sold and 20% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 50% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 14 1/2 cents to $11.77 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a four-week low. September soybean meal lost $2.70 to $312.70, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low. September soybean oil lost 59 points to 68.20 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures markets today saw a “Turnaround Tuesday” as Monday’s gains were lost and then some for beans and meal. Weather in the U.S. is leaning more price-bearish for soybeans. Bulls got no traction today from USDA reporting daily sales of 132,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2026-27.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 63% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week. However, on our CCI, the crop declined 0.77 points to 364.32 and sits 11.86 points behind year-ago at this time.
Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier maintained his U.S. soybean yield estimate this week at 52.0 bu/ac, with a neutral-to-lower bias. “The forecast for this week looks favorable for crop development, with increased soil moisture and cooler temperatures. These conditions should favor soybean flowering, pod set, and early pod filling,” said Cordonnier.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next week may not bring enough rain to prevent many areas from drying down overall, but a lack of significant heat through at least the next week and moist soils will ensure crop development occurs favorably beyond the middle of the month in much of the region, with a few exceptions. A close watch will continue on east-central and southeastern South Dakota and nearby Nebraska into northwestern Iowa as well as eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where soil moisture is short and stress to crops will increase until significant rain falls. Strong showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday will likely bring additional relief from dryness to parts of the region and with another round of showers likely Aug. 14-18 yield potentials should stabilize or possibly increase during the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: A fledgling price downtrend is in place on the daily chart for November beans. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the July high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at $11.90 and then at $12.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.70 and then at $11.60.
Soybean meal sees a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $334.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at $315.00 and then at $320.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $311.40 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil sees a fledgling price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 69.48 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 66.51 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 35% forward sold on 2026 crop, with another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 55% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW fell 12 1/2 cents to $6.38 1/2, nearer the daily low. September HRW lost 10 1/4 cents to $7.07, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat futures fell 10 1/2 cents to $6.84 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling today as fledgling price downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts. Losses in corn and soybean futures also spilled over into selling pressure in the wheat markets.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 55% good to excellent, up two percentage points from the previous week. The CCI rose just 0.22 points, as declines in North Dakota negated nearly all of the increases in Montana and South Dakota.
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World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, hot temperatures will occur today followed by mid-week cooling in northern parts of the region. The cool off will be welcome for crops and livestock, but it will only last a couple of days and the heat will return. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are most likely during the middle part of this week with drier weather during the weekend and next week. The moisture will be good for all crops, although a greater volume of rain might be needed for some summer crops. In the Northern Plains, more comfortable temperatures in the upper 60s to mid-80s and some isolated showers will bring some relief from recent stressful conditions in the crop region. Heat will rebuild in the west in the coming days, with dry conditions persisting in the same area, which may reamplify crop and livestock stress.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market still bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. Fledgling price downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.59 1/2 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.32 and then at $6.20.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $7.77 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.26 1/4 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.98 3/4 and then at $6.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures lost 11 points to 82.46 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a slight corrective pullback today, after prices Monday closed at a nine-week high close. Losses in the grain futures markets today also limited buying interest in cotton futures.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop in 20% poor to very poor condition, 38% fair and 42% in good to excellent condition as of Sunday. The crop was 88% squaring and 55% setting bolls.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas and the Texas Blacklands need rain to support the best production potential. Some rain fell in a part of west Texas recently, but its coverage was poor and many dryland areas still have a big need for moisture. Cotton in most other U.S. production areas are in varying condition, with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. Rain has fallen recently in the Carolinas, easing long term dryness. The middle and lower Delta will experience net drying for at least the next week and possibly ten days.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the July high of 82.96 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 77.73 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 82.63 cents and then at 82.96 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 80.39 cents and then at 80.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.