Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.09 3/4, near mid-range and closed at a contract low close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw more price pressure from very good overall growing weather in the U.S. at present, as well as fresh technical selling amid the price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Extended weather forecasts into early July show no threatening dry or hot, windy weather. A stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a 13-month high overnight and weaker crude oil prices were bearish outside-market elements for the corn market today.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 100,000 MT to Mexico. Of the total, 30,000 MT is for 2026-27 and 70,000 MT is for 2026-27.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 68% good to excellent as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week. Emergence was estimated at 97%, while 5% of the crop was silking.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his 2025-26 Brazilian and Argentine corn production estimates 139 MMT and 63 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral bias for both crops going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states are going to get enough showers and thunderstorms over the next two weeks to maintain good crop development conditions. Some partial relief to dryness will occur over time in South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, although more rain will be needed. Meantime, southern Safrinha corn areas of Brazil will receive additional waves of rain slowing crop maturation and harvest progress. Cooler weather is also expected with some patches of frost possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.25 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.14 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $4.22. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.06 1/4 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 1 1/4 cents to $11.17, nearer the daily low.July soybean meal rose $3.10 to $302.90, nearer the daily high. July soybean oil lost 56 points to 70.59 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market paused today, while meal saw some short covering and bean oil was pressured by the slumping crude oil market. The soy complex bulls are still constrained by very good growing weather in most of the Midwest, with no threatening weather conditions in the extended forecasts out into early July. A stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a 13-month high today and lower crude oil prices that hit a three-month low overnight were also bearish outside-market forces for the soybean complex.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 66% good to excellent as of Sunday, unchanged from last week. Emergence was estimated at 93% while 9% of the crop was blooming.
Pro Farmer’s crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, increased his 2025-26 Argentine soybean production estimate 1.0 MMT to 50 MMT amid recent rains. He holds a neutral bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest a transition of regular rain and mild temperatures to a warmer and drier weather pattern will occur this weekend into next week, with soil moisture in place and expected rain adequate in favorably supporting crop development through the first week of July and likely longer, while production potentials will remain very high. A ridge of high pressure will impact the Midwest this weekend into the first week of July, but there will be showers most days that will slow drying rates and will help to keep humidity high enough that excessive heat does not evolve right away. A close watch will continue on the rainfall distribution in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt, where many areas are still in need of rain to ensure crops have adequate soil moisture when drier weather occurs in the first week of July. Much of the Midwest will dry down overall during the first week of July and will need timely rain soon to ensure production potentials do not decline.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily chart has at least stalled out. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is to close July prices above solid resistance at $11.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.30 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $11.40 1/2. First support is seen at $11.10 and then at the June low of $11.02 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $305.00 and then at $307.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $299.20 and then at the February low of $297.80.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 79.69 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 72.00 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at the June low of 68.00 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 10 3/4 cents to $5.86 3/4, near the daily low. July HRW lost 15 1/4 cents to $6.18 1/4, near the daily low. September HRS fell 24 3/4 cents to $5.88.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw renewed technical selling pressure today as price uptrends on the daily bar charts have stalled out or have been negated. A stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a 13-month high today and lower crude oil prices that hit a three-month low overnight were also bearish outside-market elements for the winter wheat futures.
World weather today said U.S. wheat areas in the Plains and Midwest will slowly trend warmer after recent cool conditions and precipitation is expected to continue frequently enough to maintain some concern over grain quality. Rain is needed in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and portions of the interior northern Plains. Portions of eastern and western Canada’s Prairies are too wet, while central areas might benefit from a rainfall boost. Drying may also be needed soon in Ontario and Quebec.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.71. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.18 1/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at $5.80 and then at $5.71.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $6.14. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.37 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $6.48 1/4. First support is seen at $6.14 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 84 points to 75.21 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw technical selling reappear today. A big sell off in the U.S. stock market, a stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a 13-month high today and lower crude oil prices that hit a three-month low overnight were also bearish outside-market forces for the cotton market.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas still needs significant moisture, especially in the dryland areas of the southwest, but only a limited amount of rain is expected for a while. Cotton conditions in most other production areas are rated fair to very good and recent rain should have improved crops considerably in the drier areas of the southeastern states. No crop damaging conditions occurred in the Delta, despite some fears of such last week because of a tropical storm.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress data showed the U.S. cotton crop in 13% poor to very poor condition, 34% fair and 53% in good to excellent condition. U.S. cotton was 92% planted, 27% squaring and 5% setting bolls as of Sunday.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures bulls faded today. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 77.96 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 70.92 cents. First resistance is seen at 75.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at 73.00 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.