Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 6 1/4 cents to $4.29 1/2, nearer the daily high and hit a 10-week high.
Fundamental analysis: After Monday’s price pressure in corn, the bulls needed a “Turnaround Tuesday” to revive their momentum—and they got just that. The corn market was lifted on fresh technical buying and amid a drop in the U.S. dollar index to a seven-week low today, as well as higher crude oil prices today.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. crop as 67% “good” to “excellent” as of Sept. 14, down one percentage point from last week and 9% was rated “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index, (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop declined 1.8 points to 371.9. Harvest was estimated to be 7% complete, in line with the five-year average. Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn yield estimate unchanged at 184 bu. per acre but noted a neutral to lower bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest rains will occur today into Thursday and much of the Midwest will see multiple rounds of rain with the western Corn Belt the wettest. Early corn harvesting should advance well in the eastern Corn Belt through Saturday, while many areas in the western Corn Belt see fieldwork advance well today, before the rain occurs.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the near-term technical advantage. December corn futures prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.45. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.14. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.31 1/4 and then at $4.35. First support is seen at $4.25 and then at this week’s low of $4.22.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 7 cents to $10.49 3/4, nearer the session high and hit a three-week high. December soybean meal rose 40 cents to $286.10, nearer the daily high. December soybean oil rose 94 points to 53.20 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market today rebounded from Monday’s price pressure on news the U.S. and China made good progress on high-level trade talks in Madrid, Spain. President Trump said on social media that the talks are going very well and that he will talk with Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this week. Bean bulls are hoping a new trade deal would mean more U.S. soybean sales to China. A drop in the U.S. dollar index to a seven-week low today, along with a rally in crude oil prices, were bullish outside markets for the soy complex futures today.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 63% “good” to “excellent,” down one percentage point from last week, while 11% was rated “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop declined 4.8 points to 359.1. Harvest was estimated to be 5% complete, two points ahead of the five-year average. Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his soybean yield estimate by 0.5 bushels to 52.5 bu. per acre and indicated a neutral to lower bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest rains will occur today into Thursday and much of the Midwest will see multiple rounds of rain with the western Corn Belt the wettest. The rain will come too late to significantly increase summer crop yields. Early harvesting should advance well in the eastern Corn Belt through Saturday, while many areas in the western Corn Belt see fieldwork advance well today, before the rain occurs.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.62 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.21 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.52 1/2 and then at $10.62 3/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.39 3/4 and then at $10.30.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on neutral ground. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $289.80 and then at $295.00. First support is seen at $284.30 and then at $281.40.
Bean oil bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 55.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 51.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 53.53 cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at 52.50 cents and then at this week’s low of 51.87 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 9 cents to $5.34, near the session high and hit a two-week high. December HRW gained 9 1/2 cents to $5.23 1/2, near the session high and hit a three-week high. December spring wheat futures rose 4 3/4 cents to $5.76 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets rallied today on short covering and perceived bargain hunting, as well as being supported by good gains in corn and soybean futures. A drop in the U.S. dollar index to a seven-week low today, as well as gains in crude oil futures today, were bullish outside-market elements for the wheat markets. Follow-through buying on Wednesday or Thursday would be an early clue that price bottoms are finally in place for the winter wheat markets.
USDA Monday afternoon reported 11% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was planted as of Sept. 14, two percentage points behind last year and the five-year average.
Flour millers in Asia have ramped up imports of U.S. wheat in recent weeks amid competitive prices from American suppliers and shipment delays from the Black Sea, according to grain traders at an international conference.
World Weather Inc. said additional rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and that which has recently fallen will bode well for early season planting and emergence. Warmer temperatures will also stimulate quick germination. Rain in Canada’s eastern Prairies last weekend stalled harvest progress and additional rain over the next day or two may induce some additional delay. Some unharvested grain may have suffered a quality decline in southeastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba, where it has been wettest recently and where additional showers are expected, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls now have some momentum to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.12. First resistance is seen at $5.42 3/4 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.20 1/2 and then $5.12.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.11 and then at the contract low of $5.01 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 84 points to 67.68 cents, near the daily high and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: More short covering and perceived bargain buying were featured in the cotton futures market today. A drop in the U.S. dollar index to a seven-week low today, as well as gains in crude oil futures today, were bullish outside-market elements for the cotton market. Rallies in the grain futures markets today also helped to lift cotton futures.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop was in 52% good to excellent condition, 34% fair and 14% poor to very poor condition. Nine percent of the cotton crop was harvested as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see isolated to scattered showers most days through this weekend with greater rain Wednesday into Thursday causing some cotton discoloration before Monday through Sep. 30 is dry most often, allowing some discolored cotton fibers to be bleached white. Rain Wednesday into Thursday will be greatest in the Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma where totals will be 0.30-1.30” and locally more while much of West Texas receives up to 0.75” and locally more with some central and eastern areas dry. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas will also be dry through most of the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting should occur in a mostly favorable environment around some infrequent showers, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 68.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the September low of 65.80 cents. First resistance is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 68.30 cents. First support is seen at 67.00 cents and then at today’s low of 66.68 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.