Pro Farmer wishes you a Merry Christmas! Please be advised of the following holiday schedule:
Markets: Early close Wednesday; closed Thursday.
Reports: On Wednesday and Friday, we will observe an abbreviated schedule, publishing First Thing Today (8:00 a.m. CT) and After the Bell (Post-close). We will resume our regular publishing schedule on Monday, Dec. 29.
Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 1/2 of a cent to $4.47 1/2, near mid-range and hit a two-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market paused today after recent gains and ahead of the Christmas holiday.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 1.744 MMT for delivery in the current marketing year the week ending December 11th, up from 1.478 MMT the prior week and at the higher end of analyst expectations that ranged from 900,000 MT to 1.8 MMT.
Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop estimate unchanged at 137 million tons with a neutral to lower bias. While Rio Grande do Sul received recent rains that will help production, issues remain with crops that did not receive adequate rainfall in November to have successful pollination.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable weather will continue in most of Argentina and Brazil during the next 10 days. Drying in east-central and northeastern Brazil in this coming week should not present a problem as long as timely rain occurs as advertised next week. Southern Argentina and far northeastern Brazil will stay drier than usual for a while.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.49 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.43 and then at $4.40.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 1 3/4 cents to $10.51 1/2, nearer the daily low. January soybean meal rose $2.50 to $301.10, near mid-range. January soybean oil fell 25 points to 48.30 cents, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil futures today saw some mild technical selling, while meal posted decent gains on short covering. It’s likely the meal market holds the key for what soybeans can do in the near term, and today’s gains gave the bean bulls some encouragement.
USDA reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 2.396 MMT for delivery in the current marketing year for the week ending December 11th, up from 1.552 MMT the prior week and about mid-range of analyst expectations that varied from 1.8 MMT to 2.9 MMT.
Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier increased his Brazilian soybean production estimate 1 million tons to 177 million tons with a neutral to higher bias. Cordonnier cites positive weather conditions and higher than expected rainfall in the Rio Grande do Sul region as the main driver for the increase.
World Weather Inc. today said despite restricted rain in a large part of Brazil into Friday, much of Brazil and Paraguay will see adequate rain during next two weeks to favorably support crop development while slowing fieldwork with exceptions in parts of northeastern Brazil. In Argentina, regular rounds of rain will fall from Santiago del Estero to Chaco and Corrientes during the next two weeks, inducing further increases in soil moisture and allowing crops to develop favorably while conditions for fieldwork are often poor. Much of Santiago del Estero still has marginal to short soil moisture and the coming rain will be beneficial to crops. Central and northern Cordoba to Entre Rios will not be as wet as areas to the north, but enough rain will fall on the region to allow crops to develop favorably through the next two weeks while breaks between rounds of rain should allow fieldwork to advance. Rain will be infrequent and light during the next two weeks from San Luis and southern Cordoba through La Pampa and Buenos Aires where most areas will dry down significantly and stress to crops should increase in the drier areas while fieldwork will advance well once fields dry down after rain during the past weekend.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.12 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.67 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $10.80. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.47 and then at $10.40.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at the December high of $319.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $303.60 and then at last week’s high of $306.90. First support is seen at this week’s low of $297.00 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at 51.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.75 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 48.75 cents and then at 49.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 47.79 cents and then at 47.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 1 1/2 cents to $5.17, nearer the daily high. March HRW rose 6 3/4 cents to $5.28, near the daily high. March spring wheat futures rose 1/4 of a cent to $5.80 1/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures bulls are starting to show some signs of life. More short covering and perceived bargain hunting were featured today, amid news this week that weekend Russian attacks have damaged Ukrainian grain infrastructure in Black Sea ports, which has in turn decreased grain coming out of the Black Sea region.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 432,600 MT for the week ending December 11, up from 381,532 MT the prior week and in the middle of analysts’ expectations ranging from 300,000 to 600,000 MT. Meantime, wheat exports from the EU are at 10.8 MMT for the marketing year, down 2% compared to the same time last year.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, dry weather and unusual warmth will dominate the weather pattern through the first week of the outlook. There is some potential for some rain and snow in southwestern production areas Sunday into Monday; however, the weather disturbance associated with this could be too far to the west. Temperatures will be quite warm relative to normal this week, likely record-breaking in some areas. An extreme or two near 90 Fahrenheit is a possibility Thursday in the southeastern Texas Panhandle and far southwestern Oklahoma. Some loss of winter hardiness is expected. There is a greater potential for some rain and snow in the second week of the outlook when the weather disturbance out in the western U.S. eventually moves east. In the Northern Plains, the region’s snowpack will get a little more-trimmed away from southwest to northeast later this week due to unusual warmth. Any precipitation will occur mainly in northern Minnesota. The warmer weather this week will help reduce livestock stress; though, temperatures Sunday will be briefly below average again.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at last week’s high of $5.29 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.10 and then at the contract low of $5.04.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.36 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.30 and then at $5.36 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.15 1/4 and then at last week’s low of $5.03.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 40 points to 64.01 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw short covering and perceived bargain buying.
Price-friendly for cotton futures, USDA today reported better weekly export sales for the week of Dec. 11, with U.S. cotton export sales of 309,300 running bales, which compares to 153,600 running bales in the week prior.
World Weather Inc. today said recent dry conditions in California, the southwestern desert region and southwestern Plains are good for late season harvesting and routine field operations. U.S. harvesting should be virtually complete and the focus of weather needs during the winter should be on soil moisture replenishment from California to Texas and in parts of the southeastern states. Rain coming to central and southern California over the next week should be welcome and good for soil moisture replenishment. Texas will remain quite dry for at least another week with unseasonably warm to hot conditions further depleting soil moisture.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 65.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 64.30 cents and then at last week’s high of 64.53 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 63.48 cents and then at the contract low of 62.97 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.