Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.26 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw some profit-taking pressure after prices hit a 2.5-month high on Tuesday. Some trepidation ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting conclusion also kept the corn bulls timid today.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see regular rounds of rain occur through late next week, with the western Corn Belt into Illinois wettest. The eastern Corn Belt will see little rain through Saturday. Early harvesting should advance well in the eastern Corn Belt through Saturday, while some fieldwork advances in the western Corn Belt around the showers and thunderstorms is expected.
Corn traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. U.S. corn sales abroad have been solid recently.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the near-term technical advantage. December corn futures prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.45. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.14. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.31 1/4 and then at $4.35. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.22 and then at $4.18.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 6 cents to $10.43 3/4, near the session low after hitting a three-week high early on. December soybean meal fell 40 cents to $285.70, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil fell 142 points to 51.78 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw some profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures traders today, following recent gains. Bulls were also apprehensive today, ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting and the press conference from Fed Chair Powell. On the positive side today, soybean meal was the least week market in the soy complex.
A headline from the South China Morning Post that stated, “Trump-Xi progress bodes well for Boeing, U.S. farmers.” The story notes President Trump “will only agree to a China visit if he can announce multibillion-dollar orders, probably for Boeing aircraft and U.S. soybeans.” This situation could help change the psychology of the soy complex and even the grains complex to a more bullish tone.
World Weather Inc. today said its latest forecast is wetter for the middle to late part of next week for the Midwest and regular rounds of rain will occur through late next week and much of the Midwest will see multiple rounds of rain, with the western Corn Belt into Illinois wettest. The eastern Corn Belt will see little rain through Saturday. Early harvesting should advance well in the eastern Corn Belt through Saturday, while some fieldwork advances in the western Corn Belt around the showers and thunderstorms is expected. “Although some areas from the western Corn Belt into Illinois will see moderate to locally heavy rain by late next week, the soil is dry enough to absorb much of the moisture without becoming excessively muddy and causing prolonged delays to fieldwork, said the forecaster.
Soybean traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, especially to see if China was a significant buyer of U.S. beans.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.62 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.21 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.52 3/4 and then at $10.62 3/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.39 3/4 and then at $10.30.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on neutral ground. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $289.80 and then at $295.00. First support is seen at $284.30 and then at $281.40.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 55.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 51.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 53.00 cents and then at today’s high of 53.39 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 51.73 cents and then at 51.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.28 1/4, near the session low and hit a five-week high early on. December HRW lost 7 1/4 cents to $5.16 1/4, near the session low and hit a three-week high early on. December spring wheat futures fell 2 1/2 cents to $5.74.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets hit multi-week highs early on today but then backed off on some profit-taking by the shorter-term futures traders amid lower corn and soybean futures prices today. Still, the wheat market bulls are showing some strength recently to begin to suggest market bottoms are in place. Buyers in the wheat futures markets were timid today due to the FOMC meeting’s conclusion this afternoon.
World Weather Inc. said additional rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas through the weekend and into early next week and that which has recently fallen “will bode well for early season planting and emergence. Warm temperatures will also stimulate quick germination.” Drier weather returning to eastern Canada’s Prairies over the coming week will help get fieldwork back under way after recent rain delays. Meantime, drying in Russia’s spring wheat areas through the weekend will expedite crop maturation and harvesting. Some rain in western Russia should maintain a favorable autumn planting environment for areas north of Ukraine and north of Russia’s southern region.
Wheat traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sale report.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have shown some strength recently to suggest market bottoms are in place. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.12. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.35 3/4 and then at $5.42 3/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.20 1/2 and then $5.12.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.24 and then at $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.11 and then at the contract low of $5.01 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 43 points to 67.25 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week high early on today.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today lost some ground amid a sell off in the grain futures markets and some trader trepidation ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting conclusion and press conference from Fed Chair Powell.
World Weather Inc. said warm temperatures and limited rainfall in west Texas will help to expedite the development of cotton. Some growth retardant has been applied to a part of the crop to limit new development, while supporting the ongoing development of established bolls. “Some yields outside of the southwestern dryland fields should be good.” Cotton in the Blacklands will be dry into the weekend and that will favor crop maturation and some harvesting. Harvesting in other areas of Texas to the south will advance well around any spotty showers that evolve. The Blacklands will get rain next week to slow or stall fieldwork for a little while. U.S. Delta crops have dried out greatly resulting in some crop stress. Late-season boll sizes may be smaller than usual, but the fiber quality is likely above average this year, said the forecaster.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report will be closely examined by cotton traders, especially to see if there is better demand from China.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 69.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the September low of 65.80 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.84 cents and then at 68.30 cents. First support is seen at 67.00 cents and then at Tuesday’s low of 66.68 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.