Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.17, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market saw more profit-taking pressure today. Now the bulls need to step up and show price strength yet this week in order to keep alive the price uptrend on the daily bar chart for December futures.
World Weather Inc. today said Brazil’s Safrinha corn harvesting is virtually complete and the environment has been quite good for late-season fieldwork. Pre-monsoonal showers will begin next week and that could lead to a quick start to early soybean planting later this month and in early October. Corn plantings in Argentina have been slowed by recent heavy rains and localized flooding, most notably in the province of Buenos Aires. Meanwhile, wet conditions continue to hinder the completion of the 2024-25 corn harvest.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. corn export sales of 900,000 MT to 2.4 MMT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report is in focus for grain traders. According to a Reuters survey of analysts, the agency will estimate U.S. corn production at 16.516 billion bushels and an average yield of 186.2 bushels per acre. That compares to USDA’s August production estimate of 16.472 billion bushels and an average yield of 188.8 bushels an acre.
Technical analysis: December corn futures prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart but now just barely. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.03 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.20 and then at last week’s high of $4.24 1/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.14 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 6 cents to $10.25 1/4, near the daily low and closed at a four-week low close. December soybean meal lost $3.20 to $285.80, near the daily low. December soybean oil rose 53 points to 51.01 cents, near the daily high and hit a nearly three-month low early on today.
Fundamental analysis: November soybeans are trending lower on the daily bar chart amid still-weak soybean meal futures prices that today gave back most of Tuesday’s decent gains. Soybean oil saw some short covering today but gains were limited as Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rose for the sixth straight month in August to the highest level in 20 months.
Soybean bulls continue to worry about slack demand coming from major soybean importer China. Bunge is expected to finish loading 30,000 MT of Argentine soybean meal destined for China today, according to maritime agency NABSA, marking the first soymeal cargo. Bunge had previously dispatched a shipment of meal to China in July but ended up diverting the sale to Vietnam for “commercial reasons,” according to Reuters.
World Weather Inc. said rain in the Midwest will be infrequent and light in most areas during the next two weeks and crop maturation and harvesting should advance well while minor declines in crop yields occur in some southern areas. Some showers will occur on occasion, however, and a few crops should benefit from the moisture with coverage of significant rain in the drier areas before crops reach maturity not likely great enough to induce widespread increases in yields. Much of the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt would benefit from greater rain to improve winter crop prospects. Temperatures will warm further today and much warmer than normal temperatures will be common into at least late next week, while temperatures stay above the frost threshold through the same period.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean export sales of 400,000 MT to 1.6 MMT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Friday comes USDA’s supply and demand report, out at 11:00 a.m. CDT. The average of analysts surveyed by Reuters shows a U.S. soybean production estimate of 4.271 billion bushels and an average yield of 53.3 bushels an acre in the September report, compared to the August USDA production estimate of 4.292 billion bushels and an average yield of 53.6 bushels an acre.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.62 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at $10.40 and then at $10.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.21 1/2 and then at $10.10.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls now have some momentum on their side. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $289.80 and then at $295.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $284.90 and then at last week’s low of $281.40.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 53.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 51.98 cents and then at
last week’s high of 52.85 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 50.02 cents and then at 49.50 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 5 1/4 cents to $5.15, nearer the daily low and closed at a contract low close. December HRW wheat fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.07, near the daily low. December spring wheat futures fell 4 1/2 cents to $5.69 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more selling pressure today on spillover pressure from losses in corn and soybean futures markets. Firmly bearish near-term technicals are also keeping the bearish wheat speculators betting on the short side.
Russia’s IKAR consultancy raised its 2025 wheat crop forecast to 87 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 86 MMT. Its total 2025 grain crop forecast was increased to 135 MMT, up from 132.8 MMT. Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat crop to 87.2 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 86.1 MMT. The upward revision was due to stronger-than-expected yields in Siberia and Urals, where crops are approaching record levels, according to the consultancy.
World Weather Inc. said that in the northern U.S. Plains, “enough rain is expected in Montana and North Dakota in the first week of the outlook to improve winter crop planting but also cause some fieldwork delays.” Less rain is possible in areas farther to the southeast and this, in combination with unusual warmth, will help support summer crop maturation and harvest progress, said the forecaster.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat export sales of 300,000 to 650,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.25 and then at $5.35 1/2. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.14 1/2 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.19 and then at $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.01 3/4 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 21 points to 66.67 cents, near mid-range after hitting a nearly two-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market continues to see tepid short covering and was also mildly supported today by higher crude oil prices at mid-week. Lower grain futures prices today limited the upside in cotton prices.
World Weather Inc. said Texas precipitation will be limited over the next 10 days, with a warming trend expected this week and “that should lead to better late season cotton development in the west and expedite maturation in the Blacklands.” Harvesting in the south will advance favorably with very little rain expected.
U.S. Delta crops have dried out, resulting in some crop stress. A few showers are expected in the coming ten days, although the resulting rain will not be enough to change overall crop conditions. The southeastern states and Arizona will see a mix of rain and sunshine.
Cotton traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. A Bloomberg survey showed analysts on average expect U.S. cotton production this year at 13.54 million bales, which is slightly up from USDA’s August estimate.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 68.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 64.24 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.10 cents and then at 67.50 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 66.15 cents and then at last week’s low of 65.80 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.