Corn
Price action: December corn rose 2 1/2 cents to $5.35 3/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: For most of the session the corn futures market saw a pause and some chart consolidation. However, buyers stepped in late to push prices to session highs. Selling interest was limited by relentless rains and some flooding in central Iowa, with more rain in the forecast from Nebraska to Wisconsin.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 57% good to excellent as of Sunday, up one percentage point. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the crop rose 0.5 point on the week to 350.43. Corn harvest was estimated to be 8% complete, up two percentage points from the five-year average.
Conab has increased Brazil’s 2025-26 corn production to 144.01 MMT, up 2.15 MMT, but also cut exports by 2.58 MMT, due to stronger ethanol demand.
World Weather Inc. today said wetter weather in the northern Corn Belt and additional moisture in the west-central production areas will help fix long-term moisture deficits, but delaying harvest progress. Meantime, this year’s dryness in France, the U.K. and southeastern Europe has cut into summer crop production. Some of that dryness has extended into Russia’s Southern region, as well.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out and bulls appear tired. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.45. First support is seen at $5.30 and then at last week’s low of $5.23 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 14 1/2 cents to $13.18 3/4, near the daily high. December soybean meal rose $9.20 to $365.40, near the daily high and hit a 2.5-year high for the contract. December soybean oil rose 16 points to 70.35 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean meal market led soybeans higher today, with spreaders featured buying meal and selling bean oil. Traders were expecting a price-friendly NOPA crush report today. More technical buying was also seen today as both markets remain in price uptrends.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 58% good to excellent, unchanged on the week. On our CCI, the crop faded 0.66 points to 354.69.Soybean harvest was estimated to be 6% complete, three-points ahead of the five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Midwest through the next week and although harvesting will be slowed most crops are not ready to be harvested and where crops are ready to be harvested in the south rain should be infrequent enough to allow harvesting to advance well overall. At least some additional rain in the southwestern and south-central Midwest will induce beneficial increases in soil moisture. Some heavy rain will fall into Wednesday from southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas to Wisconsin and northwestern Ohio and southern Michigan and some local flooding may result. Drier weather will resume Sep. 23-29.
Technical analysis: November soybeans bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at $13.25 and then at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $12.92 and then at $12.75.
Soybean meal sees a solid price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $375.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $347.30. First resistance comes in at $368.00 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at $360.00 and then at today’s low of $353.30.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 72.23 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at 69.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 68.23 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 6 1/2 cents to $7.28 1/2, near the session high. December HRW gained 3 3/4 cents to $7.96 1/4, near the session high. December spring wheat futures rose 12 1/4 cents to $7.48 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some chart consolidation and a pause today, following recent selling pressure. Selling interest in futures was limited as Ukraine overnight said it hit the Syzran refinery in Russia’s Volga region as the two nations continued attacks on each other’s critical infrastructure despite President Trump’s claim of an energy truce.
USDA on Monday afternoon estimated U.S. winter wheat plantings were 8% complete as of Sept. 13, which trailed the five-year average by four percentage points.
World weather today said rain is needed in winter wheat production areas in the U.S. Plains, western and southeastern Europe, Ukraine and Russia’s southern Region, but there is plenty of time for this to evolve. There may eventually be need for greater rain in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin. Australia’s wheat and barley is still rated well in the south while that in Queensland and northern New South Wales will likely underperform this year because of El Nino heat and dryness. Some rain has fallen recently in parts of the central U.S. Plains, Ukraine and northern parts of Russia’s Southern Region, although more is needed. Spring wheat harvesting in China and the northern U.S. Plains is nearly complete while rain and freezes in Canada have delayed harvesting and raised some crop quality concerns in some areas. There is need for drier weather in parts of Russia and some areas in Canada where fieldwork has been disrupted by rain periodically. More rain is likely in southeastern parts of Canada’s Prairies Wednesday into the weekend maintaining wet field conditions, prolonging harvest delays and raising crop quality concerns.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW are in some jeopardy of being negated. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.85. First resistance is seen at $7.35 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $7.10 and then at $7.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at $8.19 and then at last week’s high of $8.31 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.78 1/4 and then at $7.65.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 7 points to 84.48 cents and hit a four-week low again today.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw more technical selling today. A weaker U.S. stock market and stronger U.S. dollar index this week are bearish outside-market elements for the cotton market.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop 8% harvested as of Sunday, with 57% bolls opening. The cotton crop was rated in 34% poor to very poor condition, 30% fair and 36% good to excellent condition.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas and Oklahoma will remain very warm to occasionally hot today and Wednesday. There is some potential for showers and thunderstorms later this week and into next week, although the precipitation will come a little late to be of much use to this year’s crops. The U.S. Delta has been too hot and mostly dry recently and significant change may not occur anytime soon. Cotton in most other U.S. production areas is in varying condition with most crops suspected of doing relatively well.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls are fading fast. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 86.51 cents and then at 87.50 cents. First support is seen at 83.50 cents and then at 83.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.