Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 8 cents to $4.60 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more short covering and perceived bargain buying today. A recently weaker U.S. dollar index and improved risk appetite in the general marketplace are working in favor of the corn market bulls.
World Weather Inc. today said rain and some flooding occurred from east-central Iowa to eastern Wisconsin and Michigan Tuesday, with lighter rain extending to central and northern Indiana and the northern half and parts of southeastern Ohio, while most areas to the south were dry and some planting likely occurred in the drier areas. Wet weather into Saturday from eastern Kansas to northern Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin will keep fieldwork to a minimum and will cause some local flooding, while precipitation is light enough in most other areas that some fieldwork likely occurs with aggressive planting likely near and south of the Ohio River. A drier weather pattern will occur Sunday into April 29 and planting should steadily increase around one round of precipitation advertised for much of the Midwest Apr. 22-25.
Traders on Thursday will get the weekly USDA export sales report. Traders expect U.S. corn sales of 900,000 to 1.7 million bushels in all marketing years.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still trending lower on the daily bar chart. However, decent follow-through buying strength on Thursday would give the bulls confidence that a near-term market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.48 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.65 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at $4.55 and then at today’s low of $4.52 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 10 1/2 cents to $11.83 1/4, near the daily high. July soybean meal rose $3.90 to $331.20, near the daily high and closed at a five-month high close. July soybean oil rose 109 points to 67.31 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures markets today saw short covering and some perceived bargain hunting from the speculators. Some better risk appetite in the general marketplace and a recently weaker U.S. dollar index worked in favor of the soy complex bulls today.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported U.S. soybean crush in March reached the second highest level for any month on record at 226.161 million bushels in March. That was up 8.3% from February and 16.3% from March 2025, though the figure was below analysts’ expectations. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of March 31 declined to 2.039 billion pounds, down 2.0% from February but up 36.1% from year-ago.
Brazil’s soybean exports are seen reaching 16.67 MMT in April, according to Anec.
Traders on Thursday will get the weekly USDA export sales report. Traders expect U.S. soybean sales of 200,000 to 700,000 bushels in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. will be excellent in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states. However, dryness will slow emergence and establishment in many areas. Planting in the Midwest will be slowed due to frequent rain and wet field conditions.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.40. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.99 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.70 1/4 and then at last week’s low of $11.56 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the November 2025 high of $343.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $335.60 and then at $340.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $325.90 and then at this week’s low of $323.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls appear tired. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 70.12 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.32 cents. First resistance is seen at 68.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 68.70 cents. First support is seen at 66.00 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 1/2 cent to $6.01 3/4, nearer the daily high. July HRW rose 2 1/4 cents to $6.38 1/2, nearer the daily high. September spring wheat futures rose 2 cents to $6.69 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some corrective price pullbacks early on, after Tuesday’s good gains. However, bulls stepped up in late trading to produce mild to modest gains by the closing bell. A recently weaker U.S. dollar index and better risk appetite in the general marketplace did support winter wheat futures at mid-week.
World Weather Inc. today said concern about the lack of rain in the U.S. western hard red winter wheat areas combined with a poor precipitation outlook will be a concern for producers and traders. Wheat in the Midwest has been and will continue in better shape than that in some areas in the central and southwestern Plains. Meantime, returning wet biased conditions in parts of the FSU may lead to some field working delays. The moisture will saturate the soil in some areas. Not much fieldwork has begun yet and there should be plenty of moisture for planting this year. Wheat conditions in Europe and North Africa are mostly good and the same is suspected in the Middle East. Recent rain and that coming to Morocco, northwestern Algeria, Spain and France will help improve crop conditions after recent drying, although more may be needed in some areas. Winter crops elsewhere in Europe are rated favorably with little change likely. China’s winter grain crop should be poised to perform well this spring as long as the crop got planted and established well last autumn after early season flooding.
Traders on Thursday will get the weekly USDA export sales report. Traders expect U.S. wheat sales of 150,000 to 600,000 MT in all marketing years.
Technical analysis: SRW wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.36. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.04 and then at $6.15. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.77 3/4 and then at $5.70.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.62 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.80. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.39 1/2 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at $6.25 and then at $6.15.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 90 points to 77.42 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a nearly two-year high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw more technical buying featured today. A weaker U.S. dollar index recently and better risk appetite in the general marketplace has also supported buying interest in cotton futures.
Traders on Thursday will get the weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers that occur should not bring enough rain to prevent the soil from drying out again, leaving the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for dryland planting. The Blacklands will see regular rounds of showers through the next ten days and although most of the rain should not be heavy, soil moisture in place and the occasional rain should support cotton germination, establishment, and development while causing interruptions to fieldwork. The Coastal Bend and South Texas will see less showers during the next two weeks and although some temporary improvements in soil moisture should occur, the rain should not be great enough to prevent net declines in both soil moisture and conditions for cotton.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now short-term overbought and due for a decent corrective pullback. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 73.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 78.00 cents and then at 79.00 cents. First support is seen at 76.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 74.76 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.