Corn
Price action: December corn fell 3 3/4 cents to $4.22, near the daily low. For the week, December corn lost 2 cents.
5-day outlook: It was a choppy trading week in the corn futures market, with the bulls unable to put together a decent winning streak the past two weeks. That suggests the price uptrend on the daily chart may be rolling over. This week’s resurgence in the U.S. dollar index, hitting a four-week high, will provide more headwinds for the corn market in the near term.
Next week’s USDA quarterly stocks report will be key in providing greater insight into supply and demand over the last quarter. A Reuters survey of grain analysts shows the average estimate for September 1 U.S. corn stocks, at 1.337 billion bushels, would be a four-year low and down 24% from a year earlier. However, the analysts collective estimate is above the 1.325 billion bushels USDA projected for 2024/25 corn ending stocks in its September 12 monthly supply and demand report.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said a restricted rainfall pattern will occur across the Midwest through the next two weeks while warm temperatures through the next 10 days keep crop maturation rates high and harvesting should soon become aggressive. Totally dry weather is not expected and many western areas will receive at least some rain Oct. 3-5 that will be beneficial for winter crops. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal to unseasonably warm into the middle of next week and will be warmer to much warmer than normal late next week before some additional cooling occurs the following weekend. There is no risk of frost or freezes through late next week and likely into the following weekend as well.
90-day outlook: Corn harvest will kick into high gear in the coming weeks. The related commercial hedge selling pressure is likely to limit rallies in corn futures prices. On the bright side, export demand for U.S. corn has been good recently, which is likely to keep a floor under prices. New U.S. trade deals in the coming months would likely produce even more global demand for U.S. corn.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 1 1/2 cents to $10.13 3/4, near mid-range and on the week down 11 3/4 cents. December soybean meal rose $1.40 to $274.60, near the daily high and for the week down $9.40. December bean oil fell 8 points to 50.19 cents, near mid-range and for the week down 43 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market bulls are worried about a bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart for November futures that has formed this week. Meal futures continue to be the weakest link in the soy complex futures. Meal will have to perform better in order for soybeans to have a chance to restart a price uptrend.
World Weather Inc. today said a restricted rainfall pattern will occur across the Midwest through the next two weeks while warm temperatures through the next 10 days keep crop maturation rates high and harvesting should soon become aggressive. Totally dry weather is not expected and many western areas will receive at least some rain Oct. 3-5 that will be beneficial for winter crops. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal to unseasonably warm into the middle of next week and will be warmer to much warmer than normal late next week before some additional cooling occurs the following weekend. There is no risk of frost or freezes through late next week and likely into the following weekend as well.
USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report next week is expected to show U.S. soybeans stocks of 323 million bushels, according to a Reuters survey of analysts. That would be down 5.6% from the prior year and below the 330 million bushels that the USDA projected as 2024/25 soybean ending stocks in its September 12 monthly supply and demand report.
30-day outlook: Soybean harvest is under way in the Midwest. Related commercial hedge selling pressure will be a headwind for the soybean market in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: This week around 40 cargoes of Argentine soybeans were registered for export in November and December during the export tax suspension, mostly headed to China. It is important to note China typically buys around 90% of Argentina’s soybean exports. Total bookings still do not stray far from what is considered normal for Argentine exports either. So while Argentine soybean export sales have increased markedly this week, total exports may not stray far from what was expected prior to the tax cut. China has shown a robust need for soybeans. While Argentina will supply short-term needs, that is still just a bandaid. Global needs for soybeans continue to grow and a tight U.S. balance sheet will persist – likely with or without China.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 7 1/4 cents to $5.19 3/4, near the session low and for the week down 2 3/4 cents. December HRW wheat lost 6 3/4 cents to $5.05 1/2, near the daily low and down 1 3/4 cents for the week. Spring wheat futures fell 6 cents today to $5.67 3/4 near the session low, but on the week gained 1/4 of a cent.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets showed some promise this week but today’s losses put prices back down close to their contract lows and will give the chart-based speculators some momentum early next week.
World Weather Inc. today said dry and unusually warm weather through at least the next seven days will be ideal for fieldwork. Quick seed germination and satisfactory emergence of recently planted winter wheat will likely occur except for possibly in unirrigated fields of central Oklahoma and north-central Texas where some greater rainfall is needed. In the Northern Plains, net drying is expected in the next seven days, with above to well-above average temperatures which will continue to be ideal for aggressive fieldwork and harvest advancement. Completely dry weather is unlikely. However, what rain does fall should be limited and mainly in northeastern production areas. Rain is needed to improve wheat emergence and establishment conditions in Montana and neighboring areas, said the forecaster.
USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report is out next week. For U.S. wheat stocks, a Reuters survey of analysts shows the average estimate of 2.043 billion bushels would be up 2.6% from 1.992 billion a year ago, and would represent the largest September 1 wheat stocks figure since 2020. USDA’s final estimate for the 2024-25 wheat crop is set for release next week, too.
30-day outlook: Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. wheat sales of 539,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 43 percent from the previous week and up 37 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 896,000 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 18 percent above the prior 4-week average. Global demand for U.S. wheat is showing some promise, which may mean a near-term low is in place, or very close at hand.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index had a strong showing this week, hitting a four-week high. If the greenback continues to appreciate in the coming months—which could be the case given the recent upbeat U.S. economic data releases that have called into question whether the Fed can keep cutting U.S. interest rates—such would be a headwind for the wheat futures markets.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 12 points to 66.40 cents and nearer the daily high. For the week, December cotton rose 11 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market continues to languish in the lower part of a sideways trading range that has been in place since late spring. Positive for the bulls is that there is strong technical support just below present prices. However, the past few months have seen rallies met with selling pressure to keep the market in check.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said warm temperatures and limited rainfall in all of Texas during the next week to 10 days will help expedite the development of cotton in the west and support maturation and harvesting in the Blacklands. U.S. Delta crops received some rain this week that may have discolored open boll cotton fiber. Dry weather over the next week with warm temperatures should bleach the crop white again. Harvesting will resume after the crop dries down again. Cotton in the Carolinas and Virginia will be vulnerable to a quality decline and possibly a little production loss from the tropical cyclone and excessive rain that may impact those areas early to mid-week next week.
90-day outlook: Today’s closely watched U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE inflation) rose 2.7%, annually, the highest in six months. Recent upbeat U.S. economic data has rallied the U.S. dollar index to a four-week high, as traders are now reassessing whether the Federal Reserve can continue to reduce interest rates amid a generally healthy U.S. economy and sticky inflation. It appears the U.S. economy right now might be in a Goldilocks situation for the cotton market. It’s strong enough to keep consumer attitudes upbeat and the stock market booming. Yet, it’s showing enough signs of some sector weaknesses to allow the Fed to lower interest rates. That’s a positive sign of better consumer confidence and better demand for apparel heading into the fall and the holiday seasons.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.