Corn
Price action: December corn futures closed down 1/4 cent at $4.82 3/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw two-sided trade today. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also aided the corn bulls. However, combines in the Corn Belt are running in high gear, which is prompting some better commercial hedge pressure on corn futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspection totaled 1.302 MMT during the week ended Oct. 8, down 100,977 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within analysts’ pre-report range of 1.1 to 1.4 MMT.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier echoed skepticism regarding the USDA’s surprise decision to lift its U.S. corn yield estimate by 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2 bpa in October. Questioning how yield estimates could rise while crop condition ratings fell, he said production figures may be trimmed in November or January. Cordonnier raised his U.S. corn yield estimate to 180.0 bu. per acre.
China’s corn output is expected to rise this year while imports edge lower, with U.S. supplies “not an option yet” because they remain uneconomical, Zhang Dalong, agricultural products research director at COFCOO futures said earlier today.
Traders will scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, delayed a day due to the federal holiday Monday. The corn crop is expected to be in 54% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, the same as last week. The crop is expected to have been 37% harvested as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said returning frequent rain to areas from Kansas, Missouri and eastern Nebraska to Wisconsin and Illinois in the coming week will see new delays to fieldwork. Southern Brazil is too wet and will stay that way through mid-week. Some flooding is expected and there is a slight risk of crop damage that might warrant some replanting. Drying will occur from late this week into early next week and that should improve crop and field conditions. Timely rain is expected in center-west and perhaps some northeastern crop areas later this week into next week.
Technical analysis: December corn sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.57 1/4. First resistance is seen at $4.90 and then at $4.95. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.78 and then at last week’s low of $4.70 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 4 cents to $12.83 3/4, near mid-range. December soybean meal lost $5.50 to $363.20, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil lost 61 points to 68.02 cents, near the daily low after hitting a four-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market was modestly pressured by commercial hedge selling that is stronger this week as combines are rolling full speed over most of the Midwest. Lower meal futures prices also weighed on beans today. The weaker U.S. dollar index today did somewhat limit selling interest in soybeans.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1.097 MMT during the week ended Oct. 8, down 102,875 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were short of analysts’ pre-report range of 1.2 to 1.5 MMT.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian 2026-27 soybean estimate unchanged at 180.0 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward. He said planting weather has cooperated in Brazil and is now at a record pace. Cordonnier maintained his Argentine soybean production estimate of 54 MMT and holds a neutral bias toward the crop going forward.
Bean traders will scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, delayed a day due to the federal holiday Monday. The soybean crop is expected to be in 57% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, the same as last week. The crop is expected to have been 43% harvested as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soybean harvest will occur rapidly in most areas of the Midwest during the next two weeks, around two rounds of organized precipitation.Heavy rain will fall on some areas from eastern Kansas to Missouri to northern Illinois and southern Michigan today into Thursday and some local flooding may result.
Technical analysis: November soybeans still see a fledgling downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.50. First resistance is seen at $13.00 and then at last week’s high of $13.09. First support is seen last week’s low of $12.69 3/4 and then at $12.56 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $344.20. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $368.80 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $360.00 and then at $355.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 70.08 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 67.33 cents and then at the September low of 66.61 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 3 cents to $6.69 1/4, nearer the daily low. December HRW lost 3 cents to $7.12 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a three-month low. December spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $6.94.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw modest technical selling in choppy trading today. Prices remain trapped in downtrends on the daily bar charts. A weaker U.S. dollar index today did somewhat limit selling interest in wheat futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 304,660 MT during the week ended Oct. 8, up 1,986 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within analysts’ pre-report range of 250,000 to 450,000 MT.
Ukraine is likely to export no more than 11 MMT of wheat in the 2026-27 marketing year, down from 14 MMT in 2025-26 due to blocked Black Sea ports, according to farmer’s union, UAS.
Traders will scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, delayed a day due to the federal holiday Monday. The U.S. winter wheat crop is expected to have been 50% planted as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, fieldwork advanced swiftly Monday, but unusually warm temperatures quickly depleted topsoil moisture. Rain expected today into Friday should help improve soil moisture in many areas. Rain is needed most in Oklahoma where it has been persistently dry.Cooling late this week and into the weekend will help conserve the newly fallen moisture by reducing drying rates. In the Northern Plains, cold air and some snow occurred in central Montana over the weekend, which may have caused some crop and livestock stress following highs in the 80s and 90s last Friday. Lighter precipitation and warming temperatures will occur across much of the crop region for the next few days, which may disrupt some fieldwork, but will generally benefit winter crops.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at $6.80 and then at $6.90. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.61 1/2 and then at $6.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.25 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.08 and then at $7.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 9 points to 80.51 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw quieter two-sided trading today.Selling interest was limited by firmer crude oil prices that hit a nearly three-week high today, as well as a weaker U.S. dollar index.
Traders will scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, delayed a day due to the federal holiday Monday.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see a wetter weather pattern through the next two weeks that will slow harvesting, cause quality declines and possibly cause some production cuts due to boll rot and some stringing out of cotton fibers from the boll during periods of heavy rain.Multiple rounds of heavy rain are likely into Thursday from southern into central and eastern parts of west Texas into the southeastern Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma where some stringing out is likely. A brief period of drier weather will occur Sunday into Monday and the drying will be important in reducing the risk of boll rot. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see regular rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks and the remaining cotton harvest will be slowed by the rain while much of the cotton has likely already been harvested.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures still see prices trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at lastweek’s high of 81.78 cents and then at 82.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 78.77 cents and then at the October low of 77.05 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.