Corn
Price action: December corn fell 8 3/4 cents to $4.72, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market corrected lower following Wednesday’s post-USDA-report solid gains. Price pressure came due in part to improved production prospects in Brazil. That country’s total grain crop in the 2025-26 season is expected to increase 2.4% from the previous one to 260.8 MMT, according to Conab, which estimates Brazil’s total corn crop at 143 MMT, up 1.3% from a year earlier and higher than its previous forecast of 141.7 MMT. Projections indicate an expansion in planted area for both first and second corn crops.
USDA this morning reported weekly old-crop U.S. corn sales totaled 410,700 MT during the week ended Aug. 6, which were up notably from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average. New-crop sales totaled 924,500.
Weather in the Corn Belt still leans price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said Tuesday’s U.S. Midwest derecho induced some crop damage, but relative to the nation’s total production the impact should have been low. Dryness in the northwestern corn and soybean Belt will slowly be eased by repeating showers and thunderstorms over the next 10 days but no general soaking is likely, which will maintain a need for more rain in some areas. European crops will also continue to be stressed over the next few days but there is some potential for gradual relief in the west this weekend into next week.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls need to show good price strength Friday to suggest Wednesday’s gains can be extended. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $4.92. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the August low of $4.57 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.81 1/2 and then at $4.85. First support is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.65.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 40% forward sold and 20% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 50% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 1 cent to $11.82 1/4, near mid-range. September soybean meal fell $1.10 to $307.40, nearer the daily low. September soybean oil fell 37 points to 68.79 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets much of the session saw some mild follow-through buying after Wednesday’s gains. However, those gains could not be held into the close. Losses in the corn market limited the upside in the soybean complex.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales 75,100 MT for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. New-crop sales of 1.76 MMT were reported primarily to China. USDA also this morning reported daily flash sales of 125,000 MT U.S. soybeans to China during 2026-27.
Weather in the Midwest still leans price-bearish for soybeans. World Weather Inc. today said regular rain along with a lack of widespread, significant heat through late next week will ensure crop conditions are favorable and yield potentials are high in much of the Midwest deep into the month, with the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt seeing additional rain and drought relief and improvements in crop conditions. Some crops from eastern Kansas and nearby Nebraska into southern Illinois and nearby areas will be stressed by high temperatures in the 90s and a few lower 100s during the next week with moist soils in place likely to limit rapid increases in crop stress. The wetter areas in the eastern Corn Belt will benefit from less frequent and lighter rain next week.
Technical analysis: The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the July high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.00 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.65 1/4 and then at $11.50.
Soybean meal still sees a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart but now just barely. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $317.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $312.40 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $308.50 and then at this week’s low of $304.30.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at 67.50 cents and then at last week’s low of 66.51 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 35% forward sold on 2026 crop, with another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 55% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW closed steady at $6.52 3/4, near mid-range. September HRW fell 1/4 cent to $7.20 1/2, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat futures fell 3 3/4 cents to $6.69 1/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some chart consolidation and a pause today after Wednesday’s decent gains.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 255,900 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027, which were down 14 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Ukraine plans to ship more grain via the Danube River and neighboring eastern European countries after a Russian blockade of key Black Sea ports decreased 76% year-on-year so far in August, according to Reuters. However, Russia has struck Ukraine’s largest grain export port on the Danube earlier today, causing damage and starting a fire, according to authorities. Russia’s KSK grain terminal in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk has suspended operations, according to its owner, Delo Group, in a statement released earlier today. “The decision was made to ensure the safety of staff and infrastructure,” it said.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, very warm to hot temperatures will dominate the southern U.S. Plains for the next two weeks. The heat and lack of rain will allow drought to prevail in many areas and expand into other areas. A mix of warm and humid conditions and periodic showers and thunderstorms in the central Plains will be good for summer crops. Crop stress in the southern Plains resulting from hot, dry, conditions will cut into yield especially for unirrigated crops. Wheat harvesting should continue to advance around periodic showers. In the Northern Plains, comfortable temperatures in the low 70s to mid-80s will occur by the middle of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also return to the crop region, which will overall bring much needed relief from recent hot and dry weather across the crop region in the past month.
Technical analysis: Price downtrends on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW have been negated. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $7.11 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.65 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at $6.40 and then at last week’s low of $6.26 3/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $7.77 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.35 1/2 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at the August low of $6.93 3/4 and then at $6.75.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures lost 88 points to 83.50 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw routine profit taking from recent gains. Weakness in grains and in crude oil prices also limited buying interest in cotton.
Today’s weekly USDA export sale report showed U.S. cotton sales of 905,000 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027 marketing year, which began August 1, were primarily for Vietnam (222,500 RB), Pakistan (164,200 RB), and Bangladesh (81,100 RB). A total of 778,900 RB in sales were carried over from the 2025/2026 marketing year, which ended July 31. Exports for the period ending July 31 of 67,900 RB brought accumulated exports to 11,198,500 RB, a slight increase from the prior year’s total of 11,191,200 RB. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (23,800 RB), India (15,800 RB) and Pakistan (11,500 RB). Exports for August 1-6 of 140,500 RB were primarily to Vietnam (60,800 RB), Pakistan (13,900 RB) and China (12,700 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said hot to excessively hot, dry, and stressful conditions for cotton occurred in much of the region Wednesday with a few light showers noted in the west where the moisture was quickly lost to evaporation. High temperatures in the west were in the 100s Fahrenheit with areas near Childress, Texas warmest where highs reached 106 to 108 while other areas saw highs in the middle 90s to the lower 100s. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the occasional showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place, while warm to hot temperatures and short soil moisture cause stress to cotton to increase. Showers will be most organized today into Sunday when much of the Panhandle and western and northern parts of West Texas receive at least some rain with most daily totals too light to have a meaningful impact on soil or crop conditions.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the May high of 88.08 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 79.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 84.23 cents and then at this week’s high of 85.25 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 82.60 cents and then at 82.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.