Note: Due to ongoing coverage of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour next week, afternoon analysis newsletters will be condensed and replaced by an extended version of After the Bell.
Corn
Price action: December corn rose 11 1/4 cents to $4.83 1/4, near the daily high, closed at a three-week high close and for the week up 21 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market bulls had a very good week. Importantly today’s solid price rebound from Thursday’s losses, including a technically bullish weekly high close in December corn today, provide a booster shot for the bulls heading into trading next week. The highlight of the week will be the annual Pro Farmer crop tour that market participants will watch very closely all week long.
FranceAgriMer has rated the French corn crop as 29% good to excellent as of August 10, down from 31% a week earlier and 65% from year-ago.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said frequent bouts of rain, hail and damaging wind this week have hurt some crop from South Dakota and Nebraska across Iowa to parts of the central Midwest. This region will see additional stormy weather through mid-week next week and then improved weather should occur in late August. Meantime, European crops will also continue to be stressed over the next few days, but there is some potential for gradual relief in the west this weekend into next week. Any rain that falls will not reverse the damage, but it should help to curb the declining trend. Dryness will continue in the Balkan Countries in and areas east through Ukraine to Russia’s southern region.
90-day outlook: The corn futures market got a significant fundamental shake-up with this week’s August WASDE report. Overall, the report is regarded as mostly friendly due to the cuts in ending stocks despite a minor boost to production. U.S. corn prices were near-even with Brazilian bids before the increase in futures. The now-higher prices may slow export demand in the near-term. The EIA showed U.S. ethanol production at 1.117 million barrels per day the week ending August 7. Biofuels continue to see supportive demand as oil prices remain volatile. Ethanol bids in Iowa are up 19 cents a gallon, or 11 percent, from year-ago levels.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 40% forward sold and 20% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 50% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 10 1/4 cents to $11.92 1/2, near the daily high and for the week up 16 1/4 cents. September soybean meal rose $2.80 to $310.20, near mid-range and for the week up $1.30. September bean oil rose 65 points to 69.44 cents, nearer the daily high and for the week up 120 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean complex futures got support today from solid gains in corn and wheat futures markets. Today’s technically bullish weekly high closes in beans, meal and bean oil set the table for follow-through buying from the chart-based specs early next week. However, wetter weather in the Midwest, including some rains in previously dry areas, leans price-bearish for the soy complex. Focus of the soybean and corn markets next week will be squarely on the popular Pro Farmer annual crop tour.
Meanwhile, China continues to step in as a buyer. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 136,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during the 2026-27 marketing year.
Monday afternoon comes the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said regular rain into the middle of next week along with a lack of widespread, significant heat through at least late next week will ensure crop conditions are favorable and yield potentials are high in much of the Midwest deep into the month, with the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt seeing additional rain and drought relief and improvements in crop conditions. Some crops from eastern Kansas and nearby Nebraska into southern Illinois and nearby areas will be stressed by high temperatures in the 90s and a few lower 100s into Sunday with moist soils in place likely to limit rapid increases in crop stress. The wetter areas in the eastern Corn Belt will benefit from less frequent and lighter rain next week. The southwestern Corn Belt will be driest overall during the next two weeks and rain in late August would benefit the soybean crop.
90-day outlook: While this week’s WASDE did increase 2026/27 soybean ending stocks, the change was minor enough to be mostly neutral for beans. Outstanding export sales for the upcoming crop year are at 10.13 MMT, over double the 4.71 MMT seen at this time last year. USDA lowered crop conditions 1% to 62% good to excellent this week as well. In the coming months, cuts to Malaysian palm oil production, a substitute of soy oil, will be monitored as impacts of the El Nino weather phenomenon come into focus around the globe. A reduction could drive further crush demand for soy. Meantime, tensions between the U.S. and China over trade will also heighten the importance of domestic crush use in keeping demand firm. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington, D.C. in September.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 35% forward sold on 2026 crop, with another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 55% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW wheat rose 22 cents to $6.74 3/4, near the daily high, hit a three-week high and for the week up 35 cents. September HRW wheat gained 33 3/4 cents to $7.54 1/4, near the daily high, hit a three-week high and for the week up 40 1/4 cents. September spring wheat futures rose 9 cents to $6.78 1/4, near mid range and for the week down 1 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets today saw renewed buying interest amid worries about grain supplies coming out of the Black Sea. The technically bullish weekly high closes in HRW and SRW suggest follow-through, chart-based buying early next week.
Ukraine has secured funding to acquire additional storage capacity for the 2026 grain harvest, due to a sharp decline in exports, according to its agriculture minister Taras Vysotskyi earlier today. The ministry said the storage shortfall could reach 11 MMT and that it had asked U.S. partners for support in procuring equipment for temporary on-farm storage.
Spring wheat harvest pressure showed in price action in HRS futures this week, as spring wheat saw limited gains compared to winter wheat. Hot, dry weather has allowed for all states except Montana to see harvest above the five-year averages as of August 9. The North Dakota Wheat Commission said yield reports have been average to above-average thus far.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said good harvest weather has been occurring in the northern U.S. Plains and Pacific Northwest. Most other U.S. harvesting is complete. Spring wheat, barley and other small grains in the U.S. Northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies are stressed and losing yield potential due to the lack of rain. Cool weather briefly this week and some showers and thunderstorms will reduce crop stress, but it is unclear how significant the improvement will be. Most likely additional rain will be needed. Meantime, too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands, possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. The wet bias is expected to prevail for the next 10 days. Good winter crop harvest weather continues in Russia’s southern region and parts of Ukraine. Southeastern Europe has been drying out recently and that is helping to promote winter crop maturation and harvesting, but some spring crops are stressed. Australia’s wheat and barley are well established except in Queensland. Seasonal cooling is pushing some southern crops into semi-dormancy and any new moisture will be of use during the spring. Spring drought and excessive heat in eastern Australia are expected to present a threat to crops in Queensland and northeastern New South Wales, but that is still a few weeks away.
90-day outlook: Global wheat supplies will remain in the spotlight in the coming months. The European Union, a sizable producer of SRW, also saw a production cut of 1.8 MMT by USDA. However, this week’s WASDE report did not show a global wheat stocks figure as friendly as expected by analysts. Still, USDA’s current figures showed only minor cuts to exports out of the Black Sea region. Assuming the conflict continues, those figures could move lower in coming months.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 130 points to 84.80 cents, nearer the daily high and closed at a three-month high close. For the week, December cotton was up 40 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw more chart-based buying as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart remains firmly in place. Today’s technically bullish weekly high close also gives the bulls confidence heading into trading early next week. Rallies in the grain markets today also spilled over into better buying interest in cotton futures.
Traders will be eyeing Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said west Texas and the Texas Blacklands need rain in unirrigated fields to support the best production potential. Dryland crops in west Texas have been deteriorating recently and the trend will continue for the next 10 days. The Delta is also unlikely to see much rain leading to some increase in crop moisture stress. Dryland crops in west Texas will be most stressed by heat and dryness, despite showers in the next couple of days. Cotton in most other U.S. production areas is in varying condition, with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. Rain has fallen recently in the Carolinas and Georgia, easing long-term dryness. Favorable harvest weather should continue in Argentina and Brazil during the next 10 days.
90-day outlook: A surprising surge in the U.S. stock market during what typically are the summer doldrums has helped out the cotton futures bulls and puts consumers in a better frame of mind heading into the fall apparel season. This week’s tamer U.S. inflation reports (CPI, PPI) also assuaged consumers who may have been worried about rising interest rates. However, gasoline prices at the pump are back around $4.00 a gallon, on average. That’s a potentially bearish development for consumer confidence and cotton futures in the coming month.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.