Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 1 cent to $4.63 3/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw a mild corrective pullback today earlier in the session, with buying interest also limited by weaker soybean prices. However, selling interest was limited by solid gains in the winter wheat futures markets that eventually led to a slight gain on the day.
USDA reported weekly corn sales totaled 1.32 MMT during the week ended April 16, down 6% from the previous week but up 3% from the four-week average. New crop sales of 440,100 MT were reported to Mexico. Old- and new-crop sales were within pre-report expectations.
The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its world corn production forecast to 1.3 billion tons, down from its previous estimate of 1.303 billion.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. will slow down in the heart of the Midwest and Delta next week because of more frequent and significant rain. Drought in the southeastern states will remain, although some scattered showers are possible next week. Meantime, southern Safrinha corn areas in Brazil will get some needed rain in the next ten days easing dryness for “some” areas. Follow up rain will be very important. Some drying will continue in southeastern Mato Grosso, Goias and northeastern Mato Grosso do Sul, though these areas have at least some moisture to carry on crop development for a while.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices are now trending up. Recent price gains suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the April low of $4.48 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.66 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.61 and then at $4.55.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 4 3/4 cents to $11.74 3/4, nearer the daily low. July soybean meal rose $0.20 to $316.50, near mid-range. July soybean oil rose 5 points to 71.05 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean market bulls once again shuddered today when they saw news reports the U.S. fired another shot across China’s bow—this time regarding China trying to illicitly obtain U.S. artificial intelligence information. Short covering was featured in meal today, while profit taking was seen early on in soybean oil futures, but then some bargain hunting surfaced late to push prices just above unchanged by the close.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 364,600 MT for 2025-26 during the week ended April 16. Net sales were up 47% from the previous week, but down 7% from the four-week average. New crop sales of 5,000 MT were reported for Malaysia. Old- and new-crop sales were within pre-report expectations.
The Argentine trucker protest over higher freight rates have caused delays and paralyzed access to the Quequen port, though farmers have agreed to make an effort to settle the dispute, according to Reuters.
World Weather Inc. today said much of the eastern Midwest will see little precipitation of significance today and planting will increase while rain returns to most of the western Midwest today and spreads into the eastern Midwest Friday, followed by another round of precipitation and delays to planting Sunday into Monday. Precipitation will become less frequent next Tuesday through May 7 and planting should steadily increase, but there will be precipitation in the lower Midwest next Wednesday into next Thursday and precipitation in much of the Midwest May 4-6 that will slow fieldwork.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of $12.01 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $11.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at $11.85 and then at $12.01 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.77 and then at last week’s low of $11.68.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of $323.90 and then at this week’s high of $327.70. First support is seen at $316.00 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 74.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.35 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 71.39 cents and then at 72.00 cents. First support is seen at 70.00 cents and then at Tuesday’s low of 69.11 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 13 1/4 cents to $6.20 1/4, near the daily high and hit a three-week high. July HRW gained 29 1/4 cents to $6.79 1/4, near the daily high and hit a 14-month high. July spring wheat futures rose 10 1/2 cents to $6.91 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW wheat futures markets today saw a bullish upside breakout from a choppy trading range at higher levels, which suggests more price upside in the near term. SRW followed on the coattails of HRW today.
Weather leans bullish for wheat—especially HRW. World Weather Inc. today said partial relief to drought is possible in some hard red winter wheat areas during the next 10 days, but no general soaking is likely in the driest areas, leaving an ongoing need for greater rain. “Production may be down due to dryness and bitter cold without snow on the ground earlier in the winter,” said World Weather.
Reports that the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Argentina’s wheat crop production will be down 3% this year were also supportive for wheat futures prices.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 129,000 MT for 2025-26 during the week ended April 16, up 29% from the previous week but down 25% from the four-week average. New crop sales totaling 8,000 MT were reported for South Korea and Honduras. Old-crop sales were within pre-report expectations, while new-crop sales were well below.
IGC lowered its 2026-27 world wheat production forecast to 821 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 822 MMT.
India’s wheat output is likely to fall 5-10% from 2025 levels, according to trade officials, after rain and hail ahead of harvest cut yields.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh strength today. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.36. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at $6.25 and then at $6.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.07 1/4 and then at this week’s low of $5.98 1/2.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.80 1/4 and then at $6.90. First support is seen at $6.63 and then at $6.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures lost rose 81 points to 79.45 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures today saw a decent corrective rebound from Wednesday’s strong losses that did produce a big and bearish technical key reversal down on the daily bar chart, which is one chart clue that a market top is in place. However, good follow-through buying on Friday would negate the bearish key reversal.
Today’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. cotton sales of 119,900 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026, down 26 percent from the previous week and down 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (62,100 RB), Turkey (22,400 RB) and Pakistan (15,900 RB). There were sales reductions for China of 8,700 RB. Net sales of 57,100 RB for 2026/2027 reported for Vietnam (17,600 RB), Indonesia (17,600 RB) and Pakistan (13,200 RB). Exports of 296,400 RB were down 3 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (89,000 RB), Pakistan (46,600 RB), India (25,100 RB), Bangladesh (22,000 RB), and Indonesia (21,300 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers that occur should not bring enough rain to significantly boost soil moisture leaving the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for dryland planting. Rain should be most organized Apr. 29-30. The Blacklands will see occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks that should bring enough rain to improve soil moisture and conditions for cotton germination, establishment, and development while rain is infrequent and mostly light in South Texas and the Coastal Bend.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart. However, Wednesday’s bearish key reversal down on the daily chart is a warning signal of a market top being in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at this week’s high of 81.79 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 80.00 cents and then at 81.79 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 77.66 cents and then at 77.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.