Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $4.55 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a five-week low overnight.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw short covering and perceived bargain buying today. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also worked in favor of the corn market bulls.
Corn traders are awaiting Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report (Delayed by one day because of the holiday Monday.) The report is expected to show U.S. corn sales in all marketing years of 1.1 to 2.4 million MT.
World Weather Inc. today said their forecast today is wetter than what was advertised earlier this week for eastern Kansas and Missouri to the eastern Dakotas Friday into Tuesday, where fieldwork will be interrupted and beneficial increases in soil moisture result as well. Rain during the next two weeks should still not be great enough to prevent fieldwork from advancing well overall and for planting to soon be completed in most areas. Soil moisture in much of the Midwest is high enough to support crop development deep into June without significant rain, but rain will be needed soon to ensure soil moisture remains favorable during potential periods of hot and dry weather later in the summer. There is some potential for heat to build in the Plains late in the first week of June before expanding into the western Corn Belt and a close watch on the period will be made.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field at present. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.70. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the April low of $4.48 1/2. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $4.59 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $4.63. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.51 1/2 and then at $4.48 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 9 1/4 cents to $11.94 1/2, nearer the daily high. July soybean meal rose $3.50 to $334.10, nearer the daily high. July soybean oil rose 144 points to 76.70 cents, near the daily high and is back very close to the contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex markets today saw renewed buying interest amid a weaker U.S. dollar index. Short covering and perceived value-buying were featured.
Bean traders are awaiting Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report (Delayed by one day because of the holiday Monday.) The report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales in all marketing years of 150,000 to 400,000 MT.
Weather in the Midwest favors the soybean bears at present. World Weather Inc. today said net drying is expected in a part of the U.S. Midwest over the coming week and temperatures will be warmer. Most of the change will be welcome but there are parts of northern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin, northwestern Indiana and southwestern Michigan that need a moisture boost. Weekend rain brought some relief to dryness in southeastern South Dakota and Minnesota, although more rain is needed.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.35. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $11.72 1/4. First resistance is seen at $12.00 and then at $12.12. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.79 3/4 and then at $11.72 1/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and a bullish pennant pattern has formed. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the May high of $342.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.80. First resistance comes in at $335.60 and then at $340.00. First support is seen at $330.00 and then at last week’s low of $326.20.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out, however. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 76.99 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 72.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 76.99 cents and then at 78.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 74.70 cents and then at this week’s low of 72.99 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 1 1/2 cents to $6.24, near mid-range and hit a nearly three-week low early on. July HRW lost 4 1/2 cents to $6.65 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a five-week low. September spring wheat futures fell 3 1/4 cents to $7.02 , nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets bulls are trying to stop the bleeding. Higher corn and soybean complex prices today did limit selling interest in SRW, but the HRW bears are keeping their foot on the gas. A weaker U.S. dollar index today did aid the SRW wheat bulls.
Wheat traders are awaiting Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report (Delayed by one day because of the holiday Monday.) The report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales in all marketing years of 100,000 to 500,000 MT.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, more meaningful rainfall is expected in the next seven days and will be beneficial for the region. However, this will still be a little too late for some of the unirrigated winter wheat crop. The rain will be most beneficial for the region’s summer crop production. Concerns over fieldwork delays are low due to the erratic nature of the rain. In the Northern Plains, some beneficial rainfall is still expected in the next seven days in Montana. Much more rain will be needed. However, what rain does fall will help provide an increase in topsoil moisture. Conditions farther to the east should involve a mostly favorable mix of rain and sunshine.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart for SRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $6.88 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $6.38 3/4 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at 6.15 and then at the May low of $6.05 1/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.86 1/4 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.60 and then at $6.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 61 points to 76.77 cents, near the session high and hit a six-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw some short covering today. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also aided the cotton market bulls.
Cotton traders are awaiting Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report (Delayed by one day because of the holiday Monday.)
World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. southern Plains, recent and additional rain into June 6 will leave much of the region with improvements in soil moisture and conditions for dryland germination, establishment, and development and planting should increase when drier weather returns June 7-11. Many areas will need another round of timely rain in the second half of June. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see little rain into Sunday and fieldwork should increase before showers occur most days Monday into June 10, slowing fieldwork while maintaining mostly favorable soil moisture.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart to suggest the bulls are exhausted and that a near-term market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 85.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 79.09 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 75.42 cents and then at 75.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.