Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $4.13, near the daily high and hit a six-week-low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some short covering today but the market is still wobbly in the wake of a rapid deterioration in U.S.-China relations. Recent gains in the U.S. dollar index and a slumping crude oil market that today hit a 4.5-month low were bearish outside-market elements that limited gains in corn today. The 14-day lack of fresh USDA data for traders to digest, due to the government shutdown, remains bearish for the grains.
USDA reported weekly U.S. corn inspections of 1.13 MMT for the week ended Oct. 9, down 571,926 MT from the previous week but remain well ahead of year ago.
A Reuter’s poll showed analysts estimate the U.S. corn harvest to have been 44% complete as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said rain coming to Brazil later this week and into the weekend will be good for improved planting, germination and emergence conditions. Drier weather will return again next week, although that should offer an excellent opportunity for fieldwork after the weekend rain. Argentina weather is expected to be favorably mixed, although rain amounts should be light in many areas. U.S. harvest weather will be very good in the Delta, lower and eastern Midwest and interior southeastern states this week. Conditions will trend a little wetter at times during the coming weekend and next week slowing fieldwork periodically, but no harm to crop quality is anticipated, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.24 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.15 and then at $4.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.09 1/4 and then at $4.05.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans lost 1 1/4 cents to $10.06 1/2, near mid-range. December soybean meal rose 20 cents to $274.30, near mid-range and hit a two-week low. December soybean oil fell 3 points to 50.57 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market is in a pause mode early this week, amid the serious erosion in U.S.-China relations. Recent gains in the U.S. dollar index and a down-trending crude oil market that today hit a 4.5-month low were bearish outside-market elements for the soy complex today. The 14-day lack of fresh USDA data for traders to digest, due to the government shutdown, remains bearish for the grains.
USDA today reported U.S. soybean export inspections for the week ended Oct. 9 totaled 994,008 MT, up 210,513 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the pre-report range of 400,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
A Reuter’s poll showed analysts estimated the U.S. soybean harvest to have been 58% complete as of last Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said rain during the next two weeks should not be great enough to prevent good harvest progress in much of the Midwest. At least some rain will occur during the next two weeks with the Dakotas and northeastern Nebraska to northern Illinois and Wisconsin seeing rain into Thursday before the southwestern Corn Belt to Wisconsin and the eastern Corn Belt receives rain Friday into Sunday. The Ohio River Basin will be wettest Friday into Sunday and will see the longest interruptions to fieldwork. Temperatures through Friday will be mostly much warmer than normal to unseasonably warm.
Soy complex traders will closely examine Wednesday’s NOPA crush report, which is expected to show a slight decline in crush from the month prior.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a neutral overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $10.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $9.93. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.13 and then at $10.20. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at $9.93.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $282.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $270.10. First resistance comes in at $276.00 and then at $278.00. First support is seen at $272.00 and then at $270.10.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at 51.00 cents and then at last Friday’s high of 51.68 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 49.68 cents and then at 48.89 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 3 1/2 cents to $5.00 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a contract low early on today. December HRW rose 7 1/4 cents to $4.88 1/2, near the daily high and hit a contract low early on. December spring wheat futures rose 2 cents to $5.35 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets were under mild selling pressure much of the session, but in late trading some active short covering lifted prices above unchanged, with HRW leading the way.
Recent gains in the U.S. dollar index and a slumping crude oil market that today hit a 4.5-month low are bearish outside-market elements for the grains that may limit upside potential in the near term. The 14-day lack of fresh USDA data for traders to digest, due to the government shutdown, remains bearish for the grains. The rapid deterioration in U.S.-China relations is also casting a pall over the winter wheat futures markets.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. wheat inspections totaled 444,138 MT for the week ended Oct. 9, down 104,085 MT from the previous week and on the low-end of the pre-report range of 400,000 to 550,000 MT.
A Reuter’s poll showed analysts estimated winter wheat plantings to have been 66% complete as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and most of the soft wheat in the Midwest will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks, “resulting in good planting, germination and emergence conditions. Some greater rain will be desired in the drier pockets.” Canada’s eastern Prairies received rain and snow Sunday and Monday to improve the moisture profile in the soil and Manitoba will get some additional rain later this week. Areas to the west are still dry and need moisture for better winter crop establishment and for improved moisture for use next year. Snow on the ground in the eastern Prairies should melt quickly. Wheat areas in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan still need more moisture to see better establishment. This week’s precipitation will be restricted, although next week will trend wetter, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of $5.09 1/2 and then at $5.20. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.92 1/4 and then at $4.85.
December HRW wheat scored a bullish “key reversal” up today. However, there will need to be good follow-through buying Wednesday or Thursday to better suggest a near-term bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.20. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at $5.00 and then at $5.10. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.77 1/4 and then at $4.70.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 8 points to 63.51 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a contract low early on.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures’ high-range close today, after hitting a contract low early on, begins to suggest the bears are now exhausted. Recent gains in the U.S. dollar index and a slumping crude oil market that today hit a 4.5-month low were bearish outside-market elements for cotton today. The 14-day lack of fresh USDA data for traders to digest, due to the government shutdown, remains bearish for the natural fiber.
World Weather Inc. today said any showers that occur in West Texas over the next week should be insignificant to the maturing cotton crop. There is some potential for greater rain briefly in the middle to latter part of next week as a new tropical system moves into Mexico from the eastern Pacific Ocean, although confidence in that rain event is still low. U.S. Delta and interior parts of the southeastern states will experience a restricted rainfall pattern through the end of this workweek. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the Delta this weekend before shifting to the east into the southeastern states next week. Fieldwork will be slowed and temporary discoloring of cotton fiber is possible. Some of the southwestern U.S. cotton has been subjected to a quality decline because of tropical moisture in recent days, although drier weather is coming to improve crops once again, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 64.42 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 62.71 cents and then at 62.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.