Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.44, near mid-range and hit a more-than-three-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The price downdraft in the corn futures market continues. Today’ s pressure came in part due to a stronger U.S. dollar index and a risk-off atmosphere in the general marketplace, on reports Iran is backing out of the peace talks negotiations. Iran media reported negotiators will suspend “talks and exchange of documents through mediators,” in protest to Israel’s expanded ground assault in Lebanon, according to Bloomberg. The corn market got no traction from sharply higher crude oil prices today. Last week, the grains were pressured in part on a big drop in crude oil prices.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.728 MMT during the week ended May 28, up 123,896 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were near the low-end of the expected pre-report range of 1.4 MMT to 2.03 MMT.
Farmers in Brazil’s center-south had harvested 2.4% of their 2026 corn crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was up from 0.9% from the previous week and above the 1.3% reported a year earlier.
Weather in the Corn Belt leans price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur during the next two weeks, with breaks between rounds of rain likely to allow planting to advance and soon be completed in much of the region. Most central into eastern areas will see dry weather and favorable conditions for fieldwork into Wednesday. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for late this week into this weekend along with additional showers into June 15 from eastern Iowa into central and northern Illinois and Wisconsin, where the topsoil has recently firmed up and mostly dry conditions are expected into Wednesday. Soil moisture in place in much of the Midwest and rain advertised during the next two weeks should favorably support crop development deep into the month if drier weather were to evolve in the second half of June.
Corn traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, including the first condition ratings for the corn crop. The initial corn rating is expected to see the crop in 70% good to excellent condition, compared to 69% last year at the same time. The data is expected to show 94% of the corn crop planted as of Sunday.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid the steep price downdraft. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.60. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.33 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.45 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.40 and then at $4.36.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 5 cents to $11.80 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low. July soybean meal lost $3.30 to $326.50, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low. July soybean oil rose 137 points to 79.09 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures sold off today amid a stronger U.S. dollar index and a risk-off trading day in the general marketplace. Spreaders were featured buying bean oil and selling meal today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections of 494,286 MT during the week ended May 26, down 94,611 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were near the low-end of analysts’ pre-report range of 400,000 to 600,000 MT.
Weather in the Midwest favors the soybean bears at present. World Weather Inc. today said net drying is expected in a part of the U.S. Midwest over the coming week and temperatures will be seasonably warm. Most of the change will be welcome but there are parts of northern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin, northwestern Indiana and southwestern Michigan that need a moisture boost already and may become too dry over time. Recent rain in southeastern South Dakota, Nebraska and neighboring states has brought some relief from dryness; though more rain is needed. Key Midwestern crop areas should see a moisture boost next week.
Soy complex traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, including the first condition ratings for soybeans. The crop is expected to be in 67% good to excellent condition as of Sunday—the same as last year at the same time. The U.S. soybean crop is expected to be 87% planted as of Sunday.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.35. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $11.72 1/4. First resistance is seen at $11.90 and then at $12.00. First support is seen at $11.72 1/4 and then at the April low of $11.56 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Prices are still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the May high of $342.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.80. First resistance comes in at $330.00 and then at $335.60. First support is seen at $324.00 and then at $320.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been restarted. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 72.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 79.69 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW lost 1 3/4 cents to $6.08 3/4, near the daily low and hit a three-week low. July HRW fell 2 3/4 cents to $6.47, nearer the daily low and hit a five-week low. September spring wheat futures fell 13 cents to $6.75 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling featured amid a risk-off trading day in the general marketplace. A stronger U.S. dollar index today was also a negative for wheat. Wheat bulls got no traction today from sharp gains in crude oil prices amid Iran reportedly discontinuing peace talks with the U.S.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of 402,346 MT during the week ended May 26, up 22,575 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the expected pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
Sovecon cut its 2025-26 Russian wheat export forecast 0.6 MMT 46.8 MMT and raised its 2026-27 export forecast for Russian wheat by 1.1 MMT 46.3 MMT.
Wheat traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.Wheat traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. The reports are expected to show U.S. spring wheat condition at 56% good to excellent compared to 50% in the same category one year ago. U.S. spring wheat planted is seen at 95% complete—the same as one year ago 95% at the same time. U.S. winter wheat harvested is seen at 4% complete versus 3% one year ago. The U.S. winter wheat condition is seen at 27% good to excellent as of Sunday, versus 26% last week and 52% in the same category one year ago.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in the next seven days to support summer crop development. The rain is likely too late for some of the unirrigated winter wheat. However, rainfall will still be beneficial for the region. Temperatures will be generally near to above average. In the Northern Plains, some much-needed rainfall occurred this past weekend in Montana and has helped provide a notable improvement in topsoil moisture. Additional rainfall in the Northern Plains over the next seven days will be mostly favorable. However, some localized flooding may occur where the greatest thunderstorm activity is seen.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.20 and then at $6.30. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.90.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.61 1/2 and then at $6.70. First support is seen at $6.40 and then at $6.30.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 49 points to 76.64 cents, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw some more short covering today. Gains were limited by a risk-off trading day in the general marketplace and by a stronger U.S. dollar index.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see a few light showers today and planting should advance well before significant showers and thunderstorms occur Tuesday into Saturday, with Sunday into June 15 dry most often. Isolated and light showers will bring rain to a few locations today. Recent and additional rain into Saturday will leave much of the region with improvements in soil moisture and conditions for dryland germination, establishment, and development and planting should increase when drier weather returns Sunday into June 15. Many areas will need another round of timely rain in the second half of June. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see regular rounds of rain during the next two weeks slowing fieldwork while maintaining favorable soil moisture.
Cotton traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 85.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 78.15 cents and then at 79.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 75.42 cents and then at 75.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.