Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 4 3/4 cents to $4.80, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw spillover buying interest after wheat futures prices soared following a bullish USDA monthly supply and demand report. Higher crude oil prices today that are back above $100 a barrel were also supportive for corn.
Today’s USDA monthly supply and demand report saw the agency add 15 million bu. to 2025-26 corn carryover from last month. The estimate is also 11 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA left feed and residual use unchanged at 6.2 million bu. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.15, steady from the previous month. For 2026-27, USDA projects corn carryover of 1.957 billion bu. – that is 24 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. U.S. corn production is projected at 15.995 billion bu. on planted acres of 95.3 million acres and a national average corn yield of 183 bu. per acre. On the demand side, USDA puts feed & residual use at 6.1 billion bu. (down 100 million bu. from this year), food, seed & industrial use at 5.6 billion, unchanged from the previous year (corn-for-ethanol use is 5.6 billion bu., also unchanged), and exports are projected at 3.15 billion bu. (down 150 million bu. from the previous year). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2026-27 at $4.40, up 25 cents from this year.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the United States should advance around periods of rainfall. Drought has recently been eased in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states, though each area needs more moisture to end drought. Wet and cool weather in the lower Midwest in the coming week will slow fieldwork. Meantime, southern Safrinha corn areas of Brazil received some beneficial rain during the weekend and all of Safrinha crop country will experience scattered showers and thunderstorms from late this week into mid-week next week to help reproducing and filling crops. Argentina drying will be ideal for the maturation and harvest of summer crops. Frost and freezes during the weekend helped to end the growing season for some areas
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls are now working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March and April high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.61. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.81 3/4 and then at $4.87 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.72 3/4 and then at $4.70.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 13 3/4 cents to $12.26 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a two-month high. July soybean meal rose $3.60 to $328.40, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high. July soybean oil gained 162 points to 75.36 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw spillover buying support from soaring wheat futures prices.
USDA in today’s S&D report cut 10 million bu. from 2025-26 U.S. soybean carryover from last month. The estimate is also 5 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes on the supply side of the balance sheet. USDA put the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2025-26 at $10.40, up a dime from last month. On new-crop beans, USDA projects carryover of 310 million bu., down 30 million bu. from this year and 34 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. The U.S. bean crop is projected at 4.435 billion bu. on planted acres of 84.7 million and a national average soybean yield of 53 bu. per acre.
Thursday and Friday, the highly anticipated summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in China will be very closely watched by grain traders and especially soybean traders. Bean bulls are upbeat about a positive outcome from the meeting that could mean China purchasing more U.S. soybeans. For more Pro Farmer perspective on the U.S.-China summit and other ag-related events this week, click here.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest a mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks will lead to favorable conditions for summer crop germination, establishment, and development in most areas while planting will be slowed at times with fieldwork likely to advance well overall around the precipitation. A close watch will be made on rain this weekend into early next week from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota, where soil moisture is marginal to short.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the March high of $12.50 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.80. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.32 3/4 and then at $12.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.11 1/4 and then at $12.00.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.70. First resistance comes in at $331.10 and then at $335.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $323.80 and then at this week’s low of $318.50.
Bean oil bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 76.00 cents and then at the contract high of 76.99 cents. First support is seen at 73.10 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose the 45-cent daily limit to $6.79 and hit a 1.5-year high for the contract. July HRW gained the limit of 45 cents to $7.31 1/4 and hit a nearly three-year high for the contract. Both markets will see expanded 70-cent daily trading limits on Wednesday. September spring wheat futures rose 36 3/4 cents to $7.44 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets rocketed higher today after a very bullish USDA monthly supply and demand report. The agency’s initial U.S. winter wheat crop estimate plunged 354 million bu. from last year and came 164 million bu. below the average pre-report estimate. The winter wheat yield is estimated at 47.6 bu. per acre, down 7.3 bu. from last year. Harvested acreage is estimated at 22.015 million acres, down 3.493 million acres from last year. Estimated production for all three winter wheat categories came in lower than expected. The all-wheat crop projection implies spring wheat production of 513 million bu. between other spring wheat and durum.
A rally in the crude oil market today also supported buying interest in wheat.
World weather today said U.S. HRW country will see a gradual increase in thunderstorm activity in the next seven days. However, net drying is a possibility across much of the western 30% of the region. What rain does fall will be beneficial and the greatest rain will occur in eastern production areas. The potential for severe thunderstorms will also be increasing due to greater atmospheric instability for weather disturbances and frontal boundaries to interact with. In the U.S. Northern Plains, shower and thunderstorm activity in the next seven days will still be generally near to below average. As temperatures warm, the need continues to grow for greater rainfall in the western half of the region. This still isn’t a major issue as of right now but does warrant a close monitoring of the forecast since drought in Montana could worsen if meaningful rainfall does not evolve soon. Temperatures will be above average this week, though cooling will occur next week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained good power today. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $6.20. First resistance is seen at $6.85 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.60 and then at $6.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75. First resistance is seen at $7.40 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at $7.18 1/2 and then at $7.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 145 points to 86.32 cents, near the daily low after hitting a contract high early on.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw heavy profit-taking pressure and some weak long liquidation today, after recent solid gains.
Today’s USDA monthly supply and demand report saw the agency leave old-crop U.S. cotton carryover unchanged from April. Total old-crop supplies were unchanged at 17.9 million bales. Old-crop use at 13.6 million bales is unchanged. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 at 63 cents, up two cents from last month. New-crop cotton carryover of 3.9 million bales is down 500,000 bales from this year. Total supplies are projected at 17.71 million bales, down 190,000 bales from the current marketing year. The crop is projected at 13.3 million bales, down 600,000 bales from last year. Planted acres are put at 9.64 million with harvested acres at 7.38 million and a national average cotton yield of 866 lbs. per acre. Exports are projected at 12.3 million bales, up 300,000 bales from this year. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2026-27 at 73 cents, up a dime from this year.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry most often, with a few infrequent showers through May 19 allowing for good planting progress while the soil will be too dry in most dryland areas to support cotton development. After that, a close watch will be made on May 20-25 when isolated to scattered showers should occur most days and at least some temporary improvements in soil moisture should occur with a more generalized rain needed to induce widespread, significant improvements in soil moisture. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will be dry most often into Sunday and fieldwork should advance well before daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms next week slow fieldwork while improving soil moisture with South Texas benefitting most from the rain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 81.85 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 88.55 cents and then at 89.00 cents. First support is seen at 86.00 cents and then at 85.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.