Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 8 1/4 cents to $4.43, near the daily high after hitting a contract low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also worked in favor of the corn market bulls. Some position squaring was also likely featured ahead of next Tuesday’s USDA planted acreage update and quarterly grain stocks report. Hotter and drier weather moving into the Corn Belt in the coming days may also have spooked the corn bears, though it’s too early to suggest any crop damage from the heat or drier weather. Still, one local TV station in Des Moines showed a “heat dome” map over much of the Midwest (centered in the eastern part) for the next week.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 743,100 MT during the week ended June 18, down 36% from the previous week and 27% from the four-week average. Net sales of 735,900 MT were reported for 206-27. Analysts expected old-crop sales to range from 600,000 MT to 1.3 MMT and new-crop sales from 300,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2026-27 global corn production by 10 MMT to 1.310 billion tons, that’s still behind the previous season’s 1.339 billion tons.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Corn Belt, drying is likely in South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and northeastern Nebraska during the next 10 days, raising crop moisture stress in time. High heat and humidity will occur across all of the Midwest this weekend. Cooling will return to the northern and eastern Midwest in the second week of July. Some net drying is likely in the heart of Midwest this weekend through most of next week, though significant rain will fall tonight into Saturday in the lower parts of the Midwest. Meantime, southern Safrinha corn areas of Brazil will receive additional waves of rain slowing crop maturation and harvest progress.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, today’s price action produced a bullish “key reversal” up on the daily bar chart, and if there is follow-through price strength on Friday to better confirm it, such would be one chart clue that a market bottom is in place.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.53. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.25. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.45 1/2 and then at $4.49 1/2. First support is seen at $4.35 and then at today’s contract low of $4.31 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 22 cents to $11.57, near the daily high. September soybean meal rose $4.60 to $303.60, near the daily high. September soybean oil gained 131 points to 68.58 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets today saw short covering, perceived bargain buying and some position evening ahead of next Tuesday’s USDA planted acreage and quarterly grain stocks data. A weaker U.S. dollar index today was also supportive for the soy complex, as well as firmer crude oil prices. Hotter and drier weather moving into the Corn Belt in the coming days may also have spooked the soy complex bears, though it’s too early to suggest any crop damage from the heat or drier weather. Still, one local TV station in Des Moines showed a “heat dome” map over much of the Midwest (centered in the eastern part) for the next week.
Reports said Argentine oilseed processors are threatening a strike next week as wage talks between unions and the country’s crushing and export industry remain unresolved. That was also supportive to the soy complex futures today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 455,400 MT for the week ended June 18, down 78% from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average. New crop sales totaled 902,200 MT. Analysts expected old-crop sales to range from 100,000 to 500,000 MT and new-crop sales between 450,000 MT and 1.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest a transition from regular rain and mild temperatures to a warmer and drier weather pattern will occur this weekend into next week, with soil moisture in place and expected rain adequate in favorably supporting crop development through early July, while production potentials will remain very high. A ridge of high pressure will impact the Midwest this weekend into early July, but the ridge will not be centered on the Midwest during most of the period and there will be showers most days that will slow drying rates and will help to keep humidity high enough that excessive heat does not evolve right away. Much of the Midwest will dry down overall during the next two weeks with the lower Midwest drying down starting this weekend leaving many areas in need timely rain soon to ensure production potentials do not decline.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $11.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $11.58 1/4 and then at $11.70. First support is seen at $11.40 and then at today’s low of $11.30.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $312.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $295.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $304.40 and then at $307.70. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at this week’s low of $298.80.
Bean oil sees prices now trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 73.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 68.84 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.59 cents and then at the June low of 65.90 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 5 1/2 cents to $6.18 1/4, near the daily high. December HRW gained 5 cents to $6.45 3/4, near the daily high and hit a nine-week low early on. September spring wheat futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $6.15.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering today, with buying interest also spurred by rallies in the corn and soybean markets. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also worked in favor of the wheat market bulls, as did firmer crude oil prices.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 504,500 MT during the week ended June 18. Net sales were near the upper-end of analysts’ pre-report range of 250,000 to 600,000 MT.
The International Grains Council increased its forecast for 2026-27 global wheat production by 1 MMT to 821 MMT amid improved crop prospects in Russia.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, weather pattern changes are likely that will bring an end to frequent rainfall. The precipitation will be favorable in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and northeastern Colorado through Saturday. After that a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to evolve that will suppress rainfall and induce some very warm to hot temperatures that will stress livestock and unirrigated summer crops. Winter wheat maturation and harvesting will benefit greatly from the drier and hotter weather. In the Northern Plains, periodic rainfall and warmer temperatures will dominate the region over the next week. The environment will be good for most crops especially in Montana and western North Dakota where sufficient rain should fall to improve soil moisture and crop conditions. South Dakota, however, will do poorly with rainfall along with some counties in Minnesota and that may lead to increasing concern over dryness and rising crop stress in unirrigated fields. Warming is expected to stimulate faster crop development rates, though it will also accelerate drying and this is of greatest interest in South Dakota and Minnesota.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.42. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.98 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.20 and then at $6.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.07 and then at $6.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.78 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $6.47 and then at this week’s high of $6.69 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.34 1/4 and then at $6.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 71 points to 76.97 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a corrective bounce today. A weaker U.S. dollar index today and firmer WTI crude oil prices also supported the cotton bulls.
USDA this morning reported U.S. cotton export sales totaling 83,900 RB for 2025/2026 that were down 53 percent from the previous week and down 54 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (31,300 RB), India (14,300 RB) and Bangladesh (14,200 RB). Net sales of 67,100 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for China (13,500 RB), Guatemala (12,800 RB) and Vietnam (10,600 RB). Exports of 300,200 RB were up 20 percent from the previous week and up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (102,800 RB), Pakistan (48,600 RB) and Bangladesh (25,900 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas still needs significant moisture especially in the dryland areas of the southwest, but only a limited amount of rain is expected for a while. Cotton conditions in most other U.S. production areas are rated fair to very good and recent rain should have improved crops considerably in the drier areas of the southeastern states. Crop weather in the Delta is improving and conditions in the southeastern states are quite varied with most of the cotton doing alright.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 80.47 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at 78.00 cents and then at 79.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 76.09 cents and then at 75.17 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.