Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 1/2 cent to $4.21 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market is presently struggling amid ramped up harvest pressure and the related commercial hedge selling. Some technical selling was also featured today as the near-term chart posture for December corn has deteriorated a bit. Solid losses in the crude oil market today were a bearish outside-market element for the corn market.
Bulls got little traction today after USDA reported daily sales of 135,660 MT of U.S. corn to Mexico and 110,668 MT to unknown destinations during 2025-26. USDA also reported export inspections of 1.53 MMT during the week ended Sept. 25, up 141,179 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the pre-report range of 1.1 to 1.6 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said warm and mostly dry weather occurred in the Midwest during the weekend, allowing for rapid crop maturation rates and good harvest progress. Warm and mostly dry weather will continue over much of the Midwest through Saturday. A period of wetter weather occurs Sunday into Friday of next week. Early indications suggest drier weather will resume Oct. 11-13 and harvesting should quickly accelerate.
USDA’s weekly crop progress report this afternoon is expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 65% good to excellent condition, down a point from last week. U.S. corn harvest is seen at 20% complete as of Sunday.
Traders are awaiting Tuesday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks report, which has a history of producing surprises. A Reuters survey of grain analysts shows the average estimate for September 1 U.S. corn stocks, at 1.337 billion bushels, would be a four-year low and down 24% from a year earlier. However, the analysts collective estimate is above the 1.325 billion bushels USDA projected for 2024/25 corn ending stocks in its September 12 monthly supply and demand report.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have lost their slight near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has rolled over. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.14. First resistance is seen at $4.25 and then at $4.28 1/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.18 1/4 and then at $4.14.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 3 1/4 cents to $10.10 1/2, nearer the daily low. December soybean meal rose 80 cents to $275.40, near the daily low. December soybean oil fell 50 points to 49.69 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean bulls pulled in their horns to start the trading week, amid good harvest weather in the Midwest that has combines rolling and elevators busy—resulting in commercial hedge pressure. Solid losses in the crude oil market today were a bearish outside-market element for the soybean market.
World Weather Inc. today said warm and mostly dry weather occurred in the Midwest during the weekend, “allowing for rapid crop maturation rates and good harvest progress.” Warm and mostly dry weather will continue over much of the Midwest through Saturday “and crop maturation rates will be higher than usual, while aggressive harvesting occurs before a period of wetter weather occurs Sunday into Friday of next week.” The period of wetter weather Sunday into next week should not bring heavy rain to many locations and mostly temporary interruptions to fieldwork are likely to result while the moisture will benefit winter crop areas. Early indications suggest drier weather will resume Oct. 11-13 and harvesting should quickly accelerate. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal to unseasonably warm into Friday before this weekend is a little cooler. There is no risk of frost or freezes through this weekend with some frost possible in the northwest during the early to middle to part of next week, said the forecaster.
USDA this morning reported U.S. soybean export inspections of 593,956 MT for the week ended Sept. 25, up 28,326 MT from the previous week and within the expected pre-report range of 450,000 to 900,000 MT.
AgRural reported Brazil’s soybean planting reached 3.2% complete as of last Thursday. Some wetter weather in the forecast may slow soybean planting progress in Brazil.
USDA’s weekly crop progress report this afternoon is expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 60% good to excellent condition, down a point from last week. U.S. soybean harvest is seen at 19% complete as of Sunday.
Traders are awaiting Tuesday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks report, which has a history of producing surprises. The report is expected to show U.S. soybeans stocks of 323 million bushels, according to a Reuters survey of analysts. That would be down 5.6% from the prior year and below the 330 million bushels that the USDA projected as 2024/25 soybean ending stocks in its September 12 monthly supply and demand report.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the September high of $10.52 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at $10.20 1/4 and then at last week’s high of $10.25. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.05 and then at $10.00.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $285.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $277.80 and then at $280.00. First support is seen at $272.60 and then at $270.00.
Bean oil bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 50.77 cents and then at 51.34 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 48.89 cents and then at 48.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 1/4 cent to $5.19 1/2, near mid-range. December HRW gained 2 3/4 cents to $5.08 1/4, nearer the daily high. December spring wheat futures rose a penny 1/2 to $5.69 1/4
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw mild short covering today. The bulls still cannot put together a winning streak that would begin to suggest market bottoms are in place. Solid losses in the crude oil market today were a bearish outside-market element for the wheat markets.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 738,604 MT for the week ended Sept. 25, down 201,199 Mt from the previous week but near the upper end of analysts’ pre-report range of 500,000 to 800,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and most of the Midwest soft wheat region will trend drier this week, supporting planting and many areas have sufficient moisture for emergence and establishment. It is still early in the planting season and plenty of time for timely rain to return. Canada’s Prairies will experience good drying conditions that will support quick harvest progress over the next seven days. Rain is needed for some of the winter crop. Russia’s spring wheat harvest is advancing well, while some winter wheat areas experience ongoing dryness. Rain likely in central and western Ukraine this week will be ideal in bolstering soil moisture for seed germination and plant emergence. Dryness will continue to be a concern for unirrigated winter cereal areas of eastern Ukraine and portions of Russia’s southern region, said the forecaster.
USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report is out Tuesday. For U.S. wheat stocks, a Reuters survey of analysts shows the average estimate of 2.043 billion bushels would be up 2.6% from 1.992 billion a year ago, and would represent the largest September 1 wheat stocks figure since 2020. USDA’s final estimate for the 2024-25 wheat crop is also set for release Tuesday.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report is expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop at 35% planted as of Sunday, compared to 20% last week at the same time.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.27 3/4 and then at $5.35 3/4. First support is seen at $5.15 and then the contract low of $5.07 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.80. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.15 1/4 and then at $5.24. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.02 3/4 and then at the contract low of $4.97 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 90 points to 65.50 cents, near the daily low and hit a six-month low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market saw technical selling featured today. Weaker grain futures prices today were also negative for cotton, as were solid losses in the crude oil futures market today.
Possibly adding selling pressure to cotton futures are reports coming out of southern Texas that cotton stockpiles are bulging. “Cotton gins are jammed with unsold bales as farmers face a stalled market.” At the Edcot Co-op Gin, thousands of bales are stacked up, operator Daniel Luehrs said, according to a TV news report that came from south Texas.
World Weather Inc. today said the forecast track for Tropical Storm Imelda was significantly shifted to the southeast during the weekend, greatly reducing concerns over flooding rain and quality declines or damage to cotton in the Carolinas and southern Virginia. Additional rain is still expected from eastern Georgia into the Carolinas and southern Virginia into Tuesday and fieldwork will be interrupted while some cotton discoloration likely occurs with the moisture beneficial where winter crops are produced. Areas to the west into the Delta will remain mostly dry and will see rapid crop maturation rates and good harvest progress. Little additional rain is expected during the remainder of the next two weeks in the Delta and the Southeast and some discolored cotton should be bleached white while harvesting advances quickly, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 66.42 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the August low of 60.85 cents. First resistance is seen at 64.00 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at 63.00 cents and then at 62.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.