Corn
Price action: July corn closed 1 1/2 cents lower to $4.90 1/4 and settled nearer session lows. That marked a 8 cent loss on the week.
5-day outlook: Corn futures traded within Tuesday’s session for the second consecutive day as prices continue to consolidate on the daily bar chart. A break higher or lower ahead of the long weekend was unlikely and sideways trade was expected and even helpful for the market as conditions neared overbought last week. The near-term technical outlook points to continued strength over the course of the next week. As we reported earlier this week, many countries are looking to make trade deals with the U.S. and discussions with Japan were fruitful earlier this week. The risk in terms of tariffs has quickly shifted to the upside rather than the downside. Key will ultimately be on how prices react on a headline, as recent bullish trade could point to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.
30-day outlook: Planting is kicking off across the Midwest with slow progress made in Corn Belt states over the past couple of weeks. While these early delays are not all that concerning, the forecast points to continued delays, particularly in the Ohio, Tennessee and Mississippi river basins, which have seen heavy rainfall leading to saturated conditions. While some dryness is expected in the wettest areas, allowing planting in well drained areas, rainfall is expected to work back through the Midwest in the second week of the outlook, which could further delay plantings.
90-day outlook: Trade continues to be on the forefront of traders minds. Recent volatile trade policies have led to a significant reduction in open interest in corn futures, evidence of traders and institutions reducing their risk in the volatile environment. Today’s export sales report showcased some signs of life in the export market as USDA reported export sales of 1.562 MT for 2024-25, which were nearly double a week ago and up 39% from the four-week average. Sales came in the upper end of pre-report expectations ranging from 600,000 MT to 1.8 MMT. If more trade deals are made in the coming quarter, ag purchases could be on the forefront, while if Trump once again puts restrictive measures in place, it could quickly erode some of the recent strength.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 2 1/4 cents to $10.36 1/2, finishing the week down 6 1/4 cents. May soymeal fell $1.10 to $295.60, closing $4.00 lower on the week, while soyoil rose 39 points, marking a 52-point week-over-week gain.
5-day outlook: Soybeans continued to face technical challenges at the 200-day moving average, with overbought conditions also pursing momentum. However, thus far seller interest has been limited in the wake of recent gains, as solid technical support props up prices. The general marketplace has held a more positive tone as trade rhetoric has been more subdued, despite both the U.S. and China holding steadfastly in their pursuits. As uncertainty looms, traders will require confirmation of demand in the way of a trade deal and/or a biofuels mandate to pique buying interest from current levels.
With tomorrow comes the Good Friday holiday, and a market pause. Any weekend developments could spur a hefty reaction in Sunday evening trade.
30-day outlook: U.S. weather will be the main focus over the next month as U.S. producers advance through the spring planting season. Heavy rains and flooding have delayed planting efforts in the Ohio and Tennessee river basins, with forecasted rains around April 25-28 likely exacerbating those conditions. World Weather Inc. notes heavy rain during the period could extend planting delays deep into early May in portions of the central and southern Midwest, though the moisture will be beneficial for the southwestern Corn Belt as it will restore some of the soil moisture recently lost to evaporation. Delayed corn plantings may have some producers pondering heavier soybean acres and/or prevent plant.
90-day outlook: Demand has become increasingly uncertain as trade tensions have heated up with top importer, China. However, USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report, released earlier today, showed some promise as net soybean sales for the week ended April 10, were more than triple the previous week. This is especially noteworthy as the current period reflects a seasonal lull as importing countries look to fresh Brazilian supplies. Nonetheless, other demand unknowns continue to hold an undertone in the marketplace, with traders closely watching export interest for the coming marketing-year, as well as crush data as the marketplace anxiously awaits an updated biofuels mandate.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat futures rose 1 1/4 cents to $5.62 1/4, nearer the daily low and on the week down 8 cents. July HRW wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $5.70, near the daily low and for the week down 13 1/4 cents. July spring wheat futures closed 2 1/4 cents higher to $6.19 1/4, a weekly loss of 9 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Wheat traders will closely examine Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA wheat crop progress reports. This week, USDA reported HRW conditions declined but SRW conditions improved overall, although remain well below year-ago levels.
Traders are also monitoring weather conditions in major wheat regions. World Weather Inc. today said the best chances for rainfall in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas are expected from mid-week next week through the end of April. “Rain will impact most of the region at one time or another, although a general soaking is not likely in the west. Some crop improvement is anticipated but there will be an ongoing need for more rain.” U.S. soft wheat areas in the Midwest will get greater rain Friday into the weekend with frequent follow-up moisture in the following week. Meantime, winter crops in much of Europe are greening up and beginning more aggressive growth while spring cereals are being put into the ground. “Moisture conditions are good today, although flooding may evolve in northern Italy late this week and next week.” Former Soviet Union weather will be dry and warmer over the next ten days. The environment will be good for spring planting, but there will be need for more moisture in the Black Sea region within a week to ten days to maintain favorable crop conditions, said World Weather.
30-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets have shown technical signs of price-bottoming action recently but will likely need the help of rallying corn and soybean futures markets to sustain their own price uptrends. With U.S. corn and soybean crops going into the ground in the coming weeks, the potential for weather-market rallies becomes greater. More years than not during the planting and growing seasons, at least one weather-market scare in corn and soybeans occurs. Such would present pricing opportunities for producers.
90-day outlook: USDA today reported U.S. wheat export sales of 76,500 MT for 2024-25 in the week ended April 10, down 29% from the previous week but up 2% from the four-week average. Sales were in the middle of market expectations. The U.S. dollar index is hovering near a three-year low, which should help to make U.S. wheat more price-competitive on the world trade market. Another positive outside-market development for wheat this week and moving forward has been the strong rebound in crude oil prices, which have rallied around $10 a barrel from the early-April low. Crude oil is the leader of the raw commodity sector and its recent rebound gives commodity market speculators more confidence to play the long side, including in the grains.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton rose 52 points to 66.31, and marked a weekly gain of 42 points.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures extended gains for a third straight session, gaining an increased technical posture by securing a close above the 20- and 40-day moving averages. Today’s gains were especially compelling given Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, which noted concerns of lingering inflation and slower economic growth, which would likely hinder demand for discretionary goods, many of which are manufactured using cotton. However, several countries, most recently Pakistan, have shown interest in increased U.S. cotton purchases in order to eliminate U.S. tariffs.
Any developments over the long weekend, as the marketplace observes the Good Friday holiday, tomorrow, could make for a volatile open Sunday evening.
30-day outlook: While strength this week could be a function of heightened demand prospects, short-covering interest is likely firming amid increasing weather unknowns as the calendar notes planters should be rolling. However, mother nature may have other plans as recent flooding in the lower Midwest is likely to be exacerbated by additional rains over the next several days. World Weather Inc. reports rain is expected to impact the U.S. Delta region this weekend and into early next week, with additional rainfall anticipated April 24-30. Meanwhile, progress in South Texas and the Coastal Bend should progress over the next ten days amid dry conditions, while West Texas will enjoy rain this weekend and again late next week. The southeastern states will also be dry biased for the coming week, increasing the need for timely rain.
90-day outlook: USDA reported net upland cotton sales during the week ended April 10, rose 76% from the previous week and 88% from the four-week average. Traders will continue to monitor weekly sales data for evidence of increased purchases as the marketing-year advances. A downtrodden U.S. dollar could be given some credit as it makes U.S. commodities more competitive in the global marketplace, though increased purchases from counties looking to skirt U.S. tariffs could be partially is also a possibility. Look for traders to continue to monitor further developments on a trade deals as President Trump’s 90-day pause erodes.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.