Corn
Price action: May corn rose 4 1/4 cents to $4.64 1/2, which was a two-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures were saddled by technical resistance, a firmer U.S. dollar and general uncertainty across the broader marketplace as trade tensions intensified to begin the week. Corn futures edged to a more than two-week early on, though resistance at the 100-day moving average prompted corrective selling. Moreover, President Trump’s announcement of additional 50% tariffs on Chinese products, if the country fails to remove the recent 34% increase, also led to a greater risk-off tone and increased volatility.
U.S. producers will face fieldwork delays in the wake of widespread flooding from the Ohio River basin through portions of the Tennessee River Basin and into the lower Mississippi River Basin. Many planted crops throughout the area will need replanting, with rain totals of 8 to 15 inches falling from the northern Delta to Kentucky, though drying is expected to occur throughout the area over the next ten days. However, World Weather Inc. notes another weather disturbance will occur in Michigan, southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, northern Indiana and Ohio Wednesday into Thursday
USDA reported weekly export inspection data for the week ended April 4, with net corn inspections totaling 1.58 MMT (62.3 million bu.). Inspections were down 64,079 MT from the previous week but near the upper end of the pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.6 MMT.
Technical analysis: May corn futures ended the session well above the 20-day moving average of $4.60 1/4, while the 100-day moving average of $4.68 3/4 served up resistance throughout the session. Bulls continue to look towards securing a close above the recent high of $4.77 1/2, though resistance at the 100- and 40-day moving averages could prove a difficult task. Meanwhile, bears will continue to work towards holding a close below the March low of $4.42, though the 20- and 200-day moving averages will likely continue to serve up solid support.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans climbed 6 cents to $9.83 and closed near mid-range. May meal rallied $5.30 to $288.40 and near session highs. May bean oil slid 69 points to 45.15 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures posted modest gains today, led higher by the meal market today as trade remains volatile given the trade outlook. Soybeans marked a fresh for-the-move low overnight but saw some corrective strength today on strong volume. Until the tariff dust settles, it will be difficult to discern price action and what it might mean for markets going forward. One has to look at what is going behind the scenes and the underlying fundamentals. Of course, exports are a big part of that and are highly up to question. Weekly export sales reports and export inspections continue to point to persistent export demand in spite of recent tariff announcements. USDA reported soybean export inspections of 804,270 MT (29.6 million bu.) during the week ended April 4, down 8,799 MT from the previous week but near the upper end of pre-report expectations from 300,000 to 850,000 MT.
Exports in Brazil have been picking up steadily in the past few weeks. Monthly exports from Brazil typically peak in April or May. Recent tariffs have built on an already busy shipping season in Brazil, building premiums in Brazilian prices as importers look to avoid U.S. goods.
Technical analysis: May soybeans saw corrective gains today after marking a 3.5 month low in early trading. Resistance at the March low of $9.91 limited gains today and will stand as initial resistance. Strength above that mark looks to overcome the psychological $10.00 mark then the 10-day moving average at $10.05 1/2. Resurgent weakness looks to challenge support at the psychological $9.75 mark then the Dec. 18 close at $9.61 1/2.
May meal futures rebounded after sharp selling and a contract low on Friday. Bears retain the technical advantage as prices continue to grind lower on the daily bar chart. Bulls are looking to overcome the 10-day moving average at $290.60 on continued strength, which is reinforced by resistance at $294.20. Support stands at $185.00 then the contract low of $282.10 on a reversal back lower.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat rose 7 1/2 cents to $5.36 1/2, near mid-range. May HRW wheat gained 1 3/4 cents to $5.59 1/4, nearer the daily low. May spring wheat futures climbed 9 1/2 cents to $5.94.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets shrugged off keen risk aversion in the general marketplace today and focused more on the extreme weather patterns in U.S. wheat country that threaten to nip production potential. Wheat bulls also pushed aside a firmer U.S. dollar index today and a slumping crude oil market that today hit a four-year low.
World Weather Inc. today said freezing temperatures Sunday and again this morning “induced some vegetative damage to winter wheat across the central Plains.
Temperatures were not cold enough for a long enough period of time for jointed wheat, with the possible exception of west-central Kansas Sunday, when lows were in the middle and upper teens”. Assessing the damage will not be possible until the harvest, but this freeze event along with those of January and February and the ongoing drought as well as recent excessive wind and blowing dust “cannot possibly have the wheat crop in very good condition.” Frequent rain and mild to cool weather must evolve immediately and linger for a few weeks to induce an environment conducive for setting new tillers and inducing better root and leaf development, said World Weather.
USDA reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 334,888 MT for the week ended April 4, down 166,621 MT from the previous week but within pre-report expectations.
Wheat traders are looking forward to the first USDA NASS weekly crop progress reports of the season this afternoon. Traders are looking for the U.S. winter wheat crop to be in 47% good to excellent condition, according to a Bloomberg survey. U.S. spring wheat is seen at 2% planted.
Technical analysis: SRW bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.46 1/2 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.25 3/4 and then at the contract low of $5.17 1/2.
Bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.41 1/2. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.74 and then at $5.80. First support is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.41 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton rallied 263 points to 65.99 cents, closing near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures faced strong corrective buying to start the week, despite general risk-off sentiments across the marketplace as trade tensions continue to heat up. Today’s move was especially profound, given a firmer U.S. dollar, extended selling in crude oil futures and immense volatility and selling in equities. However, solid technical resistance does linger overhead and will likely limit extended short-covering efforts. Meanwhile, many market participants are fearing a recession is imminent in the wake of the recent stock market selloff while President Trump announced additional 50% tariffs on Chinese products if the country fails to remove the 34% retaliatory tariff, which was revealed late last week.
Weather in the U.S. remains mixed for planting, with west and south Texas facing dryness over the next ten days to two weeks, with West Texas most in need of rain since south Texas received rain recently. Meanwhile, the U.S. Delta received excessive rain over the past few days, saturating field conditions and delaying fieldwork. The forecaster notes some flooding will prevail over the next week to ten days despite a lack of additional moisture.
Technical analysis: May cotton futures closed near the session high, though resistance at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages of 66.19 cents, 66.27 cents and 66.53 curbed momentum. Bulls will need to overcome the area, as well as resistance at the 100-day moving average of 68.56 cents, while bears will breach last week’s low of 60.80 cents. A move below the area will face additional support at 61.22 cents, 59.08 cents and 57.36 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.