Corn
Price action: July corn fell 7 cents to $4.17 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit another contract low. For the week, July corn was down 29 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The stunning price downdraft in the corn futures market continues, with today’s contract low and technically bearish weekly low close suggesting follow-through, chart-based selling early next week. The rally in the U.S. dollar index was an outside-market negative for corn today. Relative Strength Index (RSI) technical indicator readings for corn are presently at oversold levels which coincide with near-term market bottoms being put in place over the past 12 months. A high-range daily close in a trading session would be one early clue of seller exhaustion in corn futures. July corn has gone 13 trading sessions in a row without having daily close be close to the session high. The only day that came close was May 28, which saw July corn close just above mid-range. Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Next week’s reports will likely show most of the U.S. corn crop in good condition for this time of year.
30-day outlook: Weather in the Corn Belt leans price-bearish. Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through June 13, with breaks between rounds of rain likely to allow for planting to be completed in much of the region. Most eastern areas will see dry weather and favorable conditions for fieldwork Sunday into Tuesday. A close watch will be made on rain advertised from eastern Iowa into central and northern Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan as well as from eastern North Dakota into Minnesota where the topsoil has recently firmed up. Soil moisture in place in much of the Midwest and rain advertised during the next two weeks should favorably support crop development and maintain very high production potential deep into the month if drier weather June 14-19 were to continue into late this month. Gradual warming will occur into early next week and some northwestern areas will warm to the middle 90s into early next week with some upper 90s and a few lower 100s in and near eastern South Dakota Wednesday and Thursday and some upper 90s in and near east-central and southeastern Iowa Thursday.
The late-June USDA planted acreage updates are starting to draw trader attention and speculation on what the agency will report. There are growing notions U.S. planted corn acres won’t be reduced much.
90-day outlook: While Corn Belt growing weather looks good at present, the hottest and generally driest part of the summer growing season lies ahead. As the late long-time grain market watcher Conrad Leslie once said, “Come July, traders and producers will have their eyes to the sky.” Early July finds most of the U.S. corn crop in its most critical pollination growth stage. Don’t be surprised to see some degree of a weather-market scare pop up rapidly in corn in the coming couple months. More years than not, one occurs.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 8 cents to $11.21 1/2, nearer the daily low, hit a four-month low and for the week were down 65 1/4 cents. July soybean meal lost $5.20 to $308.50, near the daily low, hit a nearly four-month low and for the week down $20.70. July bean oil fell 217 points to 74.12 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week down 360 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean complex futures markets have been caught in a price downdraft from weak long liquidation from the retail speculators and big fund players. New speculator short-selling has also entered the soy complex markets this week, especially in beans and meal. The bearish technical postures in beans and meal, and the technically bearish weekly low closes in all three markets, set the stage for more chart-based selling pressure early next week. The rally in the U.S. dollar index was an outside-market negative for the soy complex today.
USDA this morning reported daily sales of 190,000 MT of U.S. soybean meal during the 2025-26 marketing year.
Monday’s weekly USDA crop progress data will be closely scrutinized by soybean complex traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said portions of northern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin, northwestern Indiana, southeastern Iowa and southwestern Michigan need moisture and should get it this weekend and especially next week. Recent rain in southeastern South Dakota, Nebraska and neighboring states has brought some relief from dryness; though more rain is needed. Key Midwestern crop areas should see a moisture boost next week. Late-season planting in the United States is advancing well around periods of rainfall. A favorable mix of weather is expected to prevail through next week supporting fieldwork of all kinds and crop development.
The late-June USDA planted acreage updates will be a major focal point of the month for soy complex traders.
90-day outlook: Global biofuel demand is likely to offer prolonged support for bean oil. Meanwhile, uncertainty around U.S. and global production remains. Elevated food prices worldwide and heightened inflation worries should work to keep a floor under soybean complex futures prices in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.80, nearer the daily low and hit a seven-week low. For the week, July SRW was down 30 1/2 cents. July HRW wheat rose 1/2 cent to $6.20 3/4, nearer the daily high, hit a seven-week low and for the week down 29 cents. September spring wheat fell a penny to $6.46 1/4 and marked a 42-cent weekly loss.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets see continued technical selling featured. The technically bearish weekly low closes today in July SRW and HRW set the stage for still more chart-based selling early next week. The rally in the U.S. dollar index was an outside-market negative for wheat today.
The condition of major cereal crops in France worsened last week during a record-breaking heatwave in the European Union’s largest grain producer, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday.
Ukraine’s deputy minister, Taras Vysotskiy said the ministry expected the 2026 grain harvest could total 60 million metric tons, almost the same as in 2025. Ukraine is a major European exporter of grain and oilseeds, with corn and wheat dominating the planted area.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in the next seven days to support summer crop development. The rain is likely too late for some of the unirrigated winter wheat in the southern Plains. However, rainfall will still be beneficial for the central Plains. Temperatures will trend a little hot next week with several days of moderately strong wind. Cooling is likely June 13-18 with some increase in rainfall to benefit summer crops. In the Northern Plains, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be beneficial in maintaining soil conditions and supporting crops in much of the crop region. Excessive heat expected at some point in the coming week, with highs nearing 100 degrees, may cause some livestock stress but no major impacts are expected.
90-day outlook: Winter wheat harvesting has yet to commence in earnest across the Midwest, though recent price action is likely to curb seller interest, pushing producers toward storage. Winter wheat conditions continue to falter, though more will be known about the crop as harvest advances. Global supplies and trade uncertainties have also inspired sellers of late. Forecasts for reduced U.S. spring wheat acreage should provide underlying support for HRS, which could drive greater volatility should a weather scare pop up during the growing season.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 114 points to 73.75 cents, near the session low, hit a nearly two-month low and for the week down 212 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market again today was caught in the downdraft in grain futures prices. Today’s technically bearish weekly low close in July cotton sets the market up for more chart-based selling pressure early next week. The cotton futures market sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see additional showers and thunderstorms into Saturday, before Sunday into June 19 will be dry most often with a few showers on occasion that should not have much of an impact on soil moisture. West Texas into the eastern Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma will receive up to 0.75” of rain and locally more today into Saturday, with another round of showers in a large part of the region possible June 12-13. Recent and additional rain into Saturday will leave much of the region with at least temporary improvements in soil moisture and conditions for dryland germination, establishment, and development of cotton and planting should increase when drier weather returns Sunday into June 19. Outside of some pockets where rain is greater, increases in soil moisture are not likely to last into late this month and dryland areas will need follow-up rain soon. The Blacklands, south Texas and the Coastal Bend will see regular rounds of rain during the next two weeks slowing fieldwork while maintaining favorable soil moisture.
90-day outlook: Today’s strong monthly U.S. jobs report for May was a mixed bag for the cotton futures market. The strong data should support good consumer confidence about the economy, which may translate into better demand for apparel in the coming months. However, the jobs report also put a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year squarely on the table. Higher interest rates are never a positive for consumer confidence. Still, we believe that a more robust U.S. economy is a positive for the cotton futures market, from a consumer demand perspective.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.