Corn
Price action: December corn rose 8 1/4 cents to $5.46, near the daily high and hit another contract and three-year high overnight.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market bulls hit the accelerator again today. The charts remain firmly bullish and the fundamental picture is also price-friendly. However, the market is now short-term technically overbought and due for a significant downside price correction soon.
USDA rated the U.S. corn crop as 57% good to excellent as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week. On the Pro Farm Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the Crop Condition Index saw a 1.6-point decline on the week and sits 25.86 points behind year-ago.Our crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, in his weekly report has lowered his 2026 U.S. corn yield by 1.0 bushel this week, to 178.0 bu/ac, with a neutral-to-lower bias.
World Weather Inc. today said warming and limited rain in the Midwest benefit a few of the wetter areas. There is some potential for heat stress to cut into yields, although the lateness of the season and lingering subsoil moisture will help limit losses. Meantime, Western Europe rain was welcome late last week but not much occurred during the weekend and a return to drier biased weather is likely this week which may leave the soil too dry for late summer crops. Mexico’s monsoon is expected to bring some beneficial moisture to corn and sorghum production in the west, but below normal rainfall is likely in the east. Late-season Safrinha corn harvesting in Brazil should advance well over the next week to 10 days.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $5.47 1/4 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at $5.40 and then at this week’s low of $5.31 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 29 3/4 cents to $13.17 3/4, near the daily high and hit another contract high and 2.5-year high. December soybean meal gained $7.30 to $352.60, near the daily high and hit a two-year high. December soybean oil rose 151 points to 72.63 cents, near the daily high and hit a five-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market bulls hit the gas today on fresh U.S. bean sales to China and amid bullish charts. Soybean traders also gave a price-friendly read to Monday’s EPA announcement on small refinery waivers. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 136,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year. The agency rated the U.S. soybean crop as 58% good to excellent as of Sunday, down two percentage points from the previous week. That was the fourth straight weekly decline. On our CCI, the crop declined 1.44 points to 357.55, which is 9.61 points behind year ago at this time. Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his 2026 U.S. soybean yield estimate this week at 51.5 bu/ac, with a neutral bias going forward. Traders were awaiting this afternoon’s USDA monthly fats and oils report.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur in the northern Midwest through the next two weeks and the drier aeras in the northwest will benefit from the rain.Some soybeans in the northwestern Corn Belt will see small increases in yields after the coming rain, with the precipitation too late for a major boost in production. The southern Midwest will be dry most often through the next 10 days, with warm to hot temperatures from the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt into late next week favoring crop maturation and early harvesting, with subsoil moisture adequate to support late crop development. Southwestern and south-central areas will be hottest and yields may decline as crops are rushed to maturity.
Technical analysis: November soybeans are now sell overbought on a short-term technical basis and due for a corrective pullback soon. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $13.20 and then at $13.35. First support is seen at $13.00 and then at this week’s low of $12.77 1/4.
Soybean meal sees a solid price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $365.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $325.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $352.90 and then at $354.00. First support is seen at $346.00 and then at today’s low of $342.50.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at the July high of 73.82 cents and then at 74.55 cents. First support is seen at 71.38 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 8 1/2 cents to $7.82 1/2, nearer the daily high and hit a contract and three-year high. December HRW gained 7 1/4 cents to $8.45 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a contract and three-year high. December spring wheat futures rose 13 3/4 cents to $7.67 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets saw more buying interest amid Black Sea supply constraints as Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other’s export infrastructure. A fire at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga has been extinguished, after the latest attack in Ukraine’s intensifying campaign against Russian energy infrastructure, Bloomberg said in a report. Technical buying was also featured today as the charts remain bullish.
USDA Monday afternoon reported 77% of the U.S. spring wheat crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 62% a week earlier and ahead of the five-year average for this time of year of 68%. Analysts had expected the harvest to be 75% complete.
World weather today said good harvest weather has been occurring in the northern U.S. Plains and Pacific Northwest. Most other U.S. harvesting is complete. Planting of 2027 wheat in the southwestern U.S. Plains should begin soon, but rain and cooler temperatures must fall first before planting begins even in some of the irrigated fields. Meantime, some dryness relief recently impacted a part of both Canada’s late spring wheat and barley crop areas as well as in a few northern U.S. Plains locations. The rain has not estored soil moisture to normal. It is too late in the season for rain to change production potentials or grain quality. Crop maturation and harvesting will advance around showers this week. Spring wheat maturation and harvesting is advancing across Russia. Weekend frost and light freezes had no negative impact on crop conditions. Dry weather is needed to support harvesting and protect grain quality. Australia’s wheat and barley are well established except in Queensland. Seasonal cooling has pushed some southern crops into semi-dormancy and any new moisture will be of use during the spring. Spring drought and excessive heat in eastern Australia are expected to present a threat to crops in Queensland and northeastern New South Wales.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends are still firmly in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.85. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $7.92 1/4 and t
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $9.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $8.56 3/4 and then at $8.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $8.31 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $8.16 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 159 points to 91.55 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw routine profit-taking pressure today. Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop in 32% poor to very poor condition, 29% fair and 58% in good to excellent condition, as of Sunday. The crop was at 29% bolls opening, and 89% setting pods.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see net increases in crop stress and declines in yields through the next 10 days to two weeks as hot temperatures will continue through at least the next week and rain will be too light and infrequent to induce more than brief improvements in crop and soil conditions. Cotton that received significant rain last week will be able to use that moisture for a while with stress to the crop likely to soon increase as the soil dries out again. Stress to crops will be eased when some cooling occurs late next week into the following weekend with some showers possible Sep. 10-14. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through most of the next two weeks and stress to developing cotton will steadily increase as the soil dries out while cotton maturation and harvesting occurs in a mostly favorable environment. An exception will occur into Wednesday when Tropical Storm Edouard brings 0.40-1.60” of rain and locally more to parts of the northern Coastal Bend with the storm’s winds in cotton areas not likely great enough to cause a serious threat to the crop. The remnants of Edouard will bring showers to the Blacklands Thursday into Friday.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 95.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 87.05 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 93.74 cents and then at 94.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 90.60 cents and then at 88.88 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.