Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1 1/4 cents to $4.60 1/2, nearer the daily low and closed at a four-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw selling pressure amid general risk-off trading heading into USDA’s supply and demand report due out Wednesday morning. Some technical selling was also featured as futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Weather in the Corn Belt also leans price-bearish.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 61% good to excellent as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index, (CCI; 0-500-point scale, with 500 being perfect) the crop declined 2.28 points to 358.39, which lags year ago by 24.52 points during the same period.
World Weather Inc. today said milder temperatures and some periodic showers and thunderstorms in the all of the Midwest in the coming 10 days will be welcome. Crop stress in the northwestern Corn Belt may be reduced if the forecast for later this week and next week is correct, suggesting more rain. Europe crops will also continue stressed this week, with low soil moisture in many areas, but nowhere more serious than in central and northern France and the southern United Kingdom. Warm to hot weather in western and southern Europe will add heat stress to the dryness issue in many areas from France to Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine and Greece.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $4.92. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.65 1/2 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.57 1/4 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 40% forward sold and 20% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 50% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 10 3/4 cents to $11.68 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a four-week low. September soybean meal lost $0.50 to $305.00, nearer the daily low and hit another four-week low. September soybean oil fell 96 points to 68.57 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw more technical selling pressure as prices remain in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Buyers were also hesitant ahead of Wednesday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Weather in the Midwest also leans price-bearish for the soy complex.
Bulls got no help today from USDA reporting daily sales of 136,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China and 180,000 MT soybean meal to the Philippines during the 2026-27 marketing year.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the soybean crop as 62% good to excellent as of Sunday, down one percentage point from last week. On our CCI, the soybean crop declined 0.48 point to 363.84, which is 10.5 points behind last year at this time.
World Weather Inc. today said daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the next two weeks and a lack of widespread, significant heat through at least the next week will ensure crop conditions are favorable and yield potential is high in much of the Midwest deep into the month, with some exceptions in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt. A close watch will continue on east-central and southeastern South Dakota and nearby Nebraska into northwestern Iowa as well as eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where soil moisture is marginal to short and stress to crops will increase until significant rain falls. Occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring relief from dryness to the region and yield potentials should stabilize or possibly increase overall during the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: A price downtrend is in place on the daily chart for November beans. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is to close November prices above solid resistance at the July high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.85 and then at $12.00. First support is seen at $11.60 and then at $11.50.
Soybean meal sees a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $315.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $311.00 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at $303.00 and then at $300.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at 67.50 cents and then at last week’s low of 66.51 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 35% forward sold on 2026 crop, with another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 55% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW fell 10 1/4 cents to $6.30 1/4, nearer the daily low. September HRW lost 14 1/4 cents to $6.99 1/4, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat futures fell 10 3/4 cents to $6.59 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling from the speculators and position evening ahead of Wednesday’s USDA WASDE reports.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 51% good to excellent as of Sunday, down four percentage points from the previous week. On our CCI, the crop declined 3.69 points to 340.91 and is 6.35 points behind year-ago at this time.
Russian wheat exports in August could fall to their lowest in around a decade, agricultural analysts said today, as the world’s top wheat exporter contends with low prices and security risks on vital Black Sea shipping routes. Russia’s IKAR consultancy lowered its forecast for the country’s wheat export potential in 2026-27 marketing year to 44.5 MMT, down slightly from previous expectations of 45 MMT.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, very warm to hot temperatures will dominate the southern U.S. Plains for the next two weeks. The heat and lack of rain will allow drought to prevail in many areas and expand into other areas. In the meantime, a mix of warm and humid conditions and periodic showers and thunderstorms in the central Plains will be good for summer crops. Crop stress in the southern Plains resulting from hot, dry, conditions will cut into yield especially for unirrigated crops. Wheat harvesting should continue to advance around periodic showers. In the Northern Plains, comfortable temperatures in the low 70s to mid-80s will occur by mid-week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also return to the crop region, which will overall bring much needed relief from recent hot and dry weather across the crop region in the past month.
Technical analysis: Price downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.80. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.46 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $6.59 1/2. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.26 3/4 and then at $6.15.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.21 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $7.35. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.93 3/4 and then at $6.75.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 53 points to 84.39 cents, nearer the daily high and closed at a three-month high close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures paused for most of the session amid position evening ahead of Wednesday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. However, a late buying surge lifted prices to near their daily high.A Bloomberg survey of analysts looks for U.S. cotton production to be at 13.54 million bales, with exports of 12.30 million bales and ending stocks of 3.86 million bales in the current marketing year.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop in 22% in poor to very poor condition, 38% fair and 40% in good to excellent condition as of last Sunday. The crop was 10% with bolls opening 65% setting pods and 93% squaring.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the occasional showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place while warm to hot temperatures and short soil moisture cause stress to cotton to increase.Showers will be most organized Thursday into Sunday when much of the Panhandle and western and northern parts of west Texas receive at least some rain, with most daily totals too light to have a meaningful impact on soil or crop conditions. The Blacklands, south Texas and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and stress to cotton will steadily increase as the soil dries out. In the far West, hot and dry weather and increasing stress to cotton continued in the San Joaquin Valley Monday, while rain fell on roughly half of southern Arizona where several pockets of significant rain and temporary increases in soil moisture occurred while excessive heat evaporated most of the precipitation quickly after it fell.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the May high of 88.08 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 79.20 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 84.82 cents and then at 86.00 cents. First support is seen at 83.00 cents and then at 82.51 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.