Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 5 3/4 cents to $4.571 /2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more technical selling pressure today. Sharply lower crude oil futures prices today also worked to pressure corn futures. Weather in the Midwest also leans price-bearish for corn.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.582 MMT for the week ended May 21, up 182,089 MT from the previous week. Net inspections are running 28% ahead of year-ago at this time. The agency’s weekly crop progress reports are also out this afternoon, delayed a day by the Memorial Day holiday. Corn traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show the crop 87% planted as of Sunday, versus 76% last week and 87% one year ago at the same time.
Pro Farmer Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier increased his Argentine corn production estimate by 1.0 MMT to 63 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward. He holds a neutral bias going forward for both crops. Cordonnier estimates Brazil’s 2026-27 corn production at 135 MMT, down 5 MMT from 2025-26, but he notes farmers may reduce plant populations in fear of dryness from el Nino and may reduce fertilizer applications to save money. He estimates Argentine corn production at 60 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said a further reduction in rain has been made to their two-week outlook since late last week and outside of rain into Wednesday in the south-central, southeastern, and portions of the upper Midwest, dry weather will dominate the period and planting should soon be completed in much of the region. Soil moisture in place as well as a lack of significant heat through at least the next week will allow germination, establishment, and development of summer crops to occur in a favorable environment. Soil moisture was not fully restored from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota--and by the latter part of the first week of June the region will be in need of rain to maintain favorable crop conditions. Soil moisture in most of the remainder of the Midwest is high enough to support crop development deep into June without significant rain, but rain will be needed soon to ensure soil moisture remains favorable during potential periods of hot and dry weather later in the summer. There is some potential for heat to build in the Plains late in the first week of June before expanding into the western Corn Belt and a close watch on the period will be made.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the May low of $4.55. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.63 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at $4.55 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 10 1/2 cents to $11.86, nearer the daily low. July soybean meal fell $3.30 to $328.60, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil rose 38 points to 74.36 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw some technical selling pressure. July futures prices have closed lower six of the past eight trading sessions. Lower crude oil futures prices today also lent selling pressure to beans and meal.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections of 571,620 MT for the week ended May 21, up 1,056 MT from the previous week. Net inspections are running 20.8% behind year-ago at this time.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean production estimate for 2025-26 unchanged at 49 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward.He estimates Brazilian soybean production of 180 MMT, unchanged from 2025-26. He does note a low level of confidence in the Argentine estimates because El Nino may impact planting and the worldwide fertilizer situation.
Soy complex traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show the crop 79% planted as of Sunday, versus 67% last week and 79% one year ago at the same time.
World Weather Inc. today said net drying is expected in a part of the U.S. Midwest this week and temperatures will be warmer. Most of the change will be welcome, but there are parts of northern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin, northwestern Indiana and southwestern Michigan that need a moisture boost. Weekend rain brought some relief to dryness in southeastern South Dakota and Minnesota, although more rain is needed.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.35. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $11.72 1/4. First resistance is seen at $12.00 and then at $12.12. First support is seen at $11.80 and then at $11.72 1/4.
Soybean meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the May high of $342.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.80. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $331.90 and then at $335.60. First support is seen at last week’s low of $326.20 and then at $320.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out, however. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 76.99 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 72.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 75.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 76.32 cents. First support is seen at 72.95 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 10 3/4 cents to $6.35 1/2, near the daily low. July HRW lost 5 3/4 cents to $6.76 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a nearly three-week low. September spring wheat futures rose 4 cents to $7.14 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more profit-taking and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term speculators as prices closed lower for the fourth trading session in a row.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of 368,455 MT, up 132,097 MT from the previous week. Net inspections are running 10.2% ahead of year ago at this time. U.S. spring wheat planting is expected at 86% complete as of Sunday versus 73% last week and 87% one year ago at the same time.
Ukraine has almost completed its 2026 spring grain sowing, seeding 94% of the expected area, according to the country’s economy ministry earlier today.
Wheat traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. The winter wheat crop is expected to be in 28% good to excellent condition as of Sunday versus 27% last week and 50% in the same condition one year ago at the same time.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, significant rainfall the next seven days will be good for the region. However, this may be coming a little too late for some of the unirrigated winter wheat crop. The rain will definitely be beneficial for the region’s summer crop production. There should be enough time between areas of rain for fieldwork to advance as well. In the Northern Plains, conditions in the next seven days will be mostly okay in the region, though some concern continues in the west. Temperatures in the western half of the region will be extreme for this time of year today through Thursday, which will worsen the already drier-biased soil and stress both crops and livestock. The potential for rain in this part of the region will then increase going into the upcoming weekend.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are now fading a bit. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $6.88 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at 6.31 1/2 and then at $6.25.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at $6.77 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.64 and then at $6.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 5 points to 77.37 cents, nearer the daily low and closed at a six-week low close today.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw mild technical selling and more weak long liquidation today. Lower crude oil prices limited buying interest in cotton today, but record highs in the major U.S. stock indexes limited the downside in cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see daily showers continue through Friday, slowing planting while inducing beneficial increases in soil moisture that will induce improvements in conditions for dryland cotton germination and establishment. Showers occur in parts of the region daily into Friday, when much of the region receives 0.50-2.0” and locally more during the period with a few bands of heavier rain. June 4-9 will be dry most often and likely warmer and good planting progress should be made while much of the region will need another round of timely rain soon to prevent the soil from quickly drying out again. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see a wet weather pattern through June 3 with rain in parts of the region most days during the period inducing additional increases in soil moisture that will benefit south Texas most while fieldwork is slowed.
Cotton traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart to suggest the bulls are exhausted and that a near-term market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 85.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 79.09 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at 76.50 cents and then at 76.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.