Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 6 3/4 cents to $4.27 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high. For the week, December corn rose 15 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn market bulls came back to life this week, posting a technically bullish key reversal up on Monday and finishing out the week by producing a technically bullish weekly high close on Friday. These are chart clues the market has put in at least a near-term price bottom and is likely to see follow-through buying from the speculators early next week.
While Corn Belt weather has been fully price-bearish lately, that pattern may be changing. World Weather Inc. today said much of the Midwest will see two more weeks of “favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials, with the southwestern Corn Belt driest where rain earlier this week should have bolstered soil moisture enough to prevent serious crop stress during the next two weeks.” No widespread, excessive heat is expected next week, “but some central and southern areas will regularly warm to the middle 90s starting Tuesday, with some upper 90s and a few lower 100s in southwestern and south-central areas.” The southwestern Corn Belt will see little rain Sunday through Aug. 1 “and with warm to hot temperatures this weekend through next week rapid drying of the soil will occur,” said World Weather.
30-day outlook: There has been some evidence of corn-pollination issues in areas of the Corn Belt. While the extent of the issues are unknown at present, the next few weeks will likely provide a better picture of any developing corn crop problems. The corn market bulls appear to have been given pause, after nearly optimal growing conditions the past several weeks.
90-day outlook: Trade deals other countries make with the U.S., along with export demand for U.S. corn, are front-burner topics that will come more into play in price action once a better handle on the size of the U.S. corn crop is achieved. Corn bulls were disappointed with this week’s export sales tally, following recent better global demand for U.S. corn.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans rose 6 1/4 cents to $10.27 3/4 and notched a 23 1/2-cent weekly gain. August meal rose $5.30 to $274.00 and gained $3.70 on the week after marking a contract low early in the week. August soyoil fell 40 points to 55.82 cents but scored a week-over-week gain of 207 points.
5-day outlook: Soybeans forged gains for a third straight session, with gains looking a little different at the end of the week as soyoil eased and meal futures showed solid short-covering strength. However, strong technical resistance lurks ahead and may limit momentum into next week. But extended short-covering efforts in meal futures would certainly give the complex a boost, though traders may key in on profit-taking in early trade next week barring positive weekend trade news.
30-day outlook: Weather through the end of August and early September will prove important for the soybean crop as it progresses through its most critical growth phase. The Midwest is expected to heat up next week, with oppressive heat expected in the lower U.S. Midwest and Delta this weekend and most of next week, inducing some stress to crops. World Weather Inc. notes, however, rain should resume along with some cooling in the latter days of July to maintain a good outlook for production.
90-day outlook: U.S. exports of soybeans and meal will be the longer-term focus as the Trump administration continues to work towards securing key trade deals that would ensure demand for U.S. agricultural products. As soymeal sits at multiyear lows amid abundant supplies, bargain-buying could transpire. Traders will continue to closely monitor export data and inspections to monitor sales and shipments as the new calendar year inches nearer.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat futures rose 12 3/4 cents to $5.67, near the session high and for the week up 1 1/2 cents. December HRW wheat futures gained 11 1/2 cents to $5.48 1/4 and up 3 1/4 cents on the week. December spring wheat gained 3/4 cent to $6.16 1/2, but was down 17 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: Wheat futures were generally bearish early this week due to a lack of weather concerns, although winter wheat was able to claw back those losses with strong gains in price today due to short covering and price pressure in the other major grains. Weather concerns for most of the wheat crop are minimal across the globe, with winter wheat areas in Argentina and Australia receiving adequate rainfall. Regions that face some concern for weather are some southwestern parts of Russia, which may experience some localized frost on the wheat crop, but it is expected to be minimal. The drought in the Pacific northwest is expected to continue offering little relief for that area. Currently, 36% of the U.S. spring wheat producing area is under some level of drought, according to the drought monitor.
30-day outlook: The U.S. spring wheat condition has gone back and forth since mid-June. We are currently only a couple weeks away from spring wheat harvest beginning, so keeping an eye on conditions reported between now and then will be very important. The current good or excellent condition of spring wheat is 54%, up 4% from the previous week, but still down substantially from this time last year of 77%. Despite the lack of a strong condition rating, the market seems to feel that there is still plenty of wheat to meet demand, as evidenced by the futures continuing to trade in the lower range of where they normally do. Capitalizing on spillover gains from the other major grains may be able to offer wheat some level of price support.
90-day outlook: The U.S. and Indonesia have agreed to a trade deal in principle, with details still to be released. Indonesia is the world’s large importer of wheat, meaning U.S. farmers could benefit significantly if the trade deal contains favorable terms for wheat imports to the country. Despite the dollar seeing modest gains this past week, it still remains relatively weak which is a positive for exports. This week USDA reported weekly wheat sales at 494,400 MT. While this is down from the previous week, it is still up 8% from the four-week average which shows a stronger trend long term.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 12 points to 68.68 cents and marked 126-point weekly gain.
5-day outlook: After a respectable week, cotton futures paused as technical pressure continued to stem from the late-June high, though solid technical support limited seller interest, as did support from a weaker U.S. dollar. Positive trade news could power an extension higher next week, though sideways consolidation seems likely next week without a catalyst.
30-day outlook: Weather will be particularly important over the next month as the growing season progresses through hurricane season. World Weather Inc. states southern crops would benefit from some rain, although it’s getting late for a big change in production potential. Crops in the Delta and Texas will likely dry down in the coming week as temps rise. Meantime, both the U.S. southeastern states and far western production areas have seen relatively favorable weather so far this year.
90-day outlook: Demand for U.S. cotton will be the lingering focus. The marketplace continues to wait for trade deals and details of the recent deal with Indonesia as specifics of a bilateral trade agreement remain in progress. Meanwhile, U.S. economic conditions will also play a crucial role in cotton’s price action, with robust interest rates reducing consumer spending on durable goods. Consumer Price Index data will be closely monitored, which will provide fodder to the Federal Reserve in deciding the future of Monetary Policy.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.