Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 4 1/2 cents to $4.69, nearer the session high and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market continues to impress with its resilience amid keener risk aversion in the general marketplace. That suggests underlying strength in the corn market. A weaker U.S. dollar index was somewhat supportive for corn today but was mostly offset by lower crude oil prices.
USDA this morning reported a daily U.S. corn sale of 240,000 MT to Spain during the 2024-25 marketing year.
USDA’s crop progress data out Monday afternoon showed U.S. corn was 2% planted as of April 6, which was in line with the five-year average.
Corn traders are awaiting the USDA monthly supply and demand report on Thursday, although no major changes to the corn balance sheet are expected.
World Weather Inc. today said flooding rains in the lower U.S. Midwest and Delta this week will delay corn planting for at least a couple of weeks and a few recently planted fields may need to be replanted. Meantime, rain will fall in most of Brazil corn regions, including Bahia and northern Minas Gerais at one time or another during the next ten days to two weeks. “The moisture alternating with periods of sunshine should be good for most late season crops.” Argentina weather will be well mixed over the next two weeks, maintaining a favorable production potential. Good harvest progress is likely around periods of rain, said the forecaster. South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier maintained is Brazilian and Argentine corn forecasts at 122 MMT and 46 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral/lower bias toward Brazil’s corn crop.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.77 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the March low of $4.42 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.62 3/4 and then at $4.58.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 9 3/4 cents to $9.92 3/4, marking a near mid-range close, while May meal rose $2.60 to $291.00, ending the session above the 10-day moving average. May soyoil fell 21 points to 44.94 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans extended short-covering gains, with meal and soyoil also chiming in, though technical resistance curbed an extended upside move. A greater risk-on tone hovered across the marketplace in seeming ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ fashion, despite lingering uncertainty as trade tensions escalate.
China has refused to bow to what it called “blackmail” from the U.S. in the wake of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on the country. China’s commerce ministry noted that it will “fight to the end” in response to Trump’s threat of additional 50% tariffs on all Chinese goods if Beijing does not withdraw its tit-for-tat retaliation against earlier reciprocal levies. Meanwhile, Chinese agricultural stocks rose sharply today as investors bet tariffs would limit U.S. agriculture imports and boost domestic producers.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian and Argentine estimates at 169 MMT and 48 MMT, respectively. Soybeans in Brazil were 87% harvested as of late last week, nine-percentage points ahead of the same period last year. In Argentina, wet conditions limited harvest activity, though drier conditions are expected this week. Moreover, frost may occur this week in central, western and southern Buenos Aires and in La Pampa, which could negatively impact late developing soybeans. However, Cordonnier holds a neutral bias going forward for both crops.
Technical analysis: May soybeans ultimately ended the session below the psychological $10.00 level, which was backed by the 10- and 20-day moving averages, each trading around $10.08, while support stood at $$9.81 3/4, which is backed by Monday’s low of $9.69 1/2. Bears have the near-term technical advantage and continue to look toward securing a close below $9.55 1/2, while bulls’ next objective is closing above resistance at $10.20. However, first support lies at $9.82 1/2, while initial resistance will continue to serve at $10.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW futures climbed 3 1/2 cents to $5.40. May HRW futures rose 2 1/4 to $5.61 1/2 and near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures saw modest strength today though technical headwinds continue to limit the upside. Bulls tried and failed to overcome 20-day moving average resistance for the second consecutive session. Not much is working well for the wheat bulls at this juncture as demand on the global market remains relatively abysmal. Russian wheat exports are expected to be a third of what they were a year ago despite steadily lower prices, says the experts from the analytical center of Rusagrotrans. Shipments of grain coming out of Ukraine have also significantly decreased from levels seen last year, further cementing the idea that world demand is slowing. We have reported in the past of historical importers slowing purchases this year and instead are using existing stocks. That can only go on for so long before additional purchases are required, but that uptick in demand has not shown up yet.
USDA rated the winter wheat crop as 48% “good” to “excellent” and 21% “poor” to “very poor” in the initial ratings of the spring. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop opened spring at 324.7, down 14.6 points from last fall and 20.5 points below year-ago. The SRW crop declined 13.1 points from last fall to 366.4, down 7.4 points from last year. Dry weather with unusually warm temperatures is expected to dominate HRW acres over the next week, likely weighing further on crop conditions. Excessive wind is likely to further dry soil moisture. The second week of the outlook has more rain, says World Weather Inc.
Technical analysis: May SRW futures posted modest gains as moving average resistance continues to loom over the market. Bears retain the technical advantage and are looking to hold prices below resistance at $5.44 3/4, the 20-day moving average. Strength above that mark would eye the psychological $5.50 mark. Tentative support comes in at $5.36 3/4 though resurgent selling eyes the March 28 close of $5.28 1/4.
May HRW futures rose in tandem with SRW futures today, though bears retain the technical advantage. Prices continue to consolidate in an apparent bear flag on the daily bar chart. A close above resistance at $5.70 would negate that pattern and target 40-day moving average resistance at $5.76 1/2. A break below support at $5.55 would signal a technical breakdown, targeting the contract low at $5.41 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton fell 44 points to 65.55 cents but ended near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures retreated a bit, after forging strong corrective gains on Monday, as technical resistance curbed extended short-covering interest as uncertainty continues to ring across the marketplace. The cotton market likely received a boost on Monday around optimism that India, by steering clear of retaliatory tariffs and leveraging Prime Minister’ Narendra Modi’s warm rapport with President Trump, could strike a favorable trade deal. This could ultimately benefit India in the way of supply chain shifts as global firms look to move production out of higher-tariff Asian nations.
While too much rain has fallen recently in the U.S. Delta, cotton production areas in west and south Texas will remain dry over the next ten days to two weeks. Meanwhile, in South America, northern Argentina cotton areas will see a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks, while rain will continue to impact Mato Grosso and neighboring areas of Brazil periodically during the next two weeks, maintaining a favorable outlook for development. However, some Bahia crops have been too dry recently and some rain will evolve briefly later this week and next week to offer some short-term relief.
USDA reported 4% of the cotton crop was planted as of April 6, two percentage-points behind the five-year average. Texas was 6% planted, four points behind average.
Technical analysis: May cotton continued to face technical headwinds at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, currently trading at 66.23 cents, 66.25 cents and 66.48 cents, while support served at 64.65 cents. Bulls will need to overcome the 40-day moving average in order to advance toward 70.00 cents, while bears will continue to look towards edging back below last week’s low 60.80 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.