Corn
Price action: December corn climbed 3 1/2 cents to $4.37 and closed near mid-range. That marked a 10-cent gain on the week.
5-day outlook: Corn futures showed promising gains early in the session but ultimately succumbed to persistent selling pressure late in the session. If prices would have closed near today’s high, it would have led to a high chance of a technical breakout and potential summer rally. That marks today’s high as key in determining the near-term direction. A close above resistance at $4.40 would signal a technical breakout and would quickly open the door for higher prices. As it stands now, bears continue to hold the technical advantage, opening the door for continued weakness over the next week. Bulls need to quickly build on recent momentum and work to drive prices higher.
30-day outlook: Weather is going to be the main focus of the market over the course of the next month. Pollination is already starting in some areas of the Corn Belt. Most of the Corn Belt has adequate soil moisture to help carry the crop through the upcoming period of normal temperatures, says World Weather Inc. Precip over the next couple of weeks is not anticipated to be frequent enough to prevent the Midwest from drying down modestly. Given the beneficial forecast and high acres, funds continue to be active sellers in corn futures, though it would not take much to get them to change their tone this time of year, and once short-covering begins it can snowball into larger gains.
90-day outlook: Once the crop size is better realized, attention will quickly turn to demand. USDA anticipates record use in 2025-26, helping offset the anticipated record crop. A big chunk of that demand is expected to come in the form of exports. With many trade deals in limbo and Mexico meeting with Brazil this week, export demand remains somewhat of a concern. Sales for the new-crop marketing year are above the past couple years but are historically average. Given the other main use categories (feed and ethanol) are somewhat limited on the upside, export demand will draw more and more attention as harvest draws near.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans rose 2 cents to $10.56 1/4 and marked a 22 1/4-cent weekly gain. August meal rose 60 cents to $277.40 and forged a $1.80 gain on the week, while August soyoil slid 47 points to 54.55 cents, and still notched a 207-point weekly gain.
5-day outlook: Soybeans firmed for the third straight session, recapturing a notable portion of the recent selloff. Daily flash sales of 226,000 MT of old-crop soybeans and 195,000 MT of soymeal were certainly helpful, and indicative that current prices are spurring export demand despite South America holding fresh supplies. Further evidence stemmed fromUSDA’s weekly export sales data, which showed a 15% jump in net soybean sales on the week to 46,400 MT, which was also up 48% from the four-week average.
Futures were able to edge above key resistance, though faded from session highs as the day progressed. This is likely attributed to traders positioning ahead of the holiday weekend, and especially as President Trump is slated to speak in Iowa, with rumors indicating details of a trade pact with China. Look for next week’s open to prove volatile, with direction largely dependent on how the market perceives the announcement.
30-day outlook: USDA reported the soybean crop as 66% “good” to “excellent” as of June 29, unchanged on the week, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating held at 7%. Of the top 18 production states, 10 states showed improved conditions, while 6 states showed declines, with 2 unchanged on the week. Most of the improvements were found in western locations, while the declines were in eastern locations. The top five rated soybean states are Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Iowa and Wisconsin, while the five lowest rated soybean states are Michigan, Illinois, North Dakota, Tennessee and Indiana. Meanwhile, soil moisture remains highest in Ohio, Minnesota, Tennessee, Iowa and Minnesota, while Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Kansas and South Dakota currently have the lowest soil moisture levels.
90-day outlook: Trade deals and export demand for soybeans and meal will be the main focus as the calendar year progresses. The recent biomass biodiesel mandate has ensured domestic soyoil demand, though price action in meal has shown apprehension around demand keeping up with supplies. However, with meal prices at multi-year lows, it could certainly spur some bargain buying in the export marketplace and feed use.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat futures fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.78 1/4, near the session low and on the week up 15 1/4 cents. December HRW wheat futures lost 5 1/4 cents to $5.60 3/4 and near the daily low. For the week, December HRW rose 4 cents. September spring wheat fell 1 3/4 cent to $6.47 1/4, but up 19 1/4 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw some mild profit-taking pressure to end the holiday-shortened trading week. Still, the bulls have a good week, to suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. Still, bulls will have to show more price strength early next week to keep the chart-based speculators interested in playing the long side. With winter wheat harvest moving into high gear, commercial hedge selling pressure may keep any gains limited in the near term.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, “a relatively good mix of rain and sunshine will impact hard red winter wheat areas during the next two weeks. The environment will be good for wheat filling and maturation in the north, although the precipitation may prove to be a little disruptive for harvesting in the south.” In the northern Plains, conditions the next 10 days to two weeks “will be nearly ideal for the region with a favorable mix of rain and sunshine. Montana may be a little drier than preferred in some areas, said the forecaster.
30-day outlook: Wheat markets in the next several weeks will likely be more impacted by price action in the corn and soybean futures markets, as both of those crops will be entering their more critical growth phases during this time. The other major fundamental will be U.S trade relations with its major counterparts. As the July 9 U.S.-imposed trade deal deadline approaches, the global trade posture may quickly improve in the coming weeks due to new trade deals, or deteriorate due to a lack thereof. Grain markets will very likely be impacted by likely new developments on the global trade front.
90-day outlook: USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales totaled 586,000 MT for 2025-26, within market expectations and were primarily for the Philippines. U.S. wheat sales will have to improved in the coming month in order for futures prices to continue to trend higher. The U.S. dollar index this week fell to a 3.5-year low, which should make U.S. wheat more attractive on the world trade markets. Moving into later summer, wheat traders will have a better grasp on the size and quality of this year’s U.S. winter wheat crop.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton closed down 17 points to 68.46 cents, and marked a weekly loss of 86 points.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures paused following Wednesday’s gains as a firmer U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil negated support from rallying equities. Stronger-than-expected job growth in June took some pressure off the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at the end of the month, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated there’s no rush to reduce borrowing costs until there is more clarity on the impact of tariffs on inflation.
However, the most impactful data point this week was released by USDA, which showed net cotton acres of 10.12 million acres, which was above pre-report expectations and the March Prospective Plantings figure of 9.867 million acres. Cotton faced notable selling after the report was released, but was later followed by some corrective strength, amid budding optimism of confirmed trade deals ahead of the July 9 deadline.
30-day outlook: USDA reported the cotton crop was 95% planted as of June 29, while the “good” to “excellent” condition rating rose 4 percentage points to 51%. Meanwhile the portion of the crop rated “poor” to “very poor” declined three points from the previous week. Conditions should continue to show an improvement as West Texas rainfall is expected to occur frequently into Friday, according to World Weather Inc., though a more sporadic rainfall distribution is likely after that. Meanwhile, field conditions in portions of the Delta firmed up nicely last week and will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks along with seasonal temps. Most of the southeastern states will also experience a good mix of weather with some of the greatest rainfall expected in the eastern Carolinas late this week and into early next week, according to the forecaster. Areas that are not expected to receive much moisture include the Blacklands, Texas Coastal Bend and South Texas.
90-day outlook: Demand for cotton will continue to be the longer-term market driver, with an increasing focus on potential trade deals. Robust interest rates have kept cotton prices at bay despite a plunging U.S. dollar as domestic demand prospects fade amid fading disposable incomes and demand for discretionary products, many of which are made with cotton. Look for traders to continue to closely monitor economic data, which will determine Monetary Policy, however a confirmed trade deal which includes cotton purchases, could certainly help negate risk aversion that’s been commonplace since early April.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.