Corn
Price action: December corn rose 3 1/4 cents to $4.83, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw a short-covering bounce after Friday’s shellacking that pushed prices to a two-month low. The strong U.S. dollar index that recently hit a 1.5-year high is also a bearish outside-market element for corn futures. Combines in the Corn Belt are shifting into high gear, which is also prompting better commercial hedge pressure on corn futures.
Last Friday’s Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that large speculators had cut their corn net long position by 60,000 contracts in the weekly period ending on Oct. 6. That left them with a long position at a still elevated 317,400 contracts ahead of Friday’s bearish USDA data, which triggered the biggest one-day slump for corn since 2023 and raises the risk of further liquidation from an already crowded long position.
The weekly USDA crop progress reports are delayed by one day, until Tuesday afternoon, due to the Columbus Day federal holiday today.
World Weather Inc. today said corn harvesting in the Midwest will occur rapidly in most areas during the next two weeks, around two rounds of organized precipitation. Much of the region from eastern Kansas to Missouri and northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana will receive 0.75-2.25” of rain and locally more Tuesday into Thursday, while other areas from eastern Nebraska to the eastern Corn Belt and Wisconsin receive 0.20-1.0” and locally more. Friday through Sunday will be mostly dry with light rain in a few eastern areas Friday and in a few southern areas Sunday before 10-20% of the Midwest receives up to 0.35” of rain and locally more Oct. 19-20.
Technical analysis: December corn sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.57 1/4. First resistance is seen at $4.85 and then at $4.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.76 and then at last week’s low of $4.70 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 4 1/4 cents to $12.87 3/4, nearer the daily high. December soybean meal rose $3.10 to $368.70, near the daily high and closed at a two-week high close. December soybean oil rose 61 points to 68.63 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw some modest commercial hedge selling pressure today as combines are rolling full speed over much of the Midwest. The stronger U.S. dollar index recently that is near last week’s 1.5-year high is a bearish outside-market factor for soybeans.
The weekly USDA crop progress reports are delayed by one day, until Tuesday afternoon, due to the Columbus Day federal holiday today.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in parts of the U.S. Midwest, Plains and southeastern states has induced some delay to fieldwork but in most cases the disruption will be brief and no harm will come to crop quality. Meantime, southern Brazil is too wet and will stay that way through mid-week. Some flooding is expected and there is a slight risk of crop damage that might warrant some replanting. Timely rain is expected in center west and perhaps some northeastern crop areas later this week into next week.
Technical analysis: November soybeans still see a fledgling downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.50. First resistance is seen at $13.00 and then at last week’s high of $13.09. First support is seen last week’s low of $12.69 3/4 and then at $12.56 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $344.20. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $368.80 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $360.00 and then at $355.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at 69.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 70.04 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 67.33 cents and then at the September low of 66.61 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 1 1/4 cents to $6.72 1/4, nearer the session high. December HRW lost 4 cents to $7.15 1/4, near mid-range and closed at a three-month low close. December spring wheat futures rose a penny to $6.96 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw two-sided price action today, with SRW posting a mild short-covering bounce by the close, while HRW saw technical selling prevail. Both flavors see their prices remaining trapped in downtrends on the daily bar charts. That’s keeping the chart-based specs charged up and suggests the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to lower. The strong U.S. dollar index that is near its recent 1.5-year high is also a bearish outside-market element for the wheat futures markets.
President Trump on Sunday said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire,” but offered no details on the agreement. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday morning said Russia had used drones and missiles to strike power and gas facilities overnight, the Financial Times reported. Meantime, APK-Inform increased Ukraine’s 2026 wheat harvest forecast to 25.5 MMT from the previous outlook of 25 MMT, but cut its grain export estimate by 6.5% to 31.7%. Russia’s IKAR consultancy said that it sees Russia’s 2026 grain crop at 137 MMT, down from 138 MMT in its previous forecast.
The weekly USDA crop progress reports are delayed by one day, until Tuesday afternoon, due to the Columbus Day federal holiday today.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, fieldwork advanced swiftly during the weekend, but unusually warm temperatures quickly depleted topsoil moisture. The rain expected Tuesday into Friday should help improve soil moisture in many areas. Rain is needed most in Oklahoma, where it has been persistently dry. In the Northern Plains, cold air and some snow occurred in central Montana over the weekend, which may have caused some crop and livestock stress following highs in the 80s and 90s last Friday. Lighter precipitation and warming temperatures will occur across much of the crop region for the next few days, which may disrupt some fieldwork, but will generally benefit winter crops.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at$6.80 and then at $6.90. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.61 1/2 and then at $6.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at $7.25 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $7.09 and then at $7.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 6 points to 80.60 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw tepid short covering today. Selling interest was limited by higher crude oil prices. Losses in most of the grain futures markets today were bearish for cotton futures. The stronger U.S. dollar index that is near the recent 1.5-year high is also a bearish outside-market factor for cotton.
The weekly USDA crop progress reports are delayed by one day, until Tuesday afternoon, due to the Columbus Day federal holiday today.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S.cotton quality has either been compromised or soon will be except in the Delta. Hurricane Isaias brought more rain to the southeastern states during the weekend, causing some additional crop damage – mostly to quality. Southern California, Arizona and northwestern Mexico cotton also experienced some short-term discoloring and harvest delay during the weekend. Remnants of Hurricane Simon are expected to impact West Texas and southwestern Oklahoma Tuesday through Thursday of this week, possibly inducing some fiber quality declines.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures still see prices trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 81.78 cents and then at 82.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 78.77 cents and then at the October low of 77.05 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.