Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 4 cents to $4.10, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures bulls needed to step up and show fresh power to keep alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart—and they did just that today. Buying interest in corn futures was helped today by good weekly export sales numbers. USDA this morning reported weekly net reductions of 17,800 MT for 2024-25, but net sales totaled 2.09 MMT for 2025-26. Old-crop sales were within the net range of expectations of -200,000 MT to 150,000 MT, while new-crop sales were within the expected range of 1.2 to 2.6 MMT. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also worked in favor of the corn market bulls.
World Weather Inc. said Brazil’s Safrinha corn harvesting is winding down “and the environment has been quite good for that purpose.” Good harvest weather is expected to continue this week, with some rain to disrupt fieldwork in the south later this week. Late-season harvesting in Argentina is also winding down. Argentina’s big rain event expected this weekend will soak the ground and delay late-season harvest activity.
Technical analysis: December corn futures prices are still trending up on the daily bar chart after today’s gains. The bulls needed to show fresh power to revive the price uptrend. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the August high of $4.16 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.12 and then at Tuesday’s high of $4.14 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.03 1/2 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 1 1/4 cents to $10.48 3/4, nearer the daily high. September soybean meal fell $6.80 to $286.30, nearer the daily low. September soybean oil fell 72 points to 51.75 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex bulls came on strong late today, after being under mild pressure much of the session. However, meal prices will have to at least stabilize if soybean bulls want to extend their price uptrend on the daily chart. Stronger-than-expected new-crop U.S. soybean sales did support buying interest in soybeans today. USDA reported weekly net old-crop reductions of 189,200 MT, which were within the pre-report range of net reductions of 200,000 MT to 50,000 MT. However, new-crop U.S. soybean sales of 1.37 million MT topped expectations ranging from 450,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said areas from southeastern Missouri to southern Illinois and western Kentucky will be mostly dry through next Tuesday and stress to crops and declines in soybean yields are likely to increase as soil moisture is already short and the remaining moisture is lost to evaporation. “Mild temperatures during the next week will reduce increases in stress and at least some rain in much of the region Wednesday into next Thursday will induce at least some benefit to soybeans, but the rain should come too late to induce significant increases in yields,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the June high of $10.74 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $10.62 3/4 and then at $10.74 1/4. First support is seen at $10.35 and then at $10.25.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart is now in serious jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the August high of $305.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $275.00. First resistance comes in at $290.00 and then at today’s high of $293.50. First support is seen at $283.00 and then at $280.00.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 51.14 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 52.63 cents and then at 53.00 cents. First support is seen at 51.50 cents and then at 51.14 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers:: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 4 3/4 cents to $5.29, near the daily high. December HRW wheat rose 2 3/4 cents to $5.15 3/4, near the daily high and hit another contract low early on. December spring wheat futures rose a nickel to $5.77 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw some short covering but continue to languish at or near their contract lows. Technical selling has been featured as the near-term chart postures for SRW and HRW remain firmly bearish. Winter wheat futures prices were supported by a weaker U.S. dollar index today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 579,800 MT for the week ended Aug. 21, up 12% from the previous week but down 10% from the four-week average. Exports during the week reached a marketing-year high of 1.005 million MT.
France’s wheat exports outside the EU are expected to rebound to 8 million MT in 2025-26 from last season’s low, but stockpiles in the country are still the largest in 21 years, according to Argus.
World Weather Inc. said additional rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas in the next few days “will further soak the ground for planting, although initial fieldwork will be delayed because of the rain. Long-term prospects for the early crop will be good.” Another bout of frosty weather is possible in eastern Canada’s Prairies next week, but it should not harm the cereal crops, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.35 1/2 and then at the August high of $5.42 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.17 1/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.18 1/4 and then at last week’s high of $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.06 3/4 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 62 points to 67.30 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting today, following solid losses earlier this week. A weaker U.S. dollar index and stock indexes that are still near their record highs were supportive outside-market elements for cotton today.
USDA today reported net U.S. cotton sales of 179,300 running bales (RB) for the 2025/2026 marketing year, primarily for Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Mexico. Exports of 112,700 RB were primarily to Vietnam, Bangladesh (11,500 RB), India (10,900 RB), Mexico (7,600 RB), and Turkey (6,500 RB).
World Weather Inc. said isolated and light showers brought rain to several small areas in West Texas south of Lubbock Wednesday, with light rain in a few locations in the northern Panhandle as well, while rain also fell on the central and northern Coastal Bend, parts of South Texas, and a part of the southern Blacklands. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see significant rain Friday through Sunday, with follow-up rain Wednesday into next Thursday leaving much of the region with notable improvements in soil moisture and conditions for cotton development. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend and south Texas will see isolated to scattered showers most days during the next two weeks and much of the region will receive multiple rounds of rain that will improve conditions for cotton development.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 68.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the August low of 65.88 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.59 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at 67.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 66.55 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.