Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 3 cents to $4.62 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw a decent corrective bounce from Monday’s losses, to keep alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Gains were especially impressive today given solid gains in the U.S. dollar index.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025-26 Brazilian corn production estimate by 1 MMT to 132 MMT due to late plantings and dryness developing in southern safrinha areas. He noted a neutral to lower bias going forward. Cordonnier maintained his Argentine corn estimate of 53 MMT, and holds a neutral bias going forward as weather continues to improve.
World Weather Inc. today said Brazil weather continues favorable for ongoing crop development. There is a need for greater rain in southern Safrinha crop areas and some of that will be provided in the next two weeks, although resulting amounts and frequency will be light. Argentina received some heavy rain during the weekend resulting in local flooding. Argentina needs some drier weather for a while so that early season summer crop harvesting can advance once again.
Technical analysis: A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.45. First resistance is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.76. First support is seen at $4.60 and then at this week’s low of $4.56 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 8 1/2 cents to $11.55, near the daily low. May soybean meal lost $4.20 to $322.40, near the daily low. May soybean oil rose 15 points to 65.73, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures today saw technical selling pressure and also saw buying interest limited amid solid gains in the U.S. dollar index. Technically oriented bulls are still worried about a bear flag pattern that has formed on the daily chart for May and July bean futures.
The Trump administration will release its 2026-27 biofuel blending volumes obligations this week, according to Reuters. The rule will not differ materially from volumes proposed by the EPA prior to the onset of the Iran war, according to its sources.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his 2025-26 Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates unchanged at 178 MMT and 47 MMT, respectively. He now holds a neutral bias toward both crops going forward.
Brazil’s soybean exports in March fell to a daily average of about 633,400 MT through the third week, down 17.9% from last year’s full-March average, according to the Brazilian government.
World Weather Inc. today said most of Brazil and Paraguay will receive additional rain into Thursday that will be important in southern growing areas before a drier weather pattern occurs Friday into April 4 in central and southern Brazil and Paraguay. Central and eastern Parana into eastern Sao Paulo will be driest through the next 10 days. Northern Brazil will be wettest during the next 10 days and fieldwork will be slowed while the rain maintains favorable conditions. In Argentina, rain during the past several days and additional rain during the next two weeks should ensure soil moisture is favorable for developing crops through most of the period, while breaks between rounds of rain should allow fieldwork to advance outside of areas that recently received heavy rain where additional drying time is needed.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field. A bear flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart for May and July soybeans. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.76 and then at $11.85. First support is seen at the March low of $11.45 1/4 and then at $11.36 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $307.60. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $327.50 and then at this week’s high of $332.40. First support is seen at $320.00 and then at $317.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 67.15 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 64.22 cents and then at last week’s low of 63.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 2 1/4 cents to $5.90, nearer the daily high. May HRW gained 3/4 cent to $6.04, nearer the session low. May spring wheat rose 4 1/4 cents to $6.31 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw tepid corrective bounces today following the selling pressure seen on Monday. Decent gains in corn and solid gains in crude oil prices today also worked in favor of the wheat market bulls.
Sovecon increased its Russian 2025-26 wheat export forecast by 1.1 MMT to 46.5 MMT, while the estimate for 2026-27 was increased by 2.1 MMT to 43.8 MMT.
Wheat farmers in Australia - one of the world’s biggest agricultural exporters - are paring back plantings as concerns over fertilizer supplies mount, the latest sign of how the war in Iran is disrupting operations on farms around the world, according to Bloomberg.
World Weather Inc. today said hot weather in hard red winter wheat areas late last week and more heat this week will not bode well for crops already injured by extreme cold in January and mid-March. A cool and rainy period of weather is needed immediately to support new tillering, but time may soon run out for that. Rain is possible in some areas during early April. Hot weather is expected again Wednesday and Thursday of this week and again early next week. Some minor injury to soft wheat in the U.S. Midwest, Delta and Southeastern states occurred early last week; though no permanent harm to the majority of crops resulted. There may be a few exceptions, though.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, price uptrends on the daily bar charts have stalled out, however. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at this week’s high of $6.06 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.82 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $5.77 3/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.70. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.17 3/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at this week’s low of $5.91 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 44 points to 67.62 cents, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. Short covering from the shorter-term futures traders was also featured today. Solid gains in crude oil prices and higher corn and wheat futures prices today also supported buying interest in cotton. Gains in cotton were limited by a good rally in the U.S. dollar index today.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the southern U.S. Plains, today’s forecast includes less rain for early next week and little rain is now expected through the next 10 days before a low-confidence period of wetter weather Apr. 4-7 possibly induces beneficial increases in soil moisture in parts of the region. Meantime, southern Arizona will see be dry through much of the next two weeks and the few infrequent showers that may occur should not bring enough rain to prevent the moisture from quickly being lost to evaporation while the San Joaquin Valley benefits from rain Mar. 31-Apr. 2 when at least temporary increases in soil moisture result.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 70.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 67.97 cents and then at 68.50 cents. First support is seen at 67.00 cents and then at today’s low of 66.65 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.