Corn
Price action: December corn rose 6 cents to $4.36, nearer the daily high and hit another contract low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw corrective buying following a batch of USDA data that contained no big, bearish surprises and leaned a bit friendly on U.S. stocks. But the bearish 800-pound gorilla in the trading room remains generally very good growing weather over most of the Midwest.
USDA data released today showed there were still 1.90 million acres of U.S. corn left to be planted at the time of its survey. The agency estimated U.S. corn plantings at 95.343 million acres, up 5,000 acres from March intentions and 351,000 acres more than analysts expected. Meantime, the quarterly grain stocks report showed June 1 U.S. corn stocks in all positions totaled 5.29 billion bushels, up 652 million bu. (14%) from year-ago but were 113 million bu. below the average pre-report estimate.
Corn production in France could plummet 30% to a 26-year low this year after a record heatwave damaged some crops and farmers planted less of the crop, according to growers’ group AGPM.
World Weather Inc. today said some beneficial moisture fell in a part of the drier areas of South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota during the weekend, just before a period of very warm to hot weather impacts the region. Not much rain will fall in the area again for the next week to nine days. In contrast, flooding rain occurred during the weekend in southern Indiana and Kentucky threatening some crop areas. This week’s drier and warm weather will be good for all crops, although it will be quite warm and humid. Most crops should benefit from the warmer and somewhat drier weather.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, today’s technically bullish “key reversal” is one chart clue that the market has put in a near-term bottom. It must be noted, however, that December corn last week also produced a bullish key reversal up—and prices sunk still lower. A price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.40 and then at today’s high of $4.42 1/2. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.25 3/4 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 4 3/4 cents to $11.43 3/4, near mid-range after hitting a two-week low early on. September soybean meal rose $0.60 to $301.90, near mid-range after hitting a nine-month low early on. September soybean oil fell 160 points to 66.44 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a nine-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex today saw short covering following a mostly neutral batch of fresh USDA data. Price gains were again limited by growing weather in the Midwest that remains overall non-threatening, despite a heat some presently stationed over much of the Corn Belt. That heat dome is not expected to last and rain chances are good into the extended forecast for the region.
Today’s USDA data showed there were still 8.05 million acres of soybeans left to be planted at the time of its acreage survey. USDA estimated U.S. soybean plantings at 85.365 million acres, up 665,000 acres from March intentions and 4,000 acres less than analysts expected. Meanwhile, June 1 U.S. soybean stocks stored in all positions totaled 1.06 billion bushels, up 54 million bu. (5%) from year ago and 15 million bu. above trade expectations.
The rollout of a pioneering palm-diesel blend in Indonesia is set to stretch Indonesian biofuel makers to their limits and tighten global supplies of the tropical oil by diverting it away from export markets, according to a Bloomberg report. Indonesian biofuel producers have expressed concern about their ability to sustain higher output through the next year, with the latest mandate requiring that biofuels make up 50% of the diesel blend.
World Weather Inc. today said the drier areas in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt will see regular rounds of rain through this weekend that will result in additional and important increases in soil moisture that will be needed when drier weather returns Monday into July 14. The southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt will be warm to hot and dry most often into Friday and the abundant soil moisture in place in most areas will support crop development while keeping humidity levels high enough to prevent excessive heat from evolving before many areas receive rain this weekend. Soil moisture will still be adequate when drier weather occurs Monday into July 14 and the moisture will be important in supporting crop development, with greater rain needed soon to ensure crops have adequate soil moisture.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $11.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.50 and then at last week’s high of $11.60 1/4. First support is seen at $11.30 and then at the June low of $11.21 3/4.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $307.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $303.30 and then at last week’s high of $304.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $297.80 and then at the contract low of $296.60.
Bean oil sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 70.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.00 cents and then at today’s high of 68.10 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 9 1/2 cents to $5.89 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a more-than-four-month low early on today. September HRW gained 10 1/2 cents to $6.25 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a 3.5-month low. September spring wheat rose 5 3/4 cents to $6.06 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering and some fresh speculator buying interest following a price-friendly batch of USDA data released today.
USDA today estimated U.S. all-wheat plantings at 42.740 million acres, down 1.035 million acres from March intentions and 1.11 million acres less than analysts expected. Winter wheat plantings at 31.520 million declined 902,000 from March, while other spring wheat acres at 9.39 million fell 25,000 acres and durum wheat fell 120,000 acres to 1.83 million. Old-crop U.S. wheat stocks on June 1 totaled 920 million bushels, up 63 million bu. (8%) from year-ago but were 14 million bu. below the average pre-report estimate.
World weather today said recent rain in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and the lower Midwest has been a little too much for filling and maturing wheat. Drier weather expected this week along with hotter temperatures should prove to be more supportive of those processes. Too much rain is also falling in parts of Canada and in central portions of Russia’s New Lands, possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. This week’s weather will remain wet in both areas with some improving trends anticipated for next week. Europe weather has been hot and dry recently stressing some crops. However, most of those outside of France had sufficient subsoil moisture to support small grain development without much concern. The coming week of weather will eventually trend cooler, although rain will be restricted to areas from Italy to eastern Germany and Poland as well as from Greece through Romania to a part of Ukraine. The moisture will be welcome. Portions of France have been too dry and hot recently for ideal winter wheat and barley conditions. The crop will be smaller than originally expected.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.26 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.94 3/4 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at $5.80 and then at today’s low of $5.74.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.64 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.34 3/4 and then at$6.44. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.10 3/4 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 35 points to 76.80 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw another tepid corrective bounce today. Gains in the U.S. stock indexes today were mildly positive for cotton. Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop in 16% poor to very poor condition, 36% fair condition and 48% good to excellent condition as of Sunday. The U.S. cotton crop was 97% planted, 37% squaring and 9% setting pods as of Sunday.
USDA’s data dump today estimated U.S. cotton plantings at 9.85 million acres, up 210,000 acres from March intentions and 212,000 acres higher than expected. Cotton seedings are up an impressive 570,000 acres from 2025. Texas planted 5.425 million acres to cotton, up 104,000 acres from March intentions. Georgia planted 1.0 million acres to cotton, up 165,000 from March intentions.
World Weather Inc. today said cotton areas in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see isolated and light showers on occasion during the next two weeks that will fail to produce enough rain to have a significant impact on cotton or soil conditions, with better-organized rain expected today into Wednesday and Sunday into next Tuesday. The two rain events advertised will support cotton development in areas that have recently received significant rain while dryland cotton areas that have missed out on significant rain will not likely see much more than brief improvements in conditions for cotton. Little rain is expected during the next two weeks in south Texas, the Blacklands, and the Coastal Bend, where the topsoil has become short of moisture while subsoil moisture is still great enough to support most cotton development.By the third week of July subsoil moisture will be short enough in many areas that greater rain will be needed soon.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 80.47 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at 78.00 cents and then at 79.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 75.50 cents and then at 75.17 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.