Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3 cents to $4.23 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market saw some more profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term traders. Solid gains in the U.S. dollar index today were also negative for the grain markets.
Corn bulls got little help from USDA today reporting a daily sale of 110,000 MT of corn to Mexico during the 2025-26 marketing year. USDA reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 1.232 MMT for the week ended Sept. 11, which was within the expected pre-report range of 500,000 MT to 1.9 MMT.
Conab has forecast that Brazil will export 46.5 MMT of corn in marketing year 2025-26.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see a wet weather pattern through late next week and much of the region will see multiple rounds of rain, with the southwestern Corn Belt into Illinois the wettest. Although some areas from the northwestern and southwestern Corn Belt into Illinois will see moderate to locally heavy rain during the next few days, the soil is dry enough to absorb much of the moisture without becoming excessively muddy and causing prolonged delays to fieldwork. Drier weather and improving conditions for fieldwork will occur Sep. 27-Oct. 2, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. December corn futures prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.14. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.28 and then at $4.31 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.22 and then at $4.18.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 6 1/4 cents to $10.37 1/2, nearer the session low. December soybean meal fell $1.00 to $284.70, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low. December soybean oil fell 65 points to 51.13 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw more profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures traders. The meal futures market slumping to a two-week low today also depressed the soybean market bulls. A rally in the U.S. dollar index today was a bearish outside-market element for the soy complex futures.
USDA reported U.S. soybean export sales of 923,000 MT for the week ended Sept. 11, which was within the pre-report range of expectations at 400,000 MT to 1.5 MMT.
Conab has forecast Brazil will increase soybean production by 3.5% in 2025-26. Exports were estimated to rise from 106 MMT to 112 MMT during 2025-26.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see a wet weather pattern through late next week and much of the region will see multiple rounds of rain, with the southwestern Corn Belt into Illinois the wettest. Much of the eastern Corn Belt outside of Illinois will be dry through Saturday but rain is expected Sunday into next week. “Early harvesting should advance well in the eastern Corn Belt through Saturday, while some fieldwork advances in the western Corn Belt around the showers and thunderstorms is expected,” said the forecaster. “Although some areas from the northwestern and southwestern Corn Belt into Illinois will see moderate to locally heavy rain during the next few days, the soil is dry enough to absorb much of the moisture without becoming excessively muddy and causing prolonged delays to fieldwork.” Drier weather and improving conditions for fieldwork will occur Sep. 27-Oct. 2, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit and need to show fresh price strength soon to keep their chart edge. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.62 3/4.
The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.21 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.52 3/4 and then at $10.62 3/4. First support is seen at $10.30 and then at $10.21 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on neutral ground but the bulls are fading. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $286.00 and then at $290.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $283.30 and then at $281.40.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls are fading. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 50.02 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.97 cents and then at 52.50 cents. First support is seen at 51.00 cents and then at 50.50 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 4 cents to $5.24 1/4, near the session low. December HRW lost 6 1/4 cents to $5.10, nearer the session low. Spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $5.71 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets hit multi-week highs Wednesday but have now given back all of this week’s gains. More profit-taking and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term futures traders was featured today amid lower corn and soybean futures prices.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 377, 500 MT, up 24% from the previous week but down 12% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low-end of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 650,000 MT.
The International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2025-26 global wheat production by 8 MMT to 819 MMT, amid improved outlooks for Australia, Russia and Canada.
World Weather Inc. said that in U.S. HRW country a mostly favorable weather pattern will continue the next two weeks. “More rain shower activity in the next seven days will be good for providing additional moisture needed for winter wheat planting. Due to the erratic nature of the rain, there will likely be some pockets of the region that could use a little more moisture. However, recent rainfall has been mostly good.” Rain should increase again later in the second week of the outlook after a few days of dry weather.
Southwesterly wind flow aloft is a possibility near the end of September which could help increase rainfall prospects. In the northern Plains, rainfall the next seven days will occur mainly in the eastern half of the region, with net drying in most production areas farther to the west. The rain shower activity that occurs in the east will likely cause some fieldwork delays. Unusual warmth will continue to dominate and will be a benefit to harvest progress. Temperatures will likely trend cooler in western production areas in the second week of the outlook.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained momentum late this week. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.12. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.35 3/4 and then at $5.42 3/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.20 1/2 and then $5.12.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.19 and then at this week’s high of $5.24. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.01 3/4 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 35 points to 66.90 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market bulls have lost steam quickly after hitting a three-week high Wednesday. A stronger U.S. dollar index today was a bearish outside-market element for the natural fiber.
USDA this morning reported U.S. cotton sales of 186,100 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were up 44 percent from the previous week and up 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam, India and Malaysia. Total net sales of 19,000 RB for 2026/2027 were for Vietnam. Exports of 120,500 RB were down 8 percent from the previous week and down from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam, Turkey, Mexico and India.
World Weather Inc. said significant rain fell on the central, northern, and east-central Panhandle Wednesday, where increases in soil moisture occurred and while a little cotton was likely discolored a large part of the region’s bolls were not likely open and vulnerable to rain. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas will also be dry through most of the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting should occur in a mostly favorable environment around some infrequent showers. Much of the region will receive at least some rain Tuesday into Wednesday, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 69.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the September low of 65.80 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.31 cents and then at this week’s high of 67.84 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 66.46 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.