Corn
Price action: May corn rose 5 cents to $4.48 1/2, nearer the daily high, hit a six-week high and for the week up 8 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: May corn futures today saw a technically bullish weekly and monthly high close, suggesting follow-through price strength early next week from the chart-based speculators. Corn traders will continue to look to the surging wheat markets for daily price direction. Surging winter wheat futures prices are also bullish for corn.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 257,000 MT to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, rain through next Friday will favor northern regions where soil moisture will be left favorable for crop development and for long-term Safrinha corn prospects. Central and especially southern Brazil and Paraguay will see much less rain than northern Brazil through next Friday before a timely round of rain occurs Mar. 7-11. Soil moisture is marginal to short in some Safrinha corn areas from Mato Grosso do Sul into Parana and nearby Sao Paulo and with little rain into next Friday soil moisture should become short in much of the region. In Argentina, little rain is expected through early next week in the driest areas in north-central and eastern Argentina where stress to crops is likely to increase while occasional rain and favorable soil moisture in place today in most of the remainder of Argentina allows most crops to develop in a favorable environment. Stress to crops into early next week should be greatest in Chaco, northern Santa Fe, northern Corrientes, south-central into east-central and southeastern Entre Rios, and central and north-central to eastern Buenos Aires where soil moisture is already short.
90-day outlook: The grain markets this week digested fairly well last Friday’s Supreme Court ruling against the Trump administration’s tariff regime, including the rhetoric that came from U.S. trading counterparts after the ruling. This week’s rally in the corn market amid the keener risk aversion in the general marketplace is a positive sign heading into spring. As springtime comes into view, grain trader focus will shift from South American weather to U.S. weather. USDA’s late-March Prospective Plantings Report and its results will also be a major market driver.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 7 1/4 cents to $11.70 3/4, nearer the session high and closing at a three-month high close. For the week, May beans rose 17 1/2 cents. May soybean meal fell 40 cents to $320.50, near mid-range. For the week, May meal was up $6.70. May bean oil rose 9 points to 61.85 cents, near mid-range and hit a contract high. For the week May bean oil was up 255 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market today saw technical buying, with today’s technically bullish weekly and monthly high close pointing to follow-through buying interest from the chart-based speculators early next week. The meal futures market also performed well this week, which is also encouraging to the bean bulls. Soybean meal may continue to perform better in the near term as spreaders at some point will have to unwind their long bean oil, short meal spreads. The big rallies in winter wheat markets today were also price-positive for soybeans.
Consultancy, Safras & Mercado estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 177.72 MMT, down from its previous forecast of 179.28 MMT. Producers in Brazil are facing unusually long delays to deliver soybeans at the Mirituba port terminal in the Amazon rainforest, as a record harvest overwhelms logistics at one of the world’s key export hubs for soybeans, according to Reuters.
Palm oil output in Sabah is set for a sharp decline this month as heavy rainfall and floods damage plantations in one of Malaysia’s key producing states, potentially easing a glut that’s weighed on prices for the crop, said a Bloomberg report.
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are still closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said good field and weather conditions in Brazil are expected for soybean maturation and harvesting. Rainy weather will occur from northern Minas Gerais to Maranhao and Piaui, where some delay to farming activity is expected. Drying from southern Mato Grosso and areas south to Rio Grande do Sul should be closely monitored for too much drying in the second week of March, but conditions in this first week of the outlook should prove to be very good. Meantime, Argentina’s recent rain has helped reduce dryness and improve crop conditions. Some of the stressful conditions this summer may have shaved down yield potential, but no disaster occurred and the smaller crop will easily be countered by the big crop in Brazil. Eastern Argentina will be dry for at least another week resulting in a firmer soil and rising crop stress in the driest areas. Rain late next week and into the following weekend will prove to be timely and beneficial.
90-day outlook: Soyoil strength is helping lead the soy complex higher as refiners look to lock in supplies following the EPA’s 2026 biomass-biodiesel mandate, which increased 2.26 billion gallons from 2025. Recently, EPA sent a proposal to the White House to reallocate exemptions, which triggered an extended rally. A decision by the Trump administration may come in March. The planned summit between President’s Trump and Xi in April will be very closely watched by the grain markets. The late-March USDA planting intentions report will be one of the most important USDA data points of the year.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat rose 17 cents to $5.91 1/2, nearer the daily high, hit a seven-month high and for the week were up 11 1/4 cents. May HRW wheat rose 18 1/4 cents to $5.80 1/2, nearer the daily high and on the week down 4 3/4 cents. Spring wheat futures rose 14 cents to $6.12 3/4, near the daily high and for the week up 27 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The SRW winter wheat futures market saw a technically bullish weekly and monthly high close today, suggesting follow-through buying interest from the speculators early next week. Technical buying was featured in SRW and HRW markets today, as price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been re-established.
India is likely to record one of its warmest Marches on record, with above-average temps in key wheat growing states, potentially cutting yields, according to weather bureau sources.
The condition of the French soft wheat crop was estimated to be 84% good or excellent as of Feb. 23, from 88% a week earlier and up from 73% at the same time last year, according to FranceAgriMer.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country a more-active weather pattern in the next two weeks will help bring needed rainfall to the region, though some areas will do better than others. The greatest potential for significant rain is still in Oklahoma, eastern production areas of Kansas, southeastern production areas of Nebraska, and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Some moisture is expected in the west but will be more limited. Temperatures will be bouncing around with the active pattern. However, above-average readings will occur more-often than below average, leading to net warming of the soil. In the Northern Plains, some snow will occur in the region in the next seven days, though amounts will be mostly light. Greater snowfall is likely in the second week of the outlook. Temperatures will be variable in the next two weeks.
90-day outlook: Wheat futures have seen fund managers continue to add long positions as global production concerns linger. Constrained supplies in the Black Sea due to logistical hurdles and limited seller activity amid steady demand are also price-supportive. USDA’s individual state wheat ratings have validated a decline in crop conditions, though yield implications will remain unknown until harvest. Hard red spring wheat sees a solid technical posture and general buyer interest across wheat futures has elevated prospects of an extended rally. However, unlike in winter wheat growing regions, no major weather concerns are present in the Northern Plains.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 25 points to 65.61 cents, nearer the session high and for the week down 2 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market saw a choppy trading week but closed out the trading month near the monthly high. A price uptrend is also in place on the daily chart for May cotton. This should at least limit the downside for prices next week, if not prompt some speculators to jump on the long side.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in Texas cotton regions, dry weather will be most common through Monday before a period of wetter weather Tuesday into Mar. 12 results in beneficial increases in soil moisture in parts of the region, with western parts of western Texas and south Texas seeing the least precipitation. South Texas should receive at least some light precipitation. Much more rain will be needed in western Texas to increase soil moisture to favorable levels before the coming planting season. The San Joaquin Valley and southern Arizona will see infrequent rounds of mostly light showers during the next two weeks that should not bring enough rain to prevent the moisture from quickly being lost to evaporation.
90-day outlook: A hot U.S. producer price index reading today spooked the stock market bulls. Cotton traders will be keeping a close eye on the U.S. stock indexes in the coming months. If the stock market turns wobbly amid inflation fears, that would likely dent buying interest in cotton futures. Expectations of a smaller U.S. cotton crop this year may keep a floor just under present prices heading into spring.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.