Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 5 cents to $4.43 1/2 and nearer the session low. For the week, July corn lost 6 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market is languishing in a downtrend as July futures early this week hit a six-month low. Weather in the Corn Belt continues to lean price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said rain in the northern U.S. Plains “has been and will be great” for corn, with some heavy rain in the western and central Dakotas. Most of the U.S. Midwest will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next couple of weeks, “maintaining a very good outlook for fieldwork and crop development.” However, too much rain is expected in the lower Ohio River Valley, northern Delta and both Kentucky and Tennessee, resulting in more delays to farming activity. Meantime, Argentina will see a favorable mix of weather, although some harvest delay is possible due to rain today through the weekend. Center-west and center-south Brazil will experience net drying conditions for a while. Subsoil moisture is still rated favorably in many Safrinha corn areas, said World Weather.
Monday’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show strong U.S. corn-planting progress the past week.
30-day outlook: Progress on thawing of the U.S trade tariff tiffs with many of its global counterparts will need to continue in the coming weeks for the corn futures market to reverse course and possibly start the see prices trend up. Any serious setbacks on the apparent positive world trade relationship developments recently would probably send corn futures prices to new lows for the year.
Weather in the Corn Belt in late June will become even more critical as the important pollination phase of corn plant development begins and lasts into early July for most of the Corn Belt. That late-June/early-July period is also a timeframe when existing price trends in the corn market can be accelerated, or reversed.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported U.S. corn export sales of 1,677,200 MT for 2024/2025, up 1 percent from the previous week and 24 percent higher than the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 508,900 MT for 2025/2026 were reported. U.S. corn sales to foreign customers will need to be strong in the coming months to keep prices supported—especially with the U.S. corn crop off to a generally good start for most of the Corn Belt. The U.S. dollar index this week hit a five-week high and the USDX has begun to trend higher on the daily chart. This development is not a positive one regarding U.S. corn being more price-competitive on world trade markets.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 1 1/4 cent to $10.50, marking a 1 3/4-cent weekly loss. July meal fell $4.50 to $291.90, down $2.20 on the week. July soyoil fell 39 points to 48.93 cents, but still managed to mark a 36-point weekly gain.
5-day outlook: Soybeans started the week off strong amid weekend trade advancements between the U.S. and China, which were exacerbated by more-bullish-than-expected supply and demand data from USDA on Monday. The combination pushed old-crop to a three-month high by midweek, only to face heavy selling, ignited by rumors of lower-than-expected biomass diesel renewable volume obligations proposed by the EPA. The conjecture (not confirmed by EPA or other sources) is that EPA would announce the biodiesel mandate of 4.65 billion gallons, at least 600 million gallons below recommendations from a coalition of oil and biofuels groups. The industry has previously requested a mandate between 5.25 billion and 5.75 billion gallons. Of particular note is that the 4.65 billion gallons would be a notable jump from 3.35 billion gallons for 2025 and would be a floor, not a ceiling.
30-day outlook: USDA reported soybean planting had advanced to 48% complete as of May 11, up 18 percentage points on the week and 11 points ahead of the five-year average. Of the top 18 production states, Kentucky and Michigan were the only two states estimated to be lagging, and only by one point compared to average. Conversely, South Dakota and Minnesota producers have led the charge, ahead of the five-year average by 28 percentage points and 15 percentage points, respectively. However, weather will continue to be an important factor as the planting and growing seasons progress. World Weather Inc. forecasts rains in the Northern Plains, which will be nearly ideal for crops, while the Ohio River Valley and Delta continue to face persistent rains, further delaying fieldwork.
90-day outlook: USDA’s initial new-crop projections on Monday proved quite supportive, ultimately revealing the second-tightest balance sheet on the initial report since 2012/13. Ending stocks are projected to fall 295 million bushels, down 55 million bu. from this year. This should continue provide longer-term support to the soybean market, barring a demand snafu, as some ambiguity lingers around planted acres
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat futures fell 7 3/4 cents to $5.25 and on the week rose 3 1/4 cents. July HRW wheat fell 11 3/4 cents to $5.16 1/2 and for the week lost a penny. July HRS fell 6 3/4 cents to $5.73 3/4.
5-day outlook: It was a somewhat disappointing trading day for the winter wheat futures markets Friday, after three sessions in a row of high-range daily closes in July SRW and HRW futures for the first time since February. Still, bulls are taking the three high-range closes in a row as one signal that market bottoms may be close at hand. What traders next week will closely monitor price action in the corn and soybean futures markets, as well as Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
China has issued a warning about a high risk of dry, hot winds from next Monday to Thursday that could damage winter wheat crops in major growing regions, according to the China Meteorological Administration (CMA).
30-day outlook: Weather conditions in global wheat regions are a mixed bag but mostly price-bearish at present. World Weather Inc. today said rain in the northern U.S. Plains and southeastern Canada’s Prairies into Saturday “has and will continue to seriously improve soil moisture for long term crop development, although disruptive to fieldwork.” Dryness will remain in western Saskatchewan and some eastern Alberta and north-central Montana locations. The southwestern U.S. hard red winter wheat region will also dry down. Some partial relief to dryness is expected in parts of Nebraska, Colorado and northern Kansas, “where much more rain will be necessary.”
Meantime, winter and spring crops in much of Europe are developing well, although frequent frost and freezes in northeastern areas have limited new growth, with freezes burning back some of the vegetative development at times. Germany and some immediate neighboring areas need rain as soon as possible, but that may not occur for at least another week. Rain in the Black Sea region will help ensure good long-term crop development potential and spring planting will advance slowly around the showers, said World Weather.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported U.S. wheat export sales of 58,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025, down 16 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 746,200 MT for 2025/2026 were primarily for unknown destinations. U.S. wheat exports of 371,400 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. While the winter wheat futures markets may presently be near their market bottoms, U.S. wheat sales abroad will have to improve for sustained price uptrends in winter wheat futures markets to have a chance of developing in the coming months.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 54 points to 64.89 cents, and marked a 172-point weekly loss.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures extended losses for the fourth consecutive session, with a firmer U.S. dollar negating support from advancing equities. USDA’s initial new-crop projections earlier in the week stimulated minimal optimism, with the government estimating carryover of 5.20 billion bu., which would be up 400,000 bales from this year despite much lower acres. Meanwhile, trade uncertainty continues to linger as trade negotiations have advanced slower than expected. While cotton futures are in technically oversold territory, overhead technicals will likely continue to weigh on prices over the near-term.
30-day outlook: USDA reported cotton plantings advanced to 28% complete as of May 11, up seven points on the week but three points behind the five-year average. Texas and Georgia plantings are well ahead of year ago but slightly behind their respective five-year averages. World Weather Inc. reports West Texas planting prospects have improved due to early month rain, though more is needed, especially in dryland areas of the southwest. Some fieldwork will be accelerated in the coming week, although warmer temps are depleting soil moisture. South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend will be dry biased over the next ten days as will West Texas. Rain is needed in all of these areas and the next ten days will be dry biased. Meanwhile, field conditions in the Delta are a little too wet and drying will be interrupted periodically by more rain during the next ten days.
90-day outlook: Cotton demand will continue to be the longer-term focus. While inflation has cooled, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) easing to the lowest level since Feb. 21, robust interest rates will continue to pare demand for durable goods as interest costs scarf up consumers’ disposable income. Meanwhile, export demand has persistently lackluster over the past marketing-year, with lacking trade deals to secure U.S. cotton demand continue to lean pessimisting
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.