Corn
Price action: December corn rose 10 1/4 cents to $4.30, near the daily high and hit a seven-week high. Prices closed at a technically bullish weekly high close today. For the week, December corn gained 12 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn market bulls were hoping a big U.S. corn crop was already factored into futures prices and it appears they got their wish. USDA today pegged U.S. corn production at 16.814 billion bu., whereas the trade expected 16.502 billion bu. and compares to 16.742 billion bu. projected in the August USDA report. The agency raised its production estimate 72 million bu. from last month. It decreased yield 2.1 bu. to 186.7 bu. per acre. Harvested acres were unexpectedly increased to 90.047 million acres, up 1.356 million from August. USDA increased old-crop U.S. corn carryover 20 million bu. from last month. On new-crop corn, USDA cut estimated carryover 7 million bu. from last month but that is 81 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. The near-term technical posture for corn turned more bullish today, which will likely invite more speculators to the long side of the market next week.
30-day outlook: Harvest pressure and related commercial hedge selling will ramp up in the coming weeks, which could limit the upside in corn futures prices. However, the corn market bulls have shows keen resilience lately, despite knowing a big U.S. corn crop is getting ready to come out of the fields in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported U.S. corn export sales of 539,900 MT for 2025-26 were led by sales to Mexico. A total of 1.17 million MT in sales were carried over from the 2024-25 marketing year. Sales were well below the expected range of 900,000 MT to 2.4 MMT for 2025-26. Still, export demand for U.S. corn has been good recently. New U.S. trade deals in the coming months would likely produce even more global demand for U.S. corn.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans gained 12 3/4 cents to $10.46 1/4, nearer the daily high and the week up19 1/4 cents. December soybean meal rose 90 cents to $288.60, near the daily low and for the week up $4.60.December bean oil rose 57 points to 52.17 cents, nearer the daily high and for the week up 94 points.
5-day outlook: Today’s technically bullish weekly high closes in November soybeans and December bean oil set the stage for follow-through, chart-based buying early next week. Today’s USDA forecast for a bumper U.S. soybean crop appears to have already been factored into futures prices. The agency today forecast the U.S. soybean crop production at 4.301 billion bu., whereas the trade expected 4.262 billion bu. and compares to 4.292 billion bu. projected in the August report. USDA increased its soybean production estimate 8.5 million bu. from last month and decreased yield 0.1 bu. to 53.5 bu. per acre. USDA increased U.S. harvested acres 0.209 million acres to 80.313 million acres amid a 0.210 million acre increase to planted acres (to 81.135 million acres). USDA held old-crop soybean carryover unchanged from last month. On new-crop beans, USDA raised carryover 10 million bu. from last month and that is 12 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate.
Monday the National Soybean Processers Association (NOPA) report is expected to show members crushed 182.857 million bushels in August, according to a Reuters poll. If realized, it would be down 6.6% from July but up 15.7% from August 2024. It would also be the largest August crush on record as NOPA membership has grown amid crush expansion in recent years. Soyoil stocks as of Aug. 31 are projected at 1.298 billion pounds.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said rain in the U.S. Midwest will be infrequent and light in most areas during the next two weeks “and crop maturation and harvesting should advance well while minor declines in crop yields occur in some southern areas.” However, most crops are too advanced to see significant declines in yields.Some showers will occur on occasion, however, and a few crops should benefit from the moisture with coverage of significant rain in the drier areas before crops reach maturity not likely great enough to induce widespread increases in yields. Much of the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt would benefit from greater rain. Temperatures in the Midwest will be much warmer than normal to unseasonably warm most often through next Tuesday before the middle to late part of next week is cooler in the west, while temperatures stay above the frost threshold through the same period, said the forecaster.
Harvest pressure and the related commercial hedge selling will pick up as September progresses, which will likely keep any price rallies modest at best.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported weekly U.S. soybeans export sales of 541,100 MT for 2025-26 were primarily for unknown destinations. A total of 767,000 MT in sales were carried over from the 2024-25 marketing year. Traders expected sales of 400,000 to 1.6 MMT for 2025-26. For the soybean complex futures to see sustainable price uptrends develop, there will need to be better global demand for U.S. soybeans. Traders will remain focused on U.S.-China trade talks in the coming weeks/months as the top global soybean importer continues to shy away from U.S. new-crop soybean purchases.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 2 cents to $5.23 1/2, near the session high and for the week up 4 1/4 cents. December HRW wheat gained 4 3/4 cents to $5.14 3/4, near the daily high up 9 1/2 cents for the week. Spring wheat December futures increased 3/4 of a cent to $5.71 3/4 and were up 3 3/4 cents for the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets got some modest support from good gains in corn and soybean futures today. Short covering was featured. Look for the wheat futures markets next week to take the lead from corn and soybean futures.
USDA today cut U.S. wheat estimated 2025-26 carryover by 25 million bushels. USDA made no changes on the supply side of the 2025-26 balance sheet. On the demand side, USDA added 25 million bu. to estimated exports (to 900 million bu.) to account for the cut to carryover. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2025-26 at $5.10, down 20 cents from last month.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said additional rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and that which has recently fallen “will bode well for early season planting and emergence. Warmer temperatures will also stimulate quick germination.” U.S. northern Plains rainfall this weekend and Monday will slow late season spring wheat harvesting. However, most of the crop has already been harvested. Rain expected in Canada’s Prairies will slow harvest progress during the weekend and early next week. Some unharvested grain could be vulnerable to a quality decline especially in Saskatchewan and western Manitoba which are expected to become wettest. Meantime, drying in Russia’s spring wheat areas during the coming week will expedite crop maturation and harvesting. Some rain in western Russia should maintain a favorable autumn planting environment for areas north of Ukraine and north of Russia’s Southern Region. Both Ukraine and Russia’s Southern regions will need rain soon to support better autumn planting and emergence conditions, said World Weather.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported U.S. wheat export sales of 305,400 MT for 2025-26, down 2% from the previous week and down 43% from the four-week average. Sales were at the lower end of pre-report expectations from 300,000 to 650,000 MT. U.S. wheat sales abroad need to significantly improve to help bring the wheat markets out of their tailspins. Wheat bulls are hoping any new trade deals between the U.S. and its major counterparts will include more purchases of U.S. wheat.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 11 points to 66.83 cents and nearer the daily high. For the week, December cotton rose 80 points.
5-day outlook: Cotton bulls got little traction from a mildly friendly USDA supply and demand report today. The agency forecast U.S. cotton production at 13.224 million bales, whereas the trade expected 13.54 million bales and compares to 13.214 million bales projected in the August report. The agency unexpectedly cut cotton production 299,000 bales from last month. The average yield was reduced 5 lbs. to 862 lbs. per acre. Harvested area increased 13,000 acres to 7.369 million acres. USDA increased yield in both Texas (to 693 lbs. per acre) and Georgia (to 896 lbs. per acre). On old-crop cotton, USDA made no change to the supply- or demand-side of the balance sheet and held the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 63 cents. On new-crop cotton, USDA made minor adjustments on the supply side of the balance sheet and made a slight upside adjustment to “unaccounted” use to hold carryover steady with last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 at 64 cents, unchanged from last month.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today Texas rains will be limited over the week to 10 days, with seasonably warm temperatures “and that should lead to favorable late-season cotton development in the west and expedite maturation in the Blacklands. Harvesting in the south will advance favorably with very little rain expected. U.S. Delta crops have dried out greatly, resulting in some crop stress. A few showers are expected in the coming 10 days, although the resulting rain will not be enough to change overall crop conditions, said the forecaster. The southeastern states and Arizona will see a mix of rain and sunshine.
Meantime, Mato Grosso, Bahia and immediate neighboring areas in Brazil will continue to see good late-season harvest weather for a while. Showers are expected later this month which may encourage faster late-season fieldwork as farmers anticipate rain, said World Weather.
90-day outlook: Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report showed net U.S. cotton sales 129,600 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 33 percent below the prior 4-week average. Exports of 130,200 RB were down 16 percent from the previous week and down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. However, cotton bulls were encouraged to see some more sales to China. The progress, or lack thereof, on U.S. trade deals with its major counterparts, especially major importer China, will likely significantly influence the cotton futures market this fall.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.