Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 1 1/2 cents to $4.38 1/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw a mild corrective rebound on some tepid short covering after recent selling pressure. Bulls need to show more power this week as a bearish pennant pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart for March corn.
Today’s weekly USDA export sales report for the week of Oct. 9 saw U.S. corn sales of 1.327 million MT in the current marketing year.
High grain moisture levels and logistical problems amid Russian attacks have slashed Ukraine’s corn exports from Black Sea ports in November, which may occur in December as well, according to the farmers’ union UAC.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier maintained his 2025/26 Brazilian corn production estimate of 140 MMT but noted a neutral-to-lower bias going forward. Cordonnier also left his Argentine corn production estimate unchanged at 54 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said concern may rise over Brazil precipitation and soil moisture in corn regions as the forecast shows some areas will do better with rain than others. Most of the nation’s crops will stay in good shape, though.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are now trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.25 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.40 1/2 and then at $4.45. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.34 1/2 and then at $4.30.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 1 1/2 cents to $11.24 3/4, nearer the session high. March soybean meal gained $2.00 to $326.10, near mid-range. March soybean oil rose 12 points to 51.16 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market has paused early this week, while meal futures saw some corrective buying today, following recent selling pressure. Soy complex bulls are encouraged after President Trump Monday said on social media that he had “a very good telephone call” with China’s President Xi Jinping. He said soybeans and “other farm products” were discussed.
Today’s weekly USDA export sales report for the week of Oct. 9 saw U.S. soybean sales of 785,000 MT in the current marketing year.
Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier reports farmers in Argentina’s Buenos Aires province continue to struggle with the impact of major flooding that has blocked access to fields. He estimates around 3.7 million acres have been impacted. However, he left both his Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates unchanged at 177 MMT and 49 MMT, with a neutral bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said northern Brazil soybean regions will see frequent rounds of rain through the next two weeks, improving conditions for developing crops in the drier areas while bolstering soil moisture and slowing fieldwork. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see more sunshine than rain during the next two weeks, allowing fieldwork to advance well while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. In Argentina, the two-week outlook remains favorable for fieldwork as dry weather will be most common with one round of rain occurring Friday into Sunday that will bring timely moisture to much of the country, along with some showers during the remainder of the period. Rain Friday into Sunday along with soil moisture in place should ensure crops develop favorably in most areas during the next two weeks with exceptions likely in some western areas where subsoil moisture is still short and stress to crops may rise as moisture from recent rain is lost to evaporation and temperatures become hot Wednesday into Saturday.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit. A bearish pennant or flag pattern may be developing on the daily bar chart for March beans. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart, however. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.69 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.31 and then at $11.42 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $11.13 1/4 and then at $11.00.
March soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $335.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $329.00 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $323.90 and then at last week’s low of $321.80.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 49.24 cents. First resistance is seen at 52.00 cents and then at 52.52 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 50.32 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 4 1/2 cents to $5.38 1/4, nearer the daily high. March HRW rose 5 3/4 cents to $5.28 1/4, nearer the daily high. March spring wheat futures gained 4 3/4 cents to $4.80 ¾, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw short-covering bounces following recent downside price action. Wheat traders continue to monitor reports that progress has been made on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal. Any peace deal would likely mean more wheat being shipped out of the Black Sea region.
Today saw the weekly USDA export sales report for the week of Oct. 9 show U.S. wheat sales of 613,900 MT in the current marketing year.
The U.S. winter wheat crop rating rose three percentage points to 48% good to excellent, as of Sunday, according to USDA.
Russia’s IKAR consultancy said it expects the county’s 2026 wheat crop to range between 86 MMT and 96 MMT. For 2025, IKAR forecasts Russia’s wheat harvest at 88.5 MMT and the total grain crop at around 139 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, temperatures are expected to trend much colder in the first half of next week and the colder weather should come with a storm system. There will be importance for snow cover to occur from this system in northwestern production areas of the region to protect the winter wheat crop from threateningly cold temperatures. The cold weather next week could involve a situation where subzero Fahrenheit temperatures occur only where there is snow cover. A close monitoring of the forecast will be warranted though. In the Northern Plains, important snow events are expected in the first week of the outlook that will provide necessary snow cover for protecting crops from significantly cold temperatures. The only area that may not receive enough snow for full protection is in far northwestern Minnesota and far northeastern North Dakota. However, this is not a concern. Blizzard or near-blizzard conditions will occur today in southeastern production areas such as central Minnesota and the east-central Dakotas. The heavy snow and strong winds will lead to travel delays and livestock stress. The next snow event will then occur Friday into Sunday, mainly in southern and southwestern production areas.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.45 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.31 3/4 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.33 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.30 3/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.19 1/2 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 23 points to 64.23 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw more tepid short covering. Recent price action in March cotton begins to suggest the bears are exhausted and that a near-term price bottom is in place. More price gains this week would better suggest such.
USDA today reported weekly export sales for the week ended Oct. 9 showed net U.S. cotton sales of 159,500 running bales (RB), with China taking 16,695 RB for the 2025/26 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in California and Arizona delayed late-season farming activity and may have discolored unharvested crops. West Texas precipitation will be brief and light. Cotton quality issues in Texas will be minor. Drying in California and Arizona later this week into next week will improve cotton fiber quality; although more rain early this week will delay fieldwork and maintain some concern over fiber quality. The far southeastern corner of the U.S. cotton region will experience ongoing drought conditions which will preserve fiber quality as the late harvest advances. Late-season crops in Virginia and the Carolinas may be subjected to some wet weather for a little while today and early next week slowing fieldwork briefly.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the October high of 67.57 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 63.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 64.67 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 63.89 cents and then at 63.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.