Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3 3/4 cents to $4.18 1/4 and near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: It’s been a choppy and sideways trading week so far. Solid gains in the U.S. dollar index to another nine-week high today helped to pressure corn futures. Commercial hedge pressure as the corn harvest is in full swing is also a bearish element for corn futures at present.
World Weather Inc. today said rain during the next two weeks should not be great enough to prevent good harvest progress in much of the Midwest. Portions of the Ohio River Basin will need additional drying time before fieldwork can resume and with little rain expected through at least the next 10 days farming activity should soon increase. Temperatures during the next week will be warmer to much warmer than normal most often, with near normal temperatures in some eastern areas during the next few days while some northwestern areas are near to below normal next week.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.24 1/2 and then at $4.28. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.17 1/4 and then at $4.14.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 7 1/4 cents to $10.22 1/4, nearer the daily low. December soybean meal fell $1.10 to $276.90, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil lost 54 points to 50.94 cents, near the daily low and hit a three-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex saw selling pressure due in part to a higher U.S. dollar index that scored another nine-week high today. Commercial hedge selling as the U.S. soybean harvest is in full swing was also a bearish element today and may limit further gains in the soy complex in the near term.
World Weather Inc. today said some recent rain has disrupted harvesting, but limited precipitation over the next 9-10 days from the U.S. Delta into the eastern Midwest will ensure that fieldwork advances well once again. Some periodic rain in the northwestern corn and soybean production areas may disrupt fieldwork periodically. Meantime, South American weather will remain very good for planting in Argentina and good for crop development and some fieldwork in southern Brazil. Rain is needed in center-west and center-south Brazil and some of that will evolve this weekend into next week. Field progress in Brazil suggests planting has advanced relatively well in light of the limited rainfall of the past few weeks.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a neutral overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have some momentum on their side. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.52 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $9.93. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.30 and then at $10.40. First support is seen at $10.20 and then at this week’s low of $10.14.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $270.10. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $279.50 and then at last week’s high of $282.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $275.00 and then at $272.20.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, prices are starting to trend higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.60 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 49.90 cents and then at last week’s low of 49.20 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 3/4 cent to $5.06 1/2, at the session low. December HRW lost 3 1/2 cents to $4.89 3/4, near the daily low and closed at a contract-low close. December spring wheat futures gained 1 1/2 cents to $5.57.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets continue to struggle amid bearish charts that are keeping bulls on the sidelines. A solidly higher U.S. dollar index today that hit a nine-week high was a bearish outside market for wheat futures.
Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, is set to reduce its winter and spring wheat sown area by over 6% this year to grow more oilseeds, according to the Deputy Agriculture minister. The move comes amid low global prices, high domestic export duties and droughts affecting the top-producing areas in southern Russia.
Egypt’s state buyer purchased wheat from Kazakhstan for the first time in 15 years, according to a person familiar with the matter and port data, marking a rare shift in sourcing as the country seeks to diversify its imports.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country conditions in the next two weeks “will likely become more active due to a southwesterly flow aloft and the clashing of well below normal temperatures northwest of the region, with the unusually warm air mass that will be dominant in the region through at least the next five to seven days. Some meaningful rainfall should result from this. However, confidence is still a little low as to how significant the rain will be. Any rain will be beneficial though for unirrigated fields as this will help with germination and establishment of newly planted winter wheat.” In the Northern Plains, aggressive late-season fieldwork advancement is expected today and Friday and this will be important due to less-favorable conditions that will begin to arrive Saturday. An unusually cold air mass will begin to enter the region this weekend and precipitation involving rain and snow will arrive. Most of the snow should be in northwestern areas, such as northern Montana and northwestern North Dakota. However, this, along with rain in other areas, will lead to delays to late-season fieldwork, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends on the daily bar charts have been restarted. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.18 1/4 and then at $5.27 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.02 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at $5.00 and then at $5.08 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.88 and then at $4.80.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 44 points to 64.47 cents, near the daily low and closed at a contract low close.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market has a firmly bearish technical posture that is allowing the speculative bears to continue to press the short side. A solidly higher U.S. dollar index today that hit a nine-week high was a bearish “outside-market” factor for the cotton futures market.
World Weather Inc. today said a few showers and thunderstorms will occur in West Texas Monday and Tuesday and “may slow crop maturation and raise a little cotton quality concern, although the rain is unlikely to last very long and it may not be very heavy.” The moisture source is a tropical cyclone that dissipates in Mexico and that could lead to greater-than-expected rain, but for now the moisture will be played down as a light and brief event. U.S. Delta and southeastern crops will experience a restricted rainfall pattern over the next week to 10 days, supporting crop maturation and some harvest progress. Recent rain in the northern Delta may have discolored some of the cotton and strung some of it out its bolls, but the lack of boll rot should have limited any production loss because of heavy rain. Some of the southwestern U.S. cotton will be subjected to a quality decline because of tropical moisture that is expected from the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla and a new disturbance expected to evolve in the next few days off the southwest Mexico coast, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 65.28 cents and then at this week’s high of 65.56 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 64.16 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.