Corn
Price action: December corn fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.33 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculators today. A drop in the U.S. dollar index today and firmer crude oil prices did somewhat limit the downside in corn.
USDA this morning reported U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.662 MMT during the week ended Sept. 3, up 163,841 MT from the previous week. Net inspections topped analysts’ range of expectations from 1.2 to 1.55 MMT. Corn traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 56% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 57% last week. The U.S. corn crop is expected to be 4% harvested.
Our crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2026 U.S. corn yield by 1.0 bushel this week, to 177.0 bu/ac and with a neutral-to-lower bias.
World Weather Inc. today said the outlook for the Midwest is wetter than what was advertised late last week and regular rain is now expected through Sep. 17. Although early harvesting will be slowed, most crops are not ready to be harvested and where crops are ready to be harvested in the south rain should be infrequent enough to allow early harvesting to advance well overall. After another day or two of hot weather in portions of the southwestern and south-central Midwest, cooling will occur along with rain that will induce highly beneficial increases in soil moisture.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.43 1/2 and then at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.26 1/2 and then at $5.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales
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Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans gained 6 1/2 cents to $13.17 1/4, nearer the daily high. December soybean meal fell $5.30 to $349.80, near the daily low. December soybean oil rose 143 points to 70.70 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw profit-taking from recent gains. However, soybean bulls stepped in and bought the dip in late trading to push prices back near their session high. Bean oil was supported by the rally in crude oil prices to a three-month high. Sellers remain timid amid recent good demand from China. USDA reported U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 422,016 MT during the week ended Sept. 3, up 137,965 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within analysts’ range of expectations from 350,000 to 600,000 MT. Soy traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 57% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 58% one week ago.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his 2026 U.S. soybean yield unchanged this week at 51.5 bu/ac, with a neutral-to-lower bias. Cordonnier also reported the “soybean free” period in Mato Grosso ends September 6th, with farmers allowed to start planting their 2026-27 soybeans on September 7. Producers with irrigation are expected to plant immediately, but probably less than 5% of the soybean area in Mato Grosso is irrigated, he said.
World Weather Inc. today said a dry and warm finish for some U.S. soybeans may result in a small decline in yield. Rain in the coming week will offer a short-term bout of relief for some areas.
Technical analysis: November soybeans are still due for a significant corrective pullback soon. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $13.24 and then at $13.35. First support is seen at $13.00 and then at $12.90.
Soybean meal sees a solid price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $375.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $337.30. First resistance comes in at $353.00 and then at last week’s high of $357.70. First support is seen at $345.00 and then at $342.50.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at 72/00 cents and then at last week’s high of 73.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 68.23 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 13 cents to $7.47, near mid-range. December HRW gained 16 3/4 cents to $8.19, near mid-range. December spring wheat futures rose 9 cents to $7.54.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw buying interest following the weekend news that Russian President Putin remains committed to continuing Russia’s war in Ukraine after his latest meeting with U.S. envoys. There was no breakthrough at the Kremlin talks, reports said. Meantime, Reuters reported Ukraine’s weekly wheat, corn and barley exports rose 80% to 433,700 MT during Aug. 27–Sept. 2. That is a substantial improvement, although shipments remain about 43% below the roughly 760,000 MT moving weekly in early July.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 342,733 MT during the week ended Sept. 3, down 89,244 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within analysts’ range of expectations from 250,000 to 450,000 MT. Wheat traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, expected to show the U.S. spring wheat crop at 87% planted as of Sunday. The U.S. winter wheat crop is expected to be 4% planted.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, high pressure aloft over the southern Great Plains will break down for a little while later this week, allowing some rain to fall from Kansas into Texas and bringing slightly cooler temperatures as well. The ridge will return for a while next week, allowing hard red winter wheat areas to trend drier and warmer once again, but the system will shift to the east and break down around Sep. 20 allowing more showers and some cooling to return. Wheat planting conditions will not be ideal in this environment and summer crop conditions will remain less than favorable in parts of the region. Greater rain and cooling later this month should bring improved soil moisture for future wheat planting. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside with fluctuating temperatures. Areas with dry conditions will benefit remaining spring wheat harvesting, though areas in Montana and South Dakota may need to see more rainfall before winter wheat planting begins. Cooling temperatures may bring frost to far western Montana crop areas by September 14.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.85. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.63 and then at $7.75. First support is seen at $7.30 1/2 and then at $7.20.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $9.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.31 3/4 and then at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. First support is seen at $7.97 1/4 and then at $7.92 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 1 point to 86.32 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw mild profit-taking pressure for most of the session today. Recent losses are beginning to suggest the bulls are exhausted and that a near-term market top is in place. Cotton bulls got a little help from a dip in the U.S. dollar index today and firmer crude oil prices. Cotton traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said hot and stressful conditions for cotton continued during the holiday weekend, while rain fell on the western, central, and most of the northern Panhandle where some irrigated cotton benefited from the moisture. The rain was likely too late in the season to benefit dryland cotton with some light showers noted in parts of west Texas as well. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see net increases in crop stress and declines in yields through the next two weeks as warm to hot temperatures will continue through at least the next week and rain will be too light and infrequent to induce more than brief improvements in crop and soil conditions. Stress to crops will be briefly eased in small areas by showers Wednesday into Thursday, when much of the region receives up to 0.50” of rain and locally more with another round of well-organized showers possible Sep. 17-18. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through most of the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting occurs in a mostly favorable environment around some infrequent showers.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the contract high of 93.74 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 84.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 88.00 cents and then at 89.50 cents. First support is seen at 85.00 cents and then at 84.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.