Corn
Price action: December corn rose 3 cents to $5.36 1/2, near mid-range, hit a contract and three-year high and for the week up 28 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market bulls had another very good week, including a technically bullish weekly high close in December corn today. However, the market is now technically short-term oversold and due for a routine downside price correction soon. The European Commission on Thursday cut its monthly forecast for usable production of corn in the European Union in 2026-27 by 1.8 MMT to 50.1 MMT, a new 19-year low, according to Reuters. Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said warming is expected in the U.S. Midwest along with drier weather in a few of the areas that have excessive moisture. Western Europe crops are expecting some much-needed rain later this week into next week. Any rain that falls will not reverse the damage from summer drought, but it should help curb the declining trend. Dryness will continue in the Balkan Countries and areas east through Ukraine to Russia’s Southern Region. Other areas in Europe have a better chance for getting a little more rain in the coming 10 days. Meantime, high temperatures and excessive rain have battered China’s key corn, soybean and cotton-growing regions since mid-July, Reuters reported. The weather has threatened crop quality and yield losses, potentially boosting imports of feed grains and cotton, including from the U.S.
90-day outlook: The corn futures market has seen a run of impressive gains as traders price in a dip in expected U.S. production after weekly crop-condition ratings slipped further. Lingering conflict in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov has also raised fresh doubts about how much grain can leave the region in the coming weeks. Those export risks are compounded by already reduced supplies in the European Union after a drought-hit harvest, plus growing concern that a strengthening El Niño could trim output in key Southern Hemisphere exporters later this season and keep global balances tight
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 20 cents to $12.88, near the daily high, hit a contract and 2.5-year high and for the week up 48 1/2 cents.December soybean meal rose $8.00 to $348.90, nearer the daily high, hit a more-than-two-year high for the contract, and for the week up $23.10. December bean oil rose 255 points to 71.06 cents, near the daily high and for the week up 148 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean complex futures got more support today from solid gains in corn and wheat futures markets and be continued demand for U.S. soybeans from China, was well as from other countries. USDA this morning reported 182,000 MT of U.S. soybean sales for delivery to China and 226,000 MT to unknown destinations, along with 100,000 MT of soybean meal to Germany and 100,000 MT to the Netherlands all during the 2026-27 marketing year. Technical buying from the speculators has been featured in the soybean and meal markets this week. The concern is that bullish traders have quickly moved to one side of the boat. Monday afternoon comes the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said although regular rounds of showers will occur through the next 10 days, net drying will be common as temperatures will be warmer than normal this weekend into next week and rain will be infrequent and light most often. Most soybeans in the northwestern Corn Belt will benefit from at least some rain during the next two weeks and some small increases in yields are likely with the rain too late for a major boost in production. Other areas will see warm, dry, and favorable conditions for crop maturation with subsoil moisture adequate to support late crop development, while concerns over early harvest delays from southern Illinois and western Kentucky to Ohio will decline.
90-day outlook: In the coming months, cuts to Malaysian palm oil production, a substitute of soy oil, will be monitored as well as any impacts of the El Nino weather phenomenon. Meantime, recent tensions between the U.S. and China over trade will also heighten concerns about continued China buying of U.S. beans. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington, D.C. in September.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 23 1/4 cents to $7.84, nearer the daily high, hit a contract and three-year high and for the week up 84 3/4 cents. December HRW wheat gained 22 cents to $8.44 1/4, nearer the daily high, hit a contract and three-year high and for the week up 67 3/4 cents. December spring wheat futures climbed 12 cents to $7.69 1/4.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets today saw more strong buying interest amid worries about grain supplies coming out of the Black Sea. Consulting firm SovEcon further cut its estimate of Russian wheat exports in August by 300,000 metric tons to 1.9 million MT. That compares with 4.5 MMT a year ago and an average of 5.0 MMT. More than 95% of Russia’s combined Black Sea and Sea of Azov grain export capacity is currently shut down, the firm noted, alongside damage to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.The Russian government wants to reroute some exports, scrap a grain export duty until the end of the year, buy grain for state stocks, grant railroad transport subsidies and loan extensions to producers and use excess grain as livestock feed, though Sovecon’s Andrey Sizov told Reuters the proposed measures are unlikely to significantly support Russian grain exports or domestic prices. Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said good harvest weather has been occurring in the northern U.S. Plains and Pacific Northwest. Most other U.S. wheat harvesting is complete. Planting of 2027 wheat in the southwestern U.S. Plains should begin soon, but rain and cooler temperatures must fall first before planting begins even in some of the irrigated fields. Meantime, some relief recently has impacted a part of both Canada’s late spring wheat and barley crop as well as in a few northern U.S. Plains locations. The rain has not restored soil moisture to normal, but enough may have occurred to help late filling crops and grain quality. Too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands, possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease in a minor production region. The wet bias is expected to prevail for the next 10 days. Rain is needed in southern Russia and Ukraine to support late spring crops and to improve planting and emergence conditions for winter crops. Cold temperatures Friday through Monday in the New Lands may bring some frost to spring wheat areas.
90-day outlook: Global wheat supplies and shipping out of the Black Sea will remain in the spotlight in the coming months. HRW futures have received extra support from the Black Sea situation as alternative origins are not an easy substitute, especially in the wake of a weaker EU crop. For hard red spring wheat, the current global supply shock underpins spring wheat in addition to its own protein story. The global bid matters as HRS wheat is the milling wheat importers turn to when Black Sea and EU supplies tighten. Harvest is over half complete in the U.S., and protein levels have been reported at above-average levels.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026 and 10% of expected 2027 production sold.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production and 10% of expected 2027 production sold.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 103 points to 91.38 cents, nearer the daily low and the week up 303 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw routine profit-taking pressure from this week’s solid gains. A stronger U.S. dollar index today also limited buying interest in cotton. However, strong rallies in the grain markets, if extended next week, would likely continue to spill over into better buying interest in cotton futures. Traders will be eyeing Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said west Texas and Oklahoma will be warming back up and seeing most of the recent shower activity dissipating this weekend, returning a more stressful environment. Some showers may return late next week and into the following weekend. The U.S. Delta has been too hot and dry recently and change may not occur anytime soon. Cotton in most other U.S. production areas is in varying condition with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. Favorable harvest weather should continue in Brazil during the next ten days. Fieldwork is nearly complete in Argentina.
90-day outlook: A surprising surge in the U.S. stock market in late July and stock index prices holding not far below their summertime highs have helped out the cotton futures bulls and has put consumers in a better frame of mind heading into the fall apparel season. Recent tamer U.S. inflation reports (CPI, PPI) also assuaged consumers. However, gasoline prices at the pump which are still around $4.00 a gallon, on average, are a potentially bearish development for consumer confidence and cotton futures market in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.